Research and analysis

Water situation: December 2025 summary

Updated 13 January 2026

Applies to England

England received 114% of the long term average (LTA) rainfall during December, with almost all hydrological areas classed as normal or higher for the time of year. Soil moisture deficits (SMDs) were near zero (saturated) across most of England, although soils remain slightly drier than expected in parts of east and south-east England. Monthly mean river flows increased at almost all sites, and the majority were classed as normal or above in December. Groundwater levels increased at more than three-quarters of sites as seasonal recharge continues. Reservoir storage increased at almost all reservoirs or reservoir groups we report on, and storage for England was 86.4% having increased by 7%.

1. Rainfall

During December, England received 105mm of rainfall which represents 114% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA for the time of year. Two-thirds of hydrological areas received above average rainfall during December, with below average totals mainly found in south-east and east England. The wettest hydrological area by percentage of LTA was the River Frome in south-west England which received 169% of the LTA (208mm). The driest was Thanet Chalk in the south-east, which received just 63% of the LTA (40mm). 

Rainfall was classed as normal in nearly half of hydrological areas, and above normal in another 42%. Thanet Chalk was the only hydrological area to be classed as below normal for the time of year. Thirteen areas were classed as notably high, almost all of which were in south-west England. Two hydrological areas in north-west England, the Esk and Kent, were classed as receiving exceptionally high rainfall for the time of year.

For the 3-month cumulative period rainfall totals were above normal or higher in two-thirds of hydrological areas in England. The third of hydrological areas that received normal rainfall were mostly found in south-east and east England. In central, north-west and north-east England, rainfall was mostly notably or exceptionally high. Over the past 6-months, the cumulative rainfall totals were normal or higher across England, except for a small number of hydrological areas around the Thames estuary which were below normal. South-west, north-west and north-east England were generally above normal or higher, with exceptionally high rainfall totals in parts of Cumbria. For the 2025 calendar year, rainfall totals were classed as normal for much of England. North-west and south-west England were wetter with above normal or higher totals in some hydrological areas. In contrast, the rest of England had areas of below normal or lower rainfall, and east, central and south-east England had the driest calendar year since 2011.

At a regional scale, rainfall totals for December were classed as normal or above normal for all regions. South-east, east and north-east England all received normal rainfall for the time of year, while the rest of the country received above normal rainfall. It was the second consecutive month of above average rainfall in north-west, north-east and central England.

2. Soil moisture deficit

SMD remained near zero across most of England at the end of December. In east and south-east England, deficits continued to diminish as wet weather continued, although SMDs persist in some areas of the south-east.

At the end of December, SMD was around average across the majority of England. In Norfolk and south-east England, soils remain drier than would be expected in places.  Meanwhile, in Lincolnshire and around the Humber estuary, soils were wetter than would be expected for the time of year at the end of December. 

3. River flows

Monthly mean river flows increased at almost all indicator sites in December, and the majority of sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. The exceptions were the Rivers Burn, Ely Ouse and Cam in east England which were all classed as below normal. Sixteen sites were classed as normal for the time of year, the majority of which were found in south-east and east England. Fifteen sites were classed as above normal, and 15 were classed as notably high. Six sites were classed as exceptionally high for the time of year, including 4 sites in south-west England, one in the north-west and one in the north-east.

The 4 sites in south-west England classed as exceptionally high all recorded their highest December monthly mean flow on record (record start given in brackets):

• River Dart at Austins Bridge (1958)
• River Frome at East Stoke (1965)
• River Kenwyn at Truro (1968)
• Middle River Stour at Hammoon (1968)

Our regional index sites were all classed as normal or above normal for the time of year. The Bedford Ouse at Offord in east England, South Tyne at Haydon Bridge in north-east England and the Great Stour at Horton in south-east England were all classed as normal. In central England, the River Dove at Marston-On-Dove was classed as above normal, as was the River Lune at Caton in the north-west of England. Naturalised monthly mean flows on the River Thames at Kingston were also classed as above normal for the time of year.

4. Groundwater levels   

At the end of December, groundwater levels had increased at more than three-quarters of our indicator sites. Almost all sites were classed as normal or higher for the time of year. The exceptions were Washpit Farm (North West Norfolk Chalk) in east England which was below normal, and Chipstead (Epsom North Downs Chalk) in south-east England which was exceptionally low. Over half of sites were classed as normal for the time of year, the majority of which are chalk aquifer sites in southern and eastern England. Four sites were classed as above normal, three were notably high and 2 were exceptionally high.

Our major aquifer sites reflected the improving groundwater situation. Jackaments Bottom in the Jurassic Limestone in south-east England was above normal for the time of year as levels continue to rise. Weir Farm in the Bridgnorth Sandstone in central England was notably high for the time of year, while Skirwith in the Carlisle Basin and Eden Valley Sandstone in north-west England was normal for the time of year. Most of our index chalk aquifer sites were normal for the time of year, including Chilgrove in the Chichester Chalk in south-east England which has risen quickly and recovered from notably low levels at the end of November. The exception to this was Dalton Estate Well in the Hull and East Riding Chalk in north-east England which was notably high

5. Reservoir storage

At the end of December, reservoir storage had increased at almost all of the reservoirs and reservoir groups that we report on. Eight reservoirs or groups increased by more than 20% during the month, with the largest increase seen at Bough Beech in south-east England which saw levels rise 42%. Kielder in the north-east and Vyrnwy in Wales (which supplies north-west England) were the only reservoirs to see a decrease in storage, of 3% and 5% respectively. More than half of reservoirs and reservoir groups were classed as normal for the time of year. Four were classed as above normal at the end of December, including Clatworthy in south-west England which was completely full. Eight reservoirs or groups were classed as below normal for the time of year, including Bewl in south-east England which was 61% full. Abberton (54% full) and Hanningfield (56%) in east England were both classed as notably low for the time of year. The Dove Group in central England was classed as exceptionally low for the time of year as the rate of recovery is currently impacted by short term infrastructure constraints.

Reservoir stocks increased in all regions during December, with storage in the south-west increasing by 23% over the month. Storage is the lowest in east England, with reservoirs 71.2% full. All other regions have storage over 80% full, with north-east England having the highest storage of 91.6%. For England as a whole, storage at the end of December was 86.4%, having increased 7% during the month.

6. Forward look

January began with a dry week for most, as high pressure settled over the country, and much of the precipitation received fell as snow. Storm Goretti then moved in from the south-west bringing strong winds, heavy rain and snow for much of south-west and central England. Moving into the middle of January, milder air is expected to replace the cooler air which dominated in the first part of the month. Temperatures are likely to be above average for many, and although south-westerly winds may bring some rain showers, drier weather with bright interludes can be expected. Towards the end of January, forecasts remain uncertain but currently spells of wet, windy and mild weather are likely, with the potential for some strong winds.

For the 3-month period from January to March, there is a higher than normal chance of wet conditions in the UK. However, this chance is lower in southern and eastern parts of the UK. Later in the period, impacts from wind and rain become more likely. Overall the 3-month period is unlikely to be cold, although short lived cold spells are possible early in the period.

6.1 Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of March 2026, river flows in south-east, east and central England, river flows have the greatest chance of being normal for the time of year by the end of March. In all other regions, river flows are most likely to be within a normal range for the time of year.

By the end of September 2026, river flows in all parts of England are most likely to be normal or lower for the time of year, with river flows in north-west and south-west England having the greatest chance of being below normal or lower.

6.2 Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of March 2026, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being below normal or lower in east, and south east England. In north-east England, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being above normal or high for the time of year. In south-west, central and north-west England, groundwater levels are most likely to be normal or higher.

By the end of September 2026, groundwater levels have a greater than normal chance of being below normal or lower in east, south east, central and north east England. In south west and north west England, groundwater levels are most likely to be above normal or higher for the time of year. 

Author: National Water Resources Hydrology Team, nationalhydrology@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.