Research and analysis

Water situation: October 2025 summary

Updated 11 November 2025

Applies to England

Rainfall for England in October was 90% of the long term average (LTA) with more than two-thirds of hydrological areas receiving below average rainfall. Although the recent wetter conditions have reduced soil moisture deficits (SMD) across northern areas of England they remain high across some parts of England, particularly in the east. Monthly mean river flows increased at more than half our indicator sites and most sites were classed as normal or lower for the time of year. Groundwater levels decreased at more than four-fifths of sites, and the majority of sites were classed as normal or lower at the end of October. Reservoir storage decreased at over half of the reservoirs and reservoir groups we report on at the end of October. For England as a whole, storage was 64% at the end of October a 2% increase since the end of September.

1. Rainfall

During October, England received 81mm of rainfall which represents 90% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA for the time of year. More than two-thirds of hydrological areas received below average rainfall during October. The wettest hydrological area as a percentage of LTA was the North Kent Chalk in south-east England, which received 137% (112.5mm) of LTA rainfall in October. The Lower Bedford Ouse in east England was the driest hydrological areas a percentage of LTA, having received 67% (41.6mm) of LTA rainfall.

Rainfall totals were classed as normal or higher for all but 2 hydrological areas in October. One hundred and twenty-three hydrological areas (88%) were classed as normal. Fourteen hydrological areas (10%) received above normal rainfall for the time of year all of which were in south-east England. Two hydrological areas (1.4% of the total), the Shropshire Plains in central England and the Dee in Wales were classed as below normal for the time of year.

The 3-month cumulative rainfall totals were normal for most of England. There is a group of hydrological areas across central, eastern and southern England where cumulative rainfall totals are classed as below normal or notably low. In Cumbria in the north-west, rainfall totals were above normal. Over the last 6-months, cumulative rainfall totals have been varied across England, although the majority were classed as normal or lower for the period.  Across much of England, rainfall was classed as below normal or notably low, however north-west England had above normal or higher rainfall. Twelve-month cumulative totals were normal or lower for almost all of England, with exceptionally low totals across north-east England. In western areas, rainfall totals were mostly normal, with 2 above normal catchment in the north-west.

At a regional scale, October rainfall totals were classed as normal across all regions of England and for England as a whole, rainfall in October was also classed as normal for the time of year.

2. Soil moisture deficit

SMD across most of England decreased during October with soils getting wetter. However, soils remain dry in east, south-east and central England. Across south-west, north-west and north-east England, soils became wetter.

Despite decreasing SMD across the country, previous dry conditions mean soils remain drier than average for the time of year in central, south-west, south-east and east England, with particularly dry soils in east England. Soils in the northern England are now slightly wetter than would be expected for the time of year.

3. River flows

Monthly mean river flows increased at more than half of our indicator sites in October. All but one site was classed as normal or below for the time of year. Just over two-thirds of sites were classed as normal for the time of year. Thirteen sites, including a cluster of sites in south-west England and all sites in the north east area of England, were classed as below normal for the time of year. Three sites were classed as notably low, the Kennet in south-east England and the Lud and Yare rivers in east England and one site on the Ely Ouse in east England was classed as exceptionally low. Only one site on the River Ver in south-east England was classed as above normal for the time of year. 

Our regional index sites reflected the overall picture, with most sites outside northern England being classed as normal for the time of year. The Exe at Thorverton in south-west England, the River Dove in central England, the Great Stour in south-east England and the Bedford Ouse in east England were all classed as normal for the time of year. The naturalised flows in the River Thames at Kingston were classed as below normal for the time of year, having being normal last month. Furthermore, in north-east England, Haydon Bridge on the South Tyne was classed as below normal for the time of year, having been notably high last month and in the north-west, the River Lune at Caton was classed as normal having being classed as exceptionally high in September.

4. Groundwater levels   

Groundwater levels at more than four-fifths of indicator sites we report on decreased at the end of October and more than four-fifths of sites were classed as normal or lower for the time of year. Ten sites were classed as normal, 4 were below normal, and 5 were notably low. Two sites were exceptionally low for the time of year, Chilgrove in the Chichester Chalk, and Tilshead in the Upper Hampshire Avon Chalk. In contrast, 4 sites were above normal including Lea Lane in the Fylde Permo-Triassic Sandstone in north-west England and the 2 sites, Crossley Hill and Coxmoor, in the Idle Torne Sandstone in central England. Priors Heyes remains at exceptionally high levels as the West Cheshire Sandstone continues to recover from historic abstraction. 

Our major aquifer index sites mirrored the overall picture. Skirwith in the Carlisle Basin Sandstone in north-west England, Stonor Park in the South West Chilterns Chalk in south-east England and Redlands Hall in the Cam and Ely Ouse Chalk in east England were classed as normal at the end of October. Dalton Estate Well in the Hull and East Riding Chalk in north-east England and Jackaments Bottom in the Burford Jurassic Limestone in south-east England remain notably low for the time of year. Chilgrove in the South Downs remains exceptionally low for the time of year and levels at Little Bucket in the East Kent Stour Chalk decreased to be classed as below normal at the end of the month. Levels at Weir Farm in central England (Bridgnorth Sandstone) were above normal.

5. Reservoir storage

At the end of October, reservoir storage had decreased at over half of the reservoirs and reservoir groups we report on. Vyrnmy in Wales supplying north-west England and Blagdon in south-west England both recorded the largest decreases of 8%. Eleven reservoirs or groups recorded an increases in the Yorkshire Supply Group and the Pennines group which rose by 16% and 13% respectively. Eight reservoirs across England were classed as normal for the time of year with a further 11 reservoirs were classed as below normal. Six reservoirs were classed as notably low, including Ardingly in south-east England which remains at 30% full.  The final 6 reservoirs were exceptionally low for the time of year, 4 of which are less than 50% full including Wimbleball in south-west England which was 27% full. In total 13 reservoirs are now less than half full. 

At a regional scale, stocks in central, north-east and north-west England increased during October. Three regions, the east, south-east and south-west all saw a decrease in storage during the month. Regional storage ranged from 43% in south-west England to 73% in north-east England.  For England a whole, reservoir storage was 64%, after a 2% increase during October.

6. Forward look

November began with a wet week in many parts of England, particularly the north-west where a third of the months LTA rainfall has already fallen. Conditions are expected to remain unsettled until the middle of November, bringing bands of rain across the country from the west. It is likely that the east of the country will remain slightly drier through this period as rainfall is focussed on higher ground in the west of England. From mid-November a transition towards more settled conditions is expected as high pressure begins to dominate. This will bring clearer skies and cooler temperatures, with a chance of fog and frost overnight. There remains a chance of rain and showers, particularly in the west.

For the 3-month period from November to January, there is a higher than normal chance that conditions for the UK will be drier than average. High pressure patterns are expected to dominate UK weather during this period, causing regional variations in rainfall with the wettest conditions likely in the west. The chance of a cold 3-month period is higher than it has been in recent years, bringing an increased chance of colder spells

6.1 Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of March 2026, river flows in east England have a greater than normal chance of being below normal or lower. In central and north-west England, river flows are most likely to be below normal or lower. Other regions are most likely to be normal or higher for the time of year.

By the end of September 2026, river flows in east England have a greater than normal chance of being below normal or lower for the time of year. In north-west and central England, river flows are most likely to be below normal or lower, while flows in other regions are most likely to be normal or higher.

6.2 Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of March 2026, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being below normal or lower in east, south-east, central and north-east England. In south-west and north-west England, groundwater levels are most likely to be in the normal range for the time of year.

By the end of September 2026, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being below normal or lower in east, south-east, central and north-east England. In south-west and north-west England, groundwater levels are most likely to be above normal or higher for the time of year. 

Author: National Water Resources Hydrology Team, nationalhydrology@environment-agency.gov.uk.

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.