Research and analysis

Weak signals and trend analysis: horizon scanning

Published 28 August 2025

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

What was the challenge?

Defra Futures wanted to gain a clearer understanding of emerging changes beyond Defra’s immediate remit by capturing weak signals of change, emerging trends, and global mega trends. This could then be used to provide actionable insights on emerging opportunities and risks to inform decision-making at both executive and programme levels. Defra Futures also aimed to raise awareness and literacy around futures work, embed long-term thinking into policy and strategy and enhance industry practices in horizon scanning and trend development.

What was the approach? 

To achieve these objectives, 3 interlinked products were created:

• Horizon Scanning – An ongoing scanning tool to identify and analyse weak signals of change.
• Emerging Trends Report – A bi-annual publication highlighting key developments and their implications.
• Updated Global Megatrends – A refreshed report on long-term trends with an updated methodology.

Product 1: Horizon Scans

The Horizon Scans were built from weak signals, identified by a diverse team of scanners covering all global regions. Weak signals were captured on a daily basis, and each fortnight, 6 of the most novel signals were selected and developed into formal Horizon Scans including a brief analysis. The team intentionally targeted fringe areas looking at subcultures to help source a diverse set of data. In order to make the insights gathered effective and usable, scans were tagged with a key ‘use case’ to help Defra colleagues quickly identify whether a scan was for information only, whether it spoke to an opportunity or risk, or whether it might give insight into an area for research prioritisation.

Product 2: Emerging Trends Reports

As the Horizon Scans were created, they were clustered and tagged with recurring topics on an ongoing basis. This created the foundation for the generation of a set of ‘trends’ every 6 months. Trends were longlisted, researched further, and then shortlisted before a final set of 6 were selected based on their relevance to Defra’s priority outcomes and key active policy areas. These trends were then developed into 2 Emerging Trend publications. Each Trend included an analysis and proposed an origin point of the trend, describing its evolution, and surfacing signals of change linked to the trend. Emerging trends also each had a ‘Future Artefact’ — a visual representation of something we might expect to see in the future should this trend continue to grow. These artefacts were developed through creatively extrapolating each emerging trend into future scenarios and then visualising objects, products, behaviours, or situations which made the trends more tangible. Each artefact aimed not to be an accurate representation of the future, but instead aimed to help provoke critical reflection of some of the key issues or tensions related to each trend.

Product 3: Global Megatrends Report

The Global Megatrends focussed on much larger drivers of change, several orders of magnitudes larger than the Emerging Trends. These Global Megatrends were identified using a literature review (including Defra’s past research into Global Megatrends) and then were refined through a series of 12 challenge sessions with international subject matter experts. The Emerging Trends were mapped against each Global Megatrend, indicating whether they were likely to support (i.e. speed up) or oppose (i.e. slow down) the respective megatrends. Rather than attempting to forecast where the Global Megatrends are heading (as is typical), the team developed a new methodology to determine the ‘origin points’ of each, shifting the focus onto the historical context of each Global Megatrend. Using a tight definition of ‘global megatrend’ was key to this, as we were able to argue that the point of ‘origin’ for each mega trend was the point from which a sustained change over time was visible in at least 2 continents, across at least 2 sectors or systems. This ‘origin points’ methodology helped demonstrate that several Global Megatrends which shape our current context today have in fact been present for decades, centuries, or even in some cases millennia. This Report was launched at a Defra event in November 2024, alongside a panel discussion on how such futures insights could be applied in government.

What was the impact? 

• At the time of writing, 556 Defra staff have engaged with the materials. Over 500 people within and outside Defra were engaged through presentations, briefings and workshops, which enhanced their understanding of emerging opportunities and risks while increasing their exposure to futures thinking.
• Insight produced across this work has been used by various policy teams within Defra to inform analysis and dialogue around future operating environments.
• The processes set up as part of this work provided Defra with a clear system to continue to deliver horizon scanning and trend analysis work on a periodic basis.

Written by Andthen for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, March 2025.