Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: July 2026 summary
Updated 12 August 2026
Applies to England
© Crown copyright 2026
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1. Summary
July 2026 was characterised by a record low rainfall total of just 1mm across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, 1% of the long-term average (LTA). With exceptionally low rainfall, river flows and groundwater levels continued to decrease as the period of dry weather extended for another month. The soil moisture deficit increased by 6.8mm compared to the end of June and ended July at 134mm. Reservoir stocks were depleted by an average of 8% and remain below their target curves as demand continues to be high.
2. Rainfall
July 2026 was the driest July for Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire (LNA) since records began in 1871, with just 1mm recorded on average across the area. The volume recorded represented just 1% of the LTA for the area and meant all 6 hydrological areas saw their driest ever July and recorded exceptionally low rainfall totals.
It has now been five months since LNA had a month in which at least 100% of LTA rainfall was recorded. Subsequently, this year was the fourth driest May to July on record, with just 47% of the LTA rainfall being recorded. Five of the 6 hydrological areas saw exceptionally low rainfall, with only the Upper Welland and Nene seeing notably low totals. The past 3 months have been the fourth driest May to July experienced in the Louth Grimsby and Ancholme, the Steeping Great Eau and Long Eau and the Lower Welland and Nene. The 3 other hydrological areas also experienced the fifth, seventh and ninth driest May to July on record.
The last 6 months have seen notably low rainfall totals across LNA, 70% of the LTA. Five of the 6 hydrological areas recorded notably low rainfall, between 64% and 72% of the LTA, while the Upper Welland and Nene recorded below normal rainfall, 75% of the LTA. Despite exceptionally low rainfall totals in recent months, the past year has seen normal rainfall totals across LNA. The 6 hydrological areas have recorded between 94% and 106% of their respective LTAs since August 2025. The data highlights the contrast in weather LNA has experienced over the past twelve months, with a very wet winter balancing out a more recent dry spring and summer.
3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
Over the course of July 2026, the soil moisture deficit (SMD) increased from 127.2mm on 30 June to 134mm on 28 July, an increase of 6.8mm across LNA. All 6 hydrological areas have an SMD that is exceptionally high for the time of year, ranging from 121.5mm in the Upper Welland and Nene to 154.9mm in South Forty Foot and Hobhole. The SMD in July was 26mm to 50mm greater than the LTA across LNA.
4. River flows
Eleven of the twelve key indicator sites for river flow ended July 2026 with a monthly mean flow below normal or less. Only the River Lud at Louth recorded normal flows for the time of year. Monthly mean flows ranged from 14% on the Barlings Eau to 80% on the River Lud. Four of the key indicator sites averaged below normal flows for July, five sites had notably low flows and two sites, the Welland at Barrowden/Tixover and the Nene at Wansford, had exceptionally low flows for the time of year.
5. Groundwater levels
Despite the dry weather, low flows and high SMD, groundwater levels have remained relatively healthy over the past couple of months and 6 of the 10 key indicator sites ended July with normal groundwater levels. Key indicator sites in the chalk to the north of the area have maintained healthy groundwater levels, however the northern limestone sites are beginning to see a steady decline in levels. Leasingham Exploratory is now below normal and Grange de Lings is exceptionally low for the time of year, while Grange Farm ended the month with levels very close to below normal. There was no data available in July at Castlethorpe Bridge or Dunholme Road.
6. Reservoir stocks
Reservoir stocks were depleted by an average of 8% through July in response to the exceptionally dry weather. All five reservoirs are now below their target curve. Stock levels across LNA vary from 92% in Covenham reservoir, down 2.5% since the end of June, to 71% in Hollowell reservoir, down 12%. Despite the drop in stock levels, all five sites remain above Level 1 and Drought Permit Trigger levels.
Author: Pan Hydrology Team, Hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk
Contact Details: 03708 506 506
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report