Research and analysis

Water situation: January 2026 summary

Published 11 February 2026

Applies to England

January was a wet month for much of England as it received 150% of the long term average (LTA) rainfall for the month. Almost all hydrological areas received above average rainfall, and three-quarters were classed as notably or exceptionally high for the time of year. Soils were very wet across most of England, although some small soil moisture deficits (SMD) remained around London. Monthly mean river flows increased at just over half of sites, and almost all sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Groundwater levels continued to rise across England, and more than half of sites were classed as above normal or higher. Reservoir storage increased at almost all the reservoirs or reservoir groups that we report on, and storage for England was 90%.

1. Rainfall

During January, England received 124mm of rainfall which represents 150% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA for the time of year. Almost all hydrological areas received above average rainfall during January, with all hydrological areas that received less than average rainfall found in north-west England. The wettest hydrological area by percentage of LTA was the Middle Dorset Stour in south-west England which received 245% of the LTA (257mm). In contrast, the driest was the Wyre and Lune in the north-west which received just 73% of the LTA (106mm).

Rainfall was classed as notably or exceptionally high in three-quarters of hydrological areas in January. All hydrological areas in south-west and south-east England were within these 2 bands, with the majority classed as exceptionally high. Twenty hydrological areas were classed as normal, all of which were found in central, north-west and north-east England. Fourteen were classed as above normal for the time of year, the majority of which were in north-east England. Eight hydrological areas in the south-west of England recorded the wettest January since records began 1871. Fifty-six hydrological areas recorded the wettest January since 2014.

For the 3-month cumulative period, rainfall totals were above normal or higher across most of England, with a band of exceptionally high totals spanning from the south-west, through central England to the north-east. Within this band, 7 hydrological areas recorded the highest November to January rainfall total since records began in 1871. The only exceptions were around the Thames estuary and in parts of the north-west, where rainfall totals for the period were classed as normal. Over the past 6 months, cumulative totals were mostly above normal or higher, with exceptionally high totals in parts of south-west and north-west England. In east England and in Kent, rainfall totals were classed as normal for the period. Over the last 12 months, rainfall was mainly classed as normal, except in east and north-east England where totals were below normal or lower, and south-west and north-west England where totals were above normal or higher.

At a regional scale, rainfall totals for January were classed as normal or higher for all regions. Rainfall in the north-west was classed as normal, and it was the only region to receive rainfall below the LTA. North-east England was classed as above normal, while east and central England were both classed as notably high. South-west and south-east England were classed as exceptionally high for the time of year, both recording their wettest January since 2014. England as a whole was classed a notably high, and it was the third consecutive month of above average rainfall for England.

2. Soil moisture deficit

Following another wet month for many, SMD were near zero across England, with the only small deficits remaining around London.

At the end of January, SMD were around average across most of England. In parts of south-east, east, central and north-east England, soils are now slightly wetter than would be expected at this point in the year.

3. River flows

Monthly mean river flows increased at just over half of indicator sites in January, with most of these sites found in east, south-east and south-west England. Almost all sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. The 3 exceptions were classed as below normal and were the River Burn in east England, and the Rivers Derwent and Ribble in the north-west. Twenty-three sites across England were classed as normal for the time of year, including most sites in north-west and north-east England. Ten sites were classed as above normal for the time of year, and 10 were classed as notably high. Eight sites, all in south-east and south-west England were classed as exceptionally high.

Two sites in south-west England recorded their highest January monthly mean river flow on record (record start given in brackets):

• River Tone at Bishops Hull (1961)
• Middle River Stour at Hammoon (1968)

All regional index sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. The Great Stour at Horton in south-east England was classed as notably high, while the naturalised flows on the River Thames at Kingston were classed as normal for the time of year. In the south-west, the River Exe at Thorverton was normal. The South Tyne at Haydon Bridge in north-east England and the Bedford Ouse at Offord in east England were both classed as normal for the time of year. The River Dove at Marston-on-Dove was above normal for the time of year. No data was available for the River Lune at Caton.

4. Groundwater levels   

At the end of January, groundwater levels had increased at the majority of our indicator sites since December. Almost all sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. The only exception was Washpit Farm (North West Norfolk Chalk) in east England which remained below normal for the time of year despite levels rising. Eleven sites were classed as normal, the majority of which were found in southern chalk aquifers or permo-triassic limestone aquifers in the western parts of England. Almost all of the 7 sites classed as above normal for the time of year were in central and north-east of England, including Coxmoor (Idle Torne permo-triassic Sandstone), Grainsby (Northern Chalk) and Aycliffe (Skerne Magnesian Limestone). Two sites were classed notably high, including Houndean Bottom in the Brighton Chalk in south-east England. Four sites were classed as exceptionally high for the time year, including Woodyates in the Upper Dorset Stour Chalk in south-west England which recorded the highest end of January groundwater level since records at the site began in 1942.

Our major aquifer index sites reflected the overall picture, with all sites classed as normal or higher. Skirwith in the Carlisle Basin and Eden Valley Sandstone in north-west England was normal for the time of year, while Weir Farm in the Bridgnorth Sandstone in central England was notably high. Jackaments Bottom in the Burford Jurassic Limestone in south-east England was normal for the time of year. Most of our chalk aquifer index sites were normal for the time of year. Dalton Estate Well in north-east England (Hull and East Riding Chalk) was above normal. Chilgrove in the Chichester Chalk in the south-east was classed as exceptionally high for the time of year as groundwater levels continue to recover quickly from notably low levels at the end of November 2025. No data was available for Redlands Hall in east England at the end of the month.

5. Reservoir storage

At the end of January, reservoir storage had increased at the majority of the reservoirs and reservoir groups that we report on. Storage at 7 reservoirs or groups increased by more than 10% to the end of January, including Bewl and Ardingly reservoirs in south-east England which both increased by more than 20%. Ten reservoirs are now completely full. Almost half of reservoirs were classed as normal for the time of year, including most of the reservoirs in the south-west. Six reservoirs were classed as above normal, most of which were in central and south-west England. Vyrnwy which supplies north-west England from Wales was classed as notably high, while the Teesdale Group in the north-east was exceptionally high. Four sites were classed as below normal for the time of year, including Farmoor and the Lower Thames Group in south-east England. Storage at the Pennines group in the north-west and at Grafham and Abberton in east England was classed as notably low. The Dove group in central England (refill constrained by short term infrastructure impacts) and Hanningfield in east England were both classed as exceptionally low for the time of year. 

Reservoir stocks remained the same or increased in all regions during January, with south-west England seeing the largest increase of 10%. Storage is the lowest in east England, with reservoirs 79% full. North-east England has the highest storage of 95%. For England as a whole, storage at the end of January was 90%, having increased by 4% during the month. 

6. Forward look

February began with wet, unsettled weather for many, with the wettest conditions in the south-west where more than a third of the LTA rainfall for the month had been received in the first 3 days. These changeable, wet conditions are expected to remain as frontal zones move in from the Atlantic throughout the month. Showers and longer spells of potentially heavy rain are likely, with some occasional drier interludes. Temperatures are expected to be close to average or a little milder than normal, with a reduced chance of prolonged cold spells.

For the 3-month period from February to April, conditions are expected to be around average with the likelihood of the period being wet only slightly higher than normal. Although the chance of cold periods remains, it is less likely than normal or mild conditions.

6.1 Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of March 2026, river flows in all parts of England have the greatest chance of being normal or higher for the time of year. In south-east, east and central England, river flows have a greater than normal chance of being above normal or higher.

By the end of September 2026, river flows in all parts of England are most likely to be normal or higher for the time of year. In south-east and central England, there is an increased chance of above normal or higher flows.

6.2 Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of March 2026, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being above normal or higher in all parts of England except the north-west, where groundwater levels are most likely to be in normal ranges.

By the end of September 2026, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being above normal or higher in south-west and east England. In contrast, groundwater levels in north-east England are most likely to be below normal or lower. In the rest of England, groundwater levels are most likely to be in normal ranges.

Author: National Water Resources Hydrology Team, nationalhydrology@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.