Research and analysis

Water situation: July 2026 summary

Updated 11 August 2026

Applies to England

July was the driest on record for England, with just 10% of long term average (LTA) rainfall being received. Almost all hydrological areas were classed as exceptionally low for the time of year. Soil moisture deficits (SMD) continued to increase, and by the end of July were nearing the historic maximum since records began. Monthly mean river flows decreased at all sites, and the majority were classed as below normal or lower for the time of year. Four indicator sites reached their lowest July month mean river flow on record. Groundwater levels continue their seasonal decline, and most were classed as normal or lower for July. Reservoir storage decreased by 16% and ended the month much lower than average for the time of year.

1. Rainfall

It was the driest July for England since records began in 1836, as just 6.5mm of rainfall was received, which is 10% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA for the time of year. All hydrological areas received below average rainfall during July. The wettest hydrological area by percentage of LTA was the Tweed in north-east England, which received 62% of the LTA (45mm). In contrast, Isle of Wight, River Medway, Sussex Coast and Thanet Chalk in south-east England were joint driest having received 0% of the LTA for the month (less than 0.2mm). 

Rainfall was classed as exceptionally low in all but 4 hydrological areas in July. The exceptions were Esk (Cumbria), Derwent (north-west), Northumbria North Sea tributaries which were notably low, and the Tweed which was below normal. One hundred and thirteen hydrological areas recorded their driest July since records began in 1871. Another 18 were ranked in the top 5 driest Julys on record.

The 3-month cumulative period rainfall totals were classed as below normal or lower across almost all of England, with exceptionally low totals along the east coast and around the Welsh border. In north-west England and parts of the south-west, some catchments were classed as normal for the period. Over the 6-month cumulative period, more parts of northern and south-west England were classed as normal or higher for the period. Much of the rest of England was below normal over this period, although north-east, east and south-east England had more widespread notably or exceptionally low totals. During the 12-month cumulative period, much of England was classed as normal, with above normal or higher totals in south-west, central and north-west England. In east and parts of south-east England, some areas were below normal or lower for the period.

At a regional scale, rainfall totals for July were classed as exceptionally low across all regions and for England as a whole. Rainfall for July was the driest on record for all regions except the north-west where it was the second driest on record. It was the fifth consecutive month of below average rainfall in east and central England, and for the east of England it was the driest March to July period since records began in 1871.

From this month we are including two standardised drought indices which are internationally recognised by the World Meteorological Organisation within the report. More information about the indices can be found in the glossary at the end of the full report. 

Standardised precipitation index results for July show that conditions are extremely dry across almost all of England, with a handful of hydrological areas in north-west and north-east England severely or moderately dry. The Tweed was the only area to be near normal for the time of year. 

Standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) results were also extremely dry for July, in all but a few hydrological areas in the north of England. Over the 3-month and 6-month periods, SPEI highlights the impact of ongoing warm temperatures and a series of heatwaves on conditions across England, with widespread severely dry or extremely dry totals.

2. Soil moisture deficit

Following a month of very dry and warm conditions, SMD continued to increase to the end of July. Deficits were largest in the south-east, around The Wash in east England, and along the Welsh border. In the far north-west and north-east, deficits were slightly smaller.

At the end of the month, soils were much drier than average across the whole of England. In many regions, SMD is now nearing the historic maximum on record since 1961.

3. River flows

Monthly mean river flows decreased at all indicator sites we report on in July, and all sites were classed as normal or lower for the time of year. Just four sites were classed as normal for the time of year, including the River Avon in central England, the River Lud in east England, and the groundwater fed Rivers Itchen and Ver in south-east England. River flows were classed as below normal at 18 sites (33% of the total), and notably low at 19 sites (35%). Thirteen sites (24%) across England were classed as exceptionally low for the time of year.

This included 4 sites that recorded their lowest July monthly mean flow on record (record start given in brackets):

• Ashbrook on the River Weaver in north-west England (1977)
• Buttercrambe on the River Derwent in north-east England (1973)
• Colney on the River Yare in east England (1970)
• Redbrook on the River Wye in Wales (1969)

All regional index sites were classed as below normal or lower for the time of year. The Bedford Ouse in east England, South Tyne in north-east England and the Great Stour in the south-east were all classed as below normal in July. The River Dove in central England, River Lune in north-west England and the River Exe in the south-west were all notably low for the time of year. At Kingston, the naturalised monthly mean flows for the River Thames were classed as exceptionally low for the time of year.

4. Groundwater levels   

At the end of July, groundwater levels had decreased at almost all of the indicator sites we report on, as would be expected as groundwater resources continue their seasonal decline. Eleven sites (42% of the total) were classed as normal for the time of year and 7 (27%) were classed as below normal. Two sites (8%) were classed as notably low, including Wetwang in the Hull and East Riding Chalk of north-east England. At the other end of the scale, 2 sites (8%) were classed as above normal, 3 (12%) were notably high, and Coxmoor in the Idle Torne Sandstone in central England was exceptionally high for the time of year.

All major aquifer index sites recorded a decrease in groundwater levels at the end of July. Four chalk aquifer sites were classed as normal for the time of year:

• Dalton Estate (Hull and East Riding Chalk) in north-east England
• Little Bucket (East Kent Stour Chalk) in south-east England
• Redlands (Cam and Ely Ouse Chalk) in east England
• Stonor Park (South West Chilterns Chalk) in south-east England

Chilgrove in the Chichester Chalk in south-east England was below normal for the time of year. Weir Farm in the Bridgnorth Sandstone in central England was notably high for the time of year. In contrast, Skirwith in the Carlisle Basin and Eden Valley Sandstone in north-west England was below normal for the time of year. Jackaments Bottom in the Burford Jurassic Limestone of south-east England was notably low for the time of year.

5. Reservoir storage

At the end of July, reservoir storage had decreased at all of the reservoirs or reservoir groups that we report on. The largest decrease was recorded at Clywedog where storage fell by 29% when compared to the previous month. The smallest decreases were seen at Draycote in central England and Farmoor in the south-east, with 7% changes in both reservoirs. Almost all reservoirs were classed as below normal or lower at the end of July, with just 5 classed as normal for the time of year. Sixteen were classed as below normal and 4 across east and central England were notably low. Six reservoirs or groups were classed as exceptionally low for the time of year, all of which were found in central, south-east and south-west England

Regional reservoirs stocks decreased across England, with all regions recording a decrease of more than 10%, and the north-west by 20%. Storage for all regions is below average for the time of year. For England as a whole, storage decreased by 16%, with a rate of decline similar to that seen during previous droughts in July 2018 and July 2022. Storage was 69.8% at the end of July which is 11.2% below average for the month, however it remains slightly above storage at the same time in 2025.

6. Forward look

August started with a continuation of the warm, dry and settled conditions many experienced throughout July. Some showers brought small rainfall totals, with the highest values found in north-west and north-east England. However, in east and south-east England conditions remained very dry with no notable rain recorded. These conditions are expected to remain into the middle of the month, before more changeable conditions are anticipated, with the chance of some rainfall reaching northern parts of England. High pressure is then expected to return for the rest of August, although some rainy interludes may move east and thundery showers may drift in from the continent. However, rainfall totals are expected to remain below normal for the time of year. Temperatures will be above average, with spells of hot weather, particularly in the south.

For the 3-month period from August to October in the UK, the chance of the period being warm is higher than normal, which brings a risk of heatwaves, particularly early in the period. There is an increased chance of conditions in the UK being drier than average, but later in the period the chance of rain and wind related impacts becomes slightly higher.

6.1 Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of September 2026, river flows have the highest chance of being below normal or lower across almost all of England, except in the south-east where river flows have a higher than average chance of being normal for the time of year.

By the end of March 2027, river flows in most regions of England have the highest chance of being below normal or lower, especially in east and central England. The exception is south-east England, where normal or above normal flows are more likely.

6.2 Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of September 2026, groundwater levels in central England have a higher than average chance of being above normal or higher. In the south-east and north-east, groundwater levels are projected to have the highest chance of being normal for the time of year. In south-west and east England, groundwater levels have the highest chance of being below normal or lower.

By the end of March 2027, groundwater levels in central, south-west and north-west England have a higher than average chance of being above normal or higher. In east, south-east and north-east England, groundwater levels have the highest chance of being below normal or lower.

Author: National Water Resources Hydrology Team, nationalhydrology@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.