Research and analysis

Water situation: March 2026 summary

Updated 13 April 2026

Applies to England

March was a drier month with most of England receiving below average rainfall with England, as whole, receiving 83% of the long term average (LTA). Most hydrological areas were classed as normal or below normal for the time of year, with those in the north-west ranging from normal to notably high. In response to these drier conditions, soil moisture deficits (SMD) began to develop across central, east and southern England, with soils in parts of the south now slightly drier than would be expected. Monthly mean river flows decreased at almost all sites in March, with most sites classed as normal for the time of year. Groundwater levels were classed as normal or higher across England showing the ongoing impacts of the wet winter. Reservoir storage remains normal or higher across much of England, with 11 reservoirs full.

1. Rainfall

During March, England received 48.5mm of rainfall which represents 83% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA. The majority of hydrological areas received below average rainfall during March, with above average totals recorded across the whole of north-west England. The wettest hydrological area by percentage of LTA was the Esk in Cumbria, which received 160% of the LTA (212.1mm). At the opposite end of the country, Thanet Chalk in south-east England was the driest after just 13.3mm of rain fell, which is 37% of the LTA.

Rainfall was classed as normal in half of hydrological areas in March. In north-west England, 3 areas were above normal for the time of year, while 6 were notably high. In contrast, more than a third of hydrological areas were classed as below normal for the time of year, almost all of which were found in central, east, south-east and south-west England. Four hydrological areas in Kent were classed as notably low for the time of year.

For the 3-month cumulative period rainfall was classed as above normal or higher in north-west and north-east England, with just a handful of normal areas. Across the rest of England, rainfall for the period was mostly classed as notably or exceptionally high. Over the past 6 months, rainfall was classed as notably or exceptionally high across almost all of England. A handful of areas in coastal areas of south-east and east England were classed as normal for the period. Exceptionally high rainfall totals stretched from south-west England through central England to the east coast. During the 12-month cumulative period, rainfall was classed as normal or higher across most of England. The exceptions were a few areas in east England which were classed as below normal. Rainfall was notably high and exceptionally high during this period in south-west and north-west England.

At a regional scale, rainfall totals for March were only above average in north-west England, where 136% of the LTA was received. All other regions received near or below average rainfall, with south-east recording just 59% of the LTA. Rainfall was classed as below normal for the time of year in east and south-east England, while north-west England was classed as above normal. All other regions were normal for the time of year, as was England as a whole.

2. Soil moisture deficit

After a drier than average March for much of England, SMD had begun to develop in central, east, south-west and south-east England. In north-west and north-east England where conditions had been wettest, SMD remained near zero.

At the end of March, soils were slightly wetter than average in north-west and north-east England. In contrast soils were around average in central and east England, and were slightly drier than expected in the south-east and south-west.

3. River flows

Monthly mean river flows decreased at almost all indicator sites in March, with only a handful of sites in north-west England recording an increase. Three-quarters of sites were classed as normal for the time of year. The River Gipping, in east England, was the only site classed as below normal for the time of year. Ten sites were classed as above normal, including sites in north-west, south-west and east England. Flows in 3 groundwater dominated catchments were notably high, the River Lud in east England, and the Rivers Kennet and Itchen in south-east England.

The regional index sites were almost all classed normal for the time of year. The exception was the River Lune at Caton in north-west England where monthly mean river flows were classed as above normal. This was also the only regional index site to record an increase in flows during March, with all other sites recording a decrease in monthly mean flows.

4. Groundwater levels     

At the end of March, groundwater levels have begun to fall at just under half of the indicator sites we report on, as increasing SMD and ongoing dry weather brought an end to the recharge season in some aquifers. Levels continued to rise elsewhere, although these increases were generally small. All sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Nine sites were classed as normal, while 5 were above normal, with the majority of these sites found in chalk aquifers. Notably high groundwater levels were recorded at 9 sites spread across England, from Woodleys in the south-west (Otter Valley Sandstone) to Aycliffe in the north-east (Skerne Magnesian Limestone). Three sites were classed as exceptionally high for the time of year. This included Grainsby in the Northern Chalk in east England which recorded the highest end of March level since records began at the site in 1977. 

Our major aquifer index sites reflected this picture, with half increasing, while half decreased. In sandstone aquifers, Skirwith (Carlisle Basin and Eden Valley Sandstone) was classed as normal for the time of year, while Weir Farm (Bridgnorth Sandstone) was exceptionally high. Jackaments Bottom in the Burford Jurassic Limestone was classed as normal for the time of year. In chalk aquifers, the situation was mixed, with:

• Redlands (Cam and Ely Ouse Chalk) classed as normal
• Little Bucket (East Kent Stour Chalk) and Stonor Park (South West Chilterns Chalk) classed as above normal
• Dalton Estate (Hull and East Riding Chalk) and Chilgrove (Chichester Chalk) classed as notably high

5. Reservoir storage

At the end of March, reservoir storage had increased at just over a third of the reservoirs and reservoir groups we report on. The largest increases were seen in east England, where Abberton increased by 14% and Hanningfield increased by 10%. Twelve reservoirs or groups saw no change during March, as they remain full. The remaining 7 reservoirs recorded small decreases at the end of March. The majority of reservoirs were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Five sites were classed as below normal or lower, all of which have seen refill constrained by operational or water quality issues. Storage has increased in the Lower Thames Group in the south-east and at Hanningfield in east England, but they were classed as below normal for the time of year. In east England, both Abberton and Grafham recorded increased storage, but were classed as notably low for the time of year. The Dove Group in central England remains at exceptionally low levels, after a small decrease in storage at the end of March, refill has been constrained by operational and infrastructure impacts.

Regional reservoir stocks increased across England, except in the north-east where a small decrease was recorded. Storage was 89.5% in east England, making it the lowest of the regions. All other regions were near or above 95% full. For England as whole, storage increased by 1% during March to 95.2% at the end of the month, which is 1.9% above the LTA for the time of year.

6. Forward look

April is expected to be changeable, with spells of rain or showers interspersed with drier periods. Wetter conditions are more likely at times in western and northern England, while the south and east may see longer drier intervals. Temperatures are expected to be around or slightly above average, although brief cooler spells remain possible. Later in the month, there is an increased likelihood of more slowly evolving weather patterns, though confidence in the detail remains low.

For the 3‑month period from April to June, the UK is more likely to see a warmer spring and early summer rather than cooler conditions with a greater chance of heatwaves in early summer. However, cooler spells remain possible during early spring. The likelihood of rainfall for the period is close to seasonal normal, with no strong signal for a particularly wet or dry spring and early summer.

7. Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of September 2026, river flows across England have the greatest chance of being normal or above normal for the time of year. A number of sites, mainly in the south-east and east, retain some risk of below normal flows.

By the end of March 2027, river flows are most likely to be within the normal range at the majority of indicator sites across England. However, there remains some probability of below normal or notably low flows at several sites, particularly in parts of the south-east, east, north-east and south-west.

8. Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of September 2026, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being normal or higher across much of south-east, east, north-west and central England. However, at a limited number of sites in south-east, east, south-west and north-east England, groundwater levels are most likely to be below normal or lower.

By the end of March 2027, groundwater levels across England are most likely to be within the normal range at the majority of indicator sites. However, there remains some risk of below normal or lower groundwater levels at several sites, particularly in parts of the south-east, east, south-west and north-east.

Author: National Water Resources Hydrology Team, nationalhydrology@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.