Research and analysis

Water situation: February 2026 summary

Updated 11 March 2026

Applies to England

February was another wet month for much of England as it received 170% of the long term average (LTA) rainfall. Almost all hydrological areas received above average rainfall, and more than three-quarters were classed as notably or exceptionally high for the time of year. Soils remain very wet across most of England. Monthly mean river flows increased at more than four-fifths of sites, and all sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Groundwater levels continued to rise at the majority sites across England, and more than three-quarters of sites were classed as above normal or higher. Reservoir storage increased at all but one the reservoirs or reservoir groups that we report on, and storage for England was 94%.

1. Rainfall

During February, England received 112.5mm of rainfall which represents 170% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA. All but 3 hydrological areas received above average rainfall during January, with all the 3 hydrological areas that received less than average rainfall in north-west England. The wettest hydrological area by percentage of LTA was the Tame catchment in central England which received 273% of the LTA (131.6mm). In contrast, the driest was the Eden catchment in the north-west which received 91% of the LTA (102.1mm).

Rainfall was classed as exceptionally or notably high in more than three-quarters of hydrological areas in February with all hydrological areas in both south-west and central England within these 2 bands. Twenty-five hydrological areas were classed as above normal. Only 6 hydrological areas were classed as normal for the time of year, the majority of which were in north-west England.

For the 3-month cumulative period, rainfall totals were above normal or higher across most of England, with a band of exceptionally high totals spanning across the south-west, south-east and central England. Seven hydrological areas, predominately in south-west England recorded the highest 3-month (December to February) winter rainfall total since records began in 1871. Over the past 6 months, cumulative totals were above normal or higher in all but 2 hydrological areas with highest ever 6-month cumulative totals (September to February) recorded in 11 south-west hydrological areas. Over the last 12 months, rainfall was classed as normal or above normal at more than three-quarters of hydrological areas. Twenty-two hydrological areas in south-west and north-west England rainfall was classed as exceptionally or notably high. Five sites, in east and south-east England, recorded below normal rainfall.

At a regional scale, rainfall totals for February classed as normal or higher for all regions. Rainfall in central England was classed as exceptionally high. Monthly rainfall for east, south-west and south-east England was classed as notably high for the time of year.  Rainfall in north-east England was classed as above normal while in the north-west it was classed as normal, England as a whole was classed a notably high. Over the 4-month cumulative period (November 2025 to February 2026) it was the wettest on record in central and south west England, it was also the fourth consecutive month of above average rainfall for England.

2. Soil moisture deficit

Following another wet month across England soils remain saturated, with SMD near zero across the country.

At the end of February, SMD were around average across most of England. In parts of south-east, east and central England, soils are now slightly wetter than would be expected at this point in the year.

3. River flows

Monthly mean river flows increased at more than four-fifths of indicator sites in February and all sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Twenty-one sites were classed as exceptionally high and a further 20 sites, were classed as notably high for the time of year. Seven sites across England were classed as normal for the time of year, predominantly in north-west and north-east England and another 7 sites were classed as above normal for the time of year.

Six sites recorded their highest February monthly mean river flow on record (record start given in brackets):

• River Avon at Evesham (1936) in central England
• Upper Brue at Lovington (1964) in south-west England
• Middle Avon at East Mills (1965) in south-west England
• River Frome at East Stoke (1968) in south-west England
• River Kenwyn at Truro (1968) in south-west England
• River Nene at Upton Mill (1970) in east England

The regional index sites echoed the national trend with all sites being classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Flows at the Great Stour at Horton in south-east England, the River Dove at Marston-on-Dove in central England, the Bedford Ouse at Offord in east England and the naturalised flows on the River Thames at Kingston all increased and were classed as exceptionally high for the time of year. Flows also increased at the River Exe at Thorverton in England south-west and were classed as notably high. Flows at the South Tyne at Haydon Bridge in north-east England and the River Lune at Caton in north-west England also increased but remained classed as normal for the time of year.

4. Groundwater levels   

At the end of February, groundwater levels had increased at more than three-quarters of our indicator sites. All sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Nine sites were classed as exceptionally high for the time year, including Hanthorpe in the Lincolnshire Limestone in east England which recorded the highest end of February groundwater level since records at the site began in 1972. Three sites were classed notably high and 8 sites classed as above normal for the time of year. Five sites were classed as normal, all of which were found in either the permo-triassic sandstone tone aquifers in the western areas of England or the southern chalk aquifers.

Our major aquifer index sites reflected the overall picture, with all sites classed as normal or higher. Chilgrove in the Chichester Chalk in the south-east remains classed as exceptionally high as groundwater levels having quickly recovered from notably low levels recorded at the end of November 2025. Levels at both the Dalton Estate Well in north-east England (Hull and East Riding Chalk) and Weir Farm in the Bridgnorth Sandstone in central England increased to also be classed as exceptionally high for the time of year. Jackaments Bottom in the Burford Jurassic Limestone, Little Bucket in the East Kent Stour Chalk and Stonor Park in the South West Chilterns chalk, all in south-east England, all increased to be classed as above normal for the time of year. Skirwith in the Carlisle Basin and Eden Valley Sandstone in north-west England and the estimated data for Redlands Hall in east England were classed normal for the time of year.

5. Reservoir storage

At the end of February, reservoir storage had increased at all but one of the reservoirs and reservoir groups that we report on. Storage at 6 reservoirs or groups had increased by 10% or more at the end of February with Farmoor in the south-east England and Colliford in south-west England seeing the largest stock increases of 18% and 14% respectively. Twelve reservoirs were completely full at the end of February and almost half of reservoirs were classed as normal for the time of year. Seven reservoirs were classed as above normal, most of which were in south-east and south-west England. Vyrnwy and the Dee system which supply north-west and central England from Wales were classed as notably high as were stocks in the Yorkshire Supply Group. The Teesdale Group in north-east England, Rutland Water in east England and Roadford in south-west England were all exceptionally high for the time of year. The Lower Thames Group in south-east England was classed as below normal and three reservoirs in east England, Abberton, Grafham and Hanningfield, were all notably low. The Dove group in central England (refill constrained by operational and short term infrastructure impacts) remained classed as exceptionally low for the time of year. 

Reservoir stocks increased in all regions during February, with east and south-west England seeing the largest increase of 7%. For England as a whole, storage at the end of February was 94%, having increased by 3% during the month.  

6. Forward look

March began with dry weather for much of England, although the north-west and north-east have seen wetter conditions. Through the middle of the month, weather is expected to become changeable, with spells of rain and showers, particularly in the west and north-west. Drier periods are likely in between, with longer periods in the south and east. Some short periods of colder weather may occur, although temperatures will generally be around average. Towards the end of the month, high pressure is expected to build to the north of the UK, bringing more slowly evolving weather patterns. However, confidence in the detail of these conditions is low.

For the 3-month period from March to May the UK is likely to see a warm spring rather than a cool one. However, cold spells remain possible early in the period. The likelihood that it will be a wet spring at close to normal, and there is a slightly lower than normal chance of it being dry.

6.1 Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of March 2026, river flows in all parts of England have the greatest chance of being above normal or higher for the time of year.

By the end of September 2026, river flows in all parts of England are most likely to be normal or higher for the time of year. In south-east, east and central England, there is an increased chance of above normal or higher flows.

6.2 Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of March 2026, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being above normal or higher across England, except the north-west where groundwater levels are most likely to be in normal ranges.

By the end of September 2026, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being normal or higher in south-west, south-east, east and central England. In north-west and north-east England, groundwater levels are most likely to be normal or lower for the time of year.

Author: National Water Resources Hydrology Team, nationalhydrology@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.