Research and analysis

Water situation: February 2024 summary

Updated 10 April 2024

Applies to England

It was the fourth wettest February for England using records from 1871, with three-quarters of catchments receiving more than twice the long term average (LTA) rainfall. For the period March to February, the last 12 months have been the wettest in England on record. Soil moisture deficits (SMD) remained close to zero across England, with parts of the east of the country ending February with wetter than expected soils. River flows increased at two-thirds of sites and the majority of indicator sites were classed as above normal or higher. Groundwater levels increased at all the indicator sites and more than half of these sites were classed as exceptionally high for the time of year at the end of February. This has resulted in groundwater flooding alerts and warnings being in place across large parts of central southern England. Reservoir storage increased at two-thirds of the reservoirs we report on, and the majority of reservoirs were classed as normal or higher for the time of year.

1. Rainfall

February was the fourth wettest on record since 1871 for England, with a rainfall total of 130mm which represents 225% of the 1961 to 1990 long term average (LTA) for the month (196% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA). All catchments received above average rainfall during February, with three quarters of catchments receiving more than twice the expected rainfall. Twenty-two catchments received over 300% of the LTA rainfall for February, with the Central Area Fenland in east England receiving 356% of the LTA. Forty-two catchments had the wettest February since records began in 1871. It was wettest February on record for east England.

February rainfall totals in England were classed as:

• exceptionally high for the time of year in 75% of catchments
• notably high in 8% of catchments
• above normal in 12% of catchments

Seven catchments were normal for the time of year, all of which were in the north-east or north-west. At the regional scale, rainfall totals were above normal for the time of year in north-east and north-west England, with all other regions recording exceptionally high rainfall totals. England as a whole was also exceptionally high for the time of year.

The 3-month cumulative totals were exceptionally high across most of England, with some areas of notably high rainfall totals in the north-east, central, and south-east England. The last 6 months have also seen exceptionally high cumulative totals across the country, with only a handful of catchments in lower bands. For the 12-month period ending in February it has been the wettest on record since 1871 for 41 catchments (29% of the total), for east England and for England as a whole. Since September 2022 for England, it has been the wettest 18 month period (from September to February) on record, with 40% of catchments also having their wettest 18 month period.

2. Soil moisture deficit

Across England SMD remained close to zero throughout February, where they have remained since October 2023. As days got longer and temperatures increased throughout the month some regions saw small deficits begin to develop.

Across most of England SMD were around the LTA for the time of year, however, in parts of the north-east, east and south-east England soils were wetter than expected for the time of year.

3. River flows

Monthly mean flows increased at two-thirds of indicator sites in February compared to January. The remaining third of indicator sites saw a decrease in monthly mean flows compared to last month. Monthly mean river flows were classed as normal or higher at all sites. Five sites were classed as normal for the time of year, all of which are in the far north-east and north-west. Eleven sites (20% of the total) were classed as above normal for the time of year, and 35% (19 sites) were classed as notably high. Twenty sites were exceptionally high (36%). Six sites recorded their highest monthly mean flow for February on record, including the Rivers Yare (since 1970), Gipping (since 1964) and Nene (since 1970) in east England, the River Avon at Evesham (since 1936), and the Upper River Brue (since 1964) and River Exe in the south-west (since 1956).

Most of our regional index sites saw an increase in monthly mean flows in February, with the only exceptions being Haydon Bridge on the South Tyne in north-east England and Caton on the River Lune in north-west England. Both of these sites were classed in lower bands than in January, with Haydon Bridge classed as normal for the time of year and Caton recording above normal monthly mean flows for the time of year. Marston-on-Dove on the River Dove in central England and naturalised flows at Kingston on the River Thames in the south-east, were both notably high for the time of year. The Bedford Ouse in east England, Great Stour in south-east England and River Exe in south-west England all recorded exceptionally high monthly mean flows in February.

4. Groundwater levels   

At the end of February, all indicator sites we report on had recorded an increase in groundwater levels. At more than half of the indicator sites, groundwater levels were classed as exceptionally high for the time of year. Four sites were classed as notably high, and another four were above normal for the time of year. Just 2 sites, Crossley Hill in central England and Lea Lane in the north-west both of which are in sandstone aquifers, were classed as normal at the end of February. Six sites recorded their highest end of February groundwater level on record, including:

• Grainsby in the Northern Chalk in east England (since 1977)
• Houndean Bottom in the Brighton Chalk (since 1977)
• Hanthorpe in the Lincolnshire Limestone (since 1972)
• Coxmoor in the Idle Thorne Sandstone (since 1990)

Groundwater levels increased at all our aquifer index sites in February. Weir Farm (Bridgnorth Sandstone), Dalton Estate (Hull and East Riding Chalk), Chilgrove (Chichester Chalk) and Stonor Park (South West Chilterns Chalk) were all classed as exceptionally high for the time of year, with Weir Farm and Chilgrove recording their highest end of February groundwater level on record since 1983 and 1836 respectively. Skirwith (Carlisle Basin Sandstone) and Little Bucket (East Kent Stour Chalk) were both classed as notably high for the time of year. Jackaments Bottom (Burford Jurassic Limestone) in the south-east was above normal at the end of February.

5. Reservoir storage

Reservoir storage increased during February at more than two-thirds of the reservoirs and reservoir groups we report on. Only 3 reservoirs recorded a decrease in storage between January and February. For the majority of reservoirs, storage at the end of February was classed as normal or higher for the time of year. This includes Abberton in east England, Carsington and Ogston in the north-west, and Roadford in the south-west which were classed as exceptionally high. The Dove reservoir group in central England and Bewl in the south-east were classed as below normal. At Farmoor in the south-east and Grafham Water in the east, storage was classed as notably low for the time of year, as high river flows limited abstraction opportunities. The Dee system continues to be impacted by ongoing reservoir maintenance.

At a regional scale, total reservoir storage increased in all regions except north-east England where storage decreased slightly compared to January. In south-west England, overall storage increased by 6% during February. For England as whole, storage increased slightly to 94% at the end of February.

6. Forward look

March began with mild and wet conditions across the country. Following a shorter drier interlude wetter conditions are likely to return in the middle of the month. Towards the end of the month southern areas are more likely to be wetter than usual while northern areas of the UK may be drier. 

For the 3 month period between March to May, there is a higher likelihood the UK will experience warmer conditions, with precipitation during this period is forecast to be close to normal for the time of year.

7. Projections for river flows at key sites

By the end of March 2024, river flows across most of England have a higher than expected chance of being above normal or higher. River flows across the south-east, south-west, east and central England have a higher than expected chance of being above normal or higher. This is particularly true for those in groundwater fed catchments where groundwater levels are currently higher than expected for the time of year and can continue to support river flows throughout the remainder of March.

By the end of September 2024, across most of England have the greatest chance of being above normal or higher, except in the north-west where flows are more likely to be normal.

8. Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

By the end of March 2024, groundwater levels in the east, south-east, north-west, and north-east England have a greater likelihood of being above normal or higher. Sites in chalk aquifers are likely to be above normal or higher. South-west and central England groundwater levels have a greater likelihood of being normal or higher.

By the end of September 2024, groundwater levels have a greater likelihood of being above normal or higher in north-west, north-east, south-east, and east England. Whereas in south-west and central England, groundwater levels have a greater likelihood of being normal or higher.

Author: National Water Resources Hydrology Team, Nationalhydrology@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.