Research and analysis

Water situation: November 2025 summary

Updated 10 December 2025

Applies to England

Rainfall in November was 149% of the long term average (LTA) for England, with three-quarters of hydrological areas receiving higher than average rainfall. Soil moisture deficits (SMD) have continued to decrease across the country, although soils remain slightly drier than expected predominately in parts of south-east England. Monthly mean river flows increased at all our indicator sites, and almost all sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Groundwater levels were mixed at the end of November, with half beginning to see increases in levels, while remaining sites continued to fall. Reservoir storage increased at all reservoirs or reservoir groups we report on, and storage for England was 79.1% after a 14% increase to the end of November.

1. Rainfall

During November, England received 138mm of rainfall which represents 149% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA for the time of year. Almost three-quarters of hydrological areas received above average rainfall during November, with areas receiving less than LTA rainfall mainly found in the south-east. The wettest hydrological areas a percentage of LTA was Hull and Humber in north-east England which received 257% (180mm), while Sheppey in south-east England was the driest having seen just 63% (39.7mm) of LTA rainfall in November. Five hydrological areas in the east Midlands and Humberside recorded the wettest November since records began in 1871.

Rainfall was classed as normal or higher for all hydrological areas in November. Forty-one hydrological areas (29% of the total), were classed as normal for the time of year, with almost all of these found in the south-east of England. In south-west England, almost all hydrological areas were above normal, accounting for the majority of the 38 (27%) classed as above normal in November. All remaining hydrological areas were classed as notably or exceptionally high, with central, east and far north-west England seeing most of the exceptionally high totals.

The 3-month cumulative rainfall totals were above normal or higher for more than two-thirds of hydrological areas, with the remaining third classed as normal and mainly found in south-east England. In north-west and north-east England, cumulative rainfall totals were classed as notably or exceptionally high for the 3-month period. This includes the Derwent (north-east), which had the wettest three months ending in November since 1954. Cumulative rainfall over the last 6 months have been normal for much of England. However, parts of the north and west of England have received above normal or higher rainfall with exceptionally high totals in the far north-west. In south-east and east England, hydrological areas around London and into parts of Essex rainfall totals for the period were below normal. Over the past 12-months, cumulative rainfall totals were mixed, ranging from notably low to notably high. In north-west England, rainfall totals were largely normal, with a handful of above normal and notably high areas in the far north. All other parts of England had a mix of normal, below normal or notably low rainfall totals, with most notably low hydrological areas found in south-east and east England.

At a regional scale, rainfall totals for November were classed as exceptionally high for central, east, north-west and north-east England, with all receiving more than 160% of LTA rainfall in the month. North-east England saw the fourth wettest November since records began in 1871. South-west England was classed as above normal, and south-east England was classed as normal having received 100% of LTA rainfall. England as a whole was classed as notably high for the time of year. 

2. Soil moisture deficit

SMD continued to decrease across England in November, with SMD in north-west and north-east England almost completely eliminated. Soils in south-east, east and parts of south-west England remain drier, although all saw quick reductions during November. 

Despite these notable decreases in SMD across the country, soils remain drier than average for the time of year in south-east and parts of east and south-west England, as the impacts of earlier dry weather continue to be felt. In parts of north-east, central and east England, soils are now slightly wetter than would be expected at the end of November. For the rest of England, SMD are around average for the end of November.

3. River flows

Monthly mean river flows increased at all of our indicator sites in November. Almost half of sites were classed as normal for the time of year, most of which were in south-west, south-east and east England. Twelve sites across England were classed as above normal for the time of year. Eleven sites, all in central, north-west and north-east England were classed as notably high. In south-east and east England, 5 sites were classed as below normal for the time of year, all of which are groundwater fed rivers.

Three regional index sites were classed as normal for the time of year, the Bedford Ouse at Offord in east England, and the Great Stour and River Thames (naturalised at Kingston) in south-east England. The River Exe at Thorverton in south-west England was classed as above normal for the time of year. The River Dove in central England, the South Tyne in north-east England, and the River Lune in the north-west were all classed as notably high in November. For Haydon Bridge on the South Tyne, this marked a quick recovery from below normal flows in October.

4. Groundwater levels   

The response in groundwater levels to November’s rainfall was variable, with half of sites beginning to increase, while the remaining sites continued to decline. Half of our reported sites were classed as normal for the time of year at the end of November. Four sites in central and north-east England were classed as above normal of the time of year. Priors Heyes in the West Cheshire Sandstone reflects how the aquifer is recovering from the effects of historic abstraction, and was exceptionally high at the end of November. Five sites were classed as below normal for the time of year, including Woodyates (Upper Dorset Stour) in south-west England and Grainsby (Northern Chalk) in east England. Tilshead (Upper Hampshire Avon Chalk) in south-west England and Chipstead (Epsom North Downs Chalk) in the south-east were both classed as exceptionally low for the time of year.

This mixed picture was reflected in our major aquifer sites. Jackaments Bottom in the Jurassic Limestone in south-east England, was normal for the time of year, having risen quickly from notably low levels at the end of October. In sandstone aquifers, Skirwith in the Carlisle Basin and Eden Valley sandstone in north-west England was normal for the time of year, while Weir Farm in the Bridgnorth Sandstone in central England was above normal. Chalk aquifer sites were all normal or lower for the time of year. Stonor Park (South West Chilterns) in south-east England and Redlands (Cam and Ely Ouse Chalk) in the east were normal for the time of year, despite both seeing a small decrease in levels at the end of November. Little Bucket in the East Kent Stour Chalk (south-east England) and Dalton Estate Well in the Hull and East Riding Chalk (north-east England) were both below normal. Chilgrove (Chichester Chalk) in the south-east was notably low, after levels began to rise and it recovered from exceptionally low levels last month.

5. Reservoir storage

At the end of November, reservoir storage had increased at all reservoirs and reservoir groups that we report on. Four reservoirs or groups increased by more than 30% in the month, with Clatworthy seeing the largest increase of 39%. Increases were generally smaller in south-east and east England, with most reservoirs recording an increase of less than 10%. Just over half of reservoirs were classed as normal for the time of year, including all reservoirs in north-east England. Vyrnwy in Wales which supplies north-west England was completely full at the end of November and was classed as exceptionally high for the time of year. Seven reservoirs or groups were classed as below normal, most of which were in south-west, south-east and east England. Another 6 were classed as notably low for the time of year, including Wimbeball in the south-west, and Ardingly and Bewl in south-east England, which were all less than 50% full. Storage in the Dove Group in central England increased 11% but remains classed as exceptionally low for the time of year.

Reservoir stocks increased in all regions during November. South-west England has the lowest storage at 57.8% having risen 7% in the month. North-east England reservoirs are 90.4% full, after a 17% increase. For England as a whole, storage rose by 14% and was 79.1% at the end of November.

6. Forward look

December began with wet weather for many, with particularly wet conditions in south-west and north-west England. All parts have seen some rainfall, but east England has been driest. Storm Bram arrived in the second week of the month, bringing more heavy rain and strong winds to western and northern parts of the country. Moving into the middle of the month, conditions are expected to remain unsettled and changeable, with frontal systems moving in from the Atlantic. Spells of rain, which may be heavy at times, and strong winds are expected, with temperatures remaining quite mild. Towards the end of December some drier, more settled periods of weather are possible, although it is uncertain how long they will last. Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain changeable, wet and windy.

For the 3-month period from December to February, the chances of a wet or dry season in the UK are around normal, with a normal chance of heavy rain or flooding impacts. However, regional variations in rainfall are to be expected. The chances of the period being mild are greater than normal, but cold weather spells and associated risks could still occur.

7. Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of March 2026, river flows in east England have a greater than normal chance of being below normal or lower. In all other regions river flows are most likely to be normal or higher for the time of year.

By the end of September 2026, river flows in all parts of England are most likely to be normal of higher for the time of year, with above normal or higher flows particularly likely in western and northern rivers. 

8. Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of March 2026, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being below normal or lower in east, and south east England. In north-east England, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being above normal or high for the time of year. In south-west, central and north-west England, groundwater levels are most likely to be normal or higher.

By the end of September 2026, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being below normal or lower in east, south east, central and north east England. In south west and north west England, groundwater levels are most likely to be above normal or higher for the time of year. 

Author: National Water Resources Hydrology Team, nationalhydrology@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.