National statistics

Figures to May 2023 (published 27 July 2023)

Updated 21 March 2024

The Agricultural Price Index (API) is an index of the price of agricultural outputs and inputs for the UK used to track change over time. More details on the index, including how it is produced, are in the Background section at the end of this document.

1. Key points at May 2023

Outputs

• The price index for agricultural outputs increased by 0.2% in the 12 months to May 2023.
• There were 8 upward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs recorded for May 2023. The largest upward contribution was potatoes (+1.7 percentage points), followed by cattle and calves (+1.7 percentage points), fresh vegetables (+1.5 percentage points), and fresh fruit (+1.5 percentage points).
• There were 6 downward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs recorded for May 2023. The largest downward contribution was wheat (-3.8 percentage points), followed by oilseed rape (-2.3 percentage points), and milk (-1.8 percentage points).
• The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 1.8% in the month to May 2023. In comparison, the index decreased by 2.4% in the month to April 2023.

Inputs

• In the 12 months to May 2023, the price index for agricultural inputs decreased by 6.1%.
• There were 8 upward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs recorded for May 2023. The largest upward contribution came from plant protection products (+0.7 percentage points), followed by compound feedingstuffs (+0.7 percentage points), and other goods and services (+0.5 percentage points).
• There were 4 downward contributions to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs recorded for May 2023. The largest downward contribution was fertilisers and soil improvers (-6.7 percentage points), followed by straight feedingstuffs (-1.5 percentage points), and energy and lubricants (-0.6 percentage points).
• The price index for agricultural outputs decreased by 1.3% in the month to May 2023. In comparison, the index decreased by 2.6% in the month to April 2023.

2. Summary charts for price indices

Figure 1: Monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to May 2023 (2020 = 100)

Figure 1 shows the monthly price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs since January 2020. The two indices were closely aligned throughout 2020 and much of 2021, before agricultural inputs saw considerably higher rates of inflation as prices of key inputs (particularly fertiliser and animal feed) experienced rapid price increases. Following this, the agricultural inputs index saw a period of price stabilisation while the agricultural outputs index continued to rise, peaking later in 2022. The two indices have seen month-on-month declines so far in 2023.

Figure 2: Annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and inputs to May 2023 (2020 = 100)

Figure 2 shows the annual average price indices for agricultural outputs and agricultural inputs since 2020. In 2023 (to date), the annual average price index is 4.6% higher for agricultural outputs and 0.3% lower for agricultural inputs compared with 2022. The annual price indices for inputs have consistently been higher than those for outputs since 2020, with the gap between the two series being widest in 2022.

Year	All agricultural outputs	All agricultural inputs
2020	100.0	100.0
2021	109.9	111.4
2022	130.6	143.2
2023	136.7	142.8

3. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rates

Figure 3: Contributions to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (+0.2%) from May 2022 to May 2023 (2020 = 100)

Figure 3 shows the contributions to the agricultural outputs 12-month inflation rate (+0.2%) between May 2022 and May 2023. Of the 16 output categories shown, 8 reported higher prices. The largest upward contributions came from potatoes, cattle and calves, fresh vegetables, and fresh fruit, while the largest downward contributions came from wheat, oilseed rape, milk, and barley.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Potatoes	1.7
Cattle and calves	1.7
Fresh vegetables	1.5
Fresh fruit	1.5
Pigs	1.3
Eggs	1.0
Sheep and lambs	0.3
Poultry	0.3
Sugar beet	0.0
Plants and flowers	0.0
Forage plants	-0.0
Oats	-0.1
Barley	-0.9
Milk	-1.8
Oilseed rape	-2.3
Wheat	-3.8

Notes:

• Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.

Figure 4: Contributions to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (-6.1%) from May 2022 to May 2023 (2020 = 100)

Figure 4 shows the contributions to the agricultural inputs 12-month inflation rate (-6.1%) between May 2022 and May 2023. The largest upward contributions came from plant protection products, compound feedingstuffs, and other goods and services, with the largest downward contributions coming from fertilisers and soil improvers, and straight feedingstuffs.

Category	Contribution (percentage points)
Plant protection products	0.7
Compound feedingstuffs	0.7
Other goods and services	0.5
Maintenance of materials	0.4
Materials	0.2
Buildings	0.1
Veterinary services	0.1
Maintenance of buildings	0.1
Seeds	-0.1
Energy and lubricants	-0.6
Straight feedingstuffs	-1.5
Fertilisers and soil improvers	-6.7

Notes:

• Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.

4. Contributions to the annual agricultural outputs and inputs inflation rate

Figure 5: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural outputs, UK, May 2022 to May 2023

Figure 5 shows the extent to which different agricultural commodity categories have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs over the last year. The inflation rate for agricultural outputs has fluctuated between +0.2% and +23.8% since May 2022. Most recently, the 12-month inflation rate saw upward contributions from livestock and animal products and horticulture, and downward contributions from cereals and industrial and other crops.

Figure 6: Contributions to the 12-month inflation rate in agricultural inputs, UK, May 2022 to May 2023

Figure 6 shows the extent to which different agricultural inputs have contributed to the 12-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs over the last year. The inflation rate for inputs has fallen considerably in the last 8 months amid large falls in the prices of key inputs, including fertilisers. Significant falls in wholesale gas prices have made way for these downward price movements. The inflation rate for agricultural inputs has fluctuated between -6.1% and +35.3% since May 2022, with the main contributors varying for different months. Most recently, the 12-month inflation rate saw downward contributions from all input categories except other farm costs.

More information on the contents of each group can be found in the ‘About these statistics’ section below.

5. Summary table of price indices

Table 1: Price indices for all agricultural outputs to May 2023 (2020 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate

Table 1 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural outputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural outputs split by the two main categories: crop products, and animals and animal products.

Category	May 2022	April 2023	May 2023	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural outputs	131.8	134.5	132.1	0.2	-1.8
Crop products	139.5	129.9	129.8	-6.9	-0.1
Cereals	181.6	141.6	132.6	-27.0	-6.4
Wheat	177.0	135.5	130.6	-26.2	-3.6
Barley	209.7	151.0	140.9	-32.8	-6.7
Oats	180.1	152.7	146.5	-18.7	-4.1
Potatoes	83.9	120.3	149.4	77.9	24.2
Oilseed rape	238.3	126.4	115.4	-51.6	-8.7
Sugar beet	131.4	131.4	131.4	0.0	0.0
Forage plants	81.4	71.4	71.4	-12.2	0.0
Fresh vegetables	108.5	152.1	148.9	37.1	-2.1
Fresh fruit	87.2	112.4	133.4	52.9	18.7
Animals and animal products	127.3	137.7	133.4	4.8	-3.1
Animals	119.7	136.4	133.0	11.1	-2.5
Cattle and calves	127.9	144.6	144.5	13.0	-0.1
Pigs	109.2	136.5	138.0	26.3	1.1
Sheep and lambs	138.9	136.9	148.0	6.5	8.1
Poultry	105.5	125.9	109.1	3.4	-13.4
Animal products	138.6	139.8	134.1	-3.2	-4.1
Milk	142.6	137.9	131.4	-7.8	-4.7
Eggs	116.5	153.3	153.3	31.7	0.0

Notes:

• Sugar beet prices are provided annually and with a delay of upwards of a year. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of price changes within this market.

• Egg prices are provided quarterly and with a delay of several months. Lack of change in this index, monthly or yearly, is not necessarily representative of the price changes within this market.

• This table presents several summary categories so values should not be summed to prevent double counting.

• Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.

Table 2: Price indices for all agricultural inputs to May 2023 (2020 = 100), and 12-month (year-over-year) and 1-month (month-over-month) inflation rate

Table 2 shows the 12-month and 1-month inflation rate for agricultural inputs. The same data are shown for a selection of agricultural inputs split by the two main categories: goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, and goods and services contributing to investment.

Category	May 2022	April 2023	May 2023	12-month rate (%)	1-month rate (%)
All agricultural inputs	146.6	139.6	137.7	-6.1	-1.3
Goods and services currently consumed in agriculture	151.6	142.2	140.1	-7.6	-1.5
Seeds	109.7	106.8	106.6	-2.9	-0.2
Energy and lubricants	180.3	175.7	169.8	-5.8	-3.4
Fertilisers and soil improvers	314.7	194.7	184.6	-41.3	-5.2
Plant protection products	109.2	125.9	126.4	15.7	0.4
Veterinary services	101.7	105.8	105.8	4.0	0.1
Animal feedingstuffs	152.5	149.7	148.3	-2.8	-0.9
Straight feedingstuffs	152.7	131.8	126.8	-17.0	-3.8
Compound feedingstuffs	152.4	157.3	157.5	3.4	0.1
Maintenance of materials	110.0	117.6	118.2	7.4	0.5
Maintenance of buildings	140.5	141.1	142.6	1.5	1.1
Other goods and services	110.4	115.8	116.0	5.0	0.1
Goods and services contributing to investment	124.7	127.3	127.4	2.2	0.1
Materials	119.2	121.8	121.9	2.2	0.1
Buildings	136.4	139.2	139.4	2.2	0.1

Notes:

• Price data are provisional for most agricultural inputs.

• This table presents several summary categories so values should not be summed to prevent double counting.

• Small values may be shown as zero due to rounding.

National Statistics status

National Statistics status means that our statistics meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and public value, and it is our responsibility to maintain compliance with these standards.

These statistics last underwent a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2014 (see Assessment Report 271: Statistics on Agriculture). Since the latest review by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we have continued to comply with the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have also made improvements to enhance the quality of this publication as part of our regular 5-year rebasing, which has included updating the range of prices collected based on availability and quality, and improving weighting methodology.

For general enquiries about National Statistics, contact the National Statistics Public Enquiry Service:

Email: info@statistics.gov.uk

Public enquiries: (0)84 5601 3034

You can find National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk/

About these statistics

Background

The output series reflects the price farmers receive for their products, also referred to as farm gate price. Information is collected for all major crops (for example wheat and potatoes) and livestock and animal products (for example sheep, milk and eggs).

The input series reflects the price farmers pay for goods and services. The series is in two groups: goods and services currently consumed; and goods and services contributing to investment. Goods and services currently consumed refer to items that are used up in the production process, for example fertiliser or seed. Goods and services contributing to investment relate to items that are required but not consumed in the production process, such as tractors or buildings.

Data uses

Farmers use the Agricultural Price Index to help set prices for their outputs and monitor the prices paid for inputs. Analysts in Government, industry specialists, consultants, economists and academics use the data to assess the impact that price changes have on industry and consumers.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) uses API data in the production of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is one of the key measures of inflation.

Methodology

Price data

Defra collect prices from a wide variety of sources to produce the monthly API. This includes data from our own surveys, information from the Horticultural Marketing Inspectorate (HMI), Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), and the ONS. For some items we only receive quarterly or annual data, for example, electricity prices. When no new data are available estimates are made based on previous values until new data becomes available. When new data become available, historical revisions are made and a note is added in the ‘What you need to know about this release’ section.

In order to maintain continuity in these statistics, the Agricultural Price Index is produced in accordance with the European Statistical System.

Weights

Each price point is assigned a weight which reflects its contribution to the overall index. The weights for each item represent their annual monetary value from the Agricultural Accounts. For example, if the annual value of animal feed purchased is three times more than fertilisers then the annual weight for animal feed will also be three times more than for fertiliser. Where monthly data is available, monthly and quarterly weights for outputs reflect the pattern of sales volumes across the year. For example, if the volume of sales for apples in October is double that in June, then the October weight for apples is double the weight for June. Monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The weights are recalculated every five years to reflect more recent data. The March 2023 index was the first to be produced using weights based on 2020, replacing weights based on 2015.

Contributions

It is often of interest to estimate the effect of a group or item on the change in the agricultural outputs or inputs index. The contribution of a group or item to a change in the all items index over a given period of time is defined as the change that would have occurred in the all items index if that component had undergone its observed change but all other component indices had remained frozen at their values at the start of the period (and all weights are kept the same). The effect of each component depends on both the size of its change and its weight.

The formula for calculating the contributions to changes in the agricultural inputs inflation rate differs from the agricultural outputs inflation rate, reflecting the fact that monthly and quarterly weights for input items do not vary within the year. The formulas for calculating contributions to changes in all items index with seasonal and non-seasonal weights can be found in the 2007 Technical Manual on Consumer Price Indices published by the ONS.

The categories shown in Figure 5 and 6 were created by aggregating the following categories:

• Fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, flowers and plants, and potatoes into horticulture.

• Industrial crops, forage plants and other crop products into industrial and other crops.

• Fertilisers and soil improvers, plant protection products and seeds into crop-related costs.

• Animal feedingstuffs and veterinary services into livestock-related costs.

• Maintenance of buildings, maintenance of materials, other goods and services, buildings and materials into other farm costs.

User engagement

As part of our ongoing commitment to compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, we wish to strengthen our engagement with users of these statistics and better understand the use made of them and the types of decisions that they inform. Consequently, we invite users to make themselves known, to advise us of the use they do, or might, make of these statistics, and what their wishes are in terms of engagement. Feedback on this notice and enquiries about these statistics are also welcome. Feedback can be provided via this survey as well as by phone or email.

Contact details

Responsible statistician: Katie Fisher

Email: prices@defra.gov.uk

Public enquiries: (0)20 8565 4419

Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Room 201, Foss House, 1-2 Peasholme Green
York
YO1 7PX