Research and analysis

East Anglia water situation: October 2025 summary

Updated 12 November 2025

Applies to England

• Publication for Northern Ireland
• Publication for Scotland
• Publication for Wales

1. Summary

East Anglia rainfall for October 2025 ranged from 70% to 113% of the long term average (LTA) for the month, with the wettest catchments being in the east of the area. The area soil moisture deficit (SMD) reduced by approximately 20mm from September to October, with most of that reduction following heavy rainfall towards the end of October. However, the SMD for East Anglia remained notably high for the time of year at 102mm. With continuing dry soils, the flow response seen in area rivers to the approximately average October rainfall was muted. For the majority of rivers, the flow for October 2025, when calculated as an average for the month, was approximately equal to or slightly higher than the flow for September 2025. Groundwater levels at the majority of report sites continue to recede, although remain normal to below normal for the time of year. Public water supply reservoirs within East Anglia ended October 2025 with levels ranging from 46% to 71% of full storage capacity.

2. Rainfall

October 2025 rainfall totals across East Anglia ranged from 70% to 113% of the LTA for the month. The highest rainfall totals were recorded towards the east of the area, with East Suffolk and South Essex receiving respectively 72mm and 67mm across the month. The average rainfall across East Anglia for October 2025 was 59mm, which is 91% of the historic LTA and is considered normal for the time of year. Approximately average rainfall for both October and September 2025 was preceded by an exceptionally dry spring and summer period. The East Anglia rainfall total for March 2025 to August 2025 was 159mm, which ranks as the fourth driest March to August period on record (1871 to 2025) for East Anglia.

3. Soil moisture deficit

The SMD for East Anglia at the end of October 2025 was 102mm. The SMD decreased following generally cooler conditions and rainfall towards the end of the month, although the SMD remains notably high for the time of year. The hydrological catchments with the highest SMDs are located towards the north-west of the area, with the Central Area Fenland and North West Norfolk and Wissey catchments having SMD values of 136mm and 127mm respectively.

4. River flows

For the majority of river flow report sites, the October 2025 month mean flow was approximately equal to or slightly higher than the September 2025 month mean flow. The response of East Anglian rivers to the approximately average October rainfall was dampened by catchment soils being drier than typical for the time of year. Report sites along the Bedford Ouse, and its tributaries, recorded October 2025 flows considered normal to below normal for the time of year. The lowest flows were concentrated towards the centre of the area, with report sites on the Ely Ouse and its tributaries, such as the Wissey and Little Ouse, recording exceptionally low flows for the time of year.

5. Groundwater levels   

Groundwater levels have continued to recede with the majority of sites reporting a drop in levels from September to October. The recovery in groundwater levels, indicative of aquifer recharge, is likely to be delayed with area soil moisture deficits remaining notably high for the time of year. The majority of report sites ended October 2025 with groundwater levels categorised as normal or below normal for the time of year. The groundwater level at The Spinney, Wensum Chalk, continues to be exceptionally low for the time of year, with the latest value being the lowest October groundwater level on record for this site (1971 to 2025). Therfield Rectory, North Hertfordshire Chalk, continues to be atypical for the area, with above normal groundwater levels for the time of year. This is likely to be the result of a locally exceptional recharge season, with the September 2024 to February 2025 rainfall in the Upper Bedford Ouse catchment being the fifth wettest September to February rainfall total on record (1871 to 2025) for that catchment.

6. Reservoir stocks

Public water supply reservoirs within East Anglia finished October 2025 with levels ranging from 46% to 71% of full storage capacity. Alton Water, Grafham and Hanningfield reservoirs ended the month with levels below their respective normal operating curves.

7. Forward look

7.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites

River flow projections for the Bedford Ouse, and its tributaries, show a high probability of below normal to notably low flows for December 2025. Flow projections for the Ely Ouse show a high probability of normal or lower flows for December 2025. Projections for March 2026 show a greater than 50% probability of notably low or lower flows at most forecast sites.

7.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

The groundwater projections for March 2026 shows a high probability of below normal to notably low groundwater levels at most forecast sites. The Therfield Rectory groundwater level is expected to drop to within the normal range by March 2026. The projection for September 2026 give a high probability of most forecast sites having below normal or lower groundwater levels into next autumn, with Therfield Rectory expected to stay within the normal range.

Author: Hydrology Team, hydrology-ean-and-lna@environment-agency.gov.uk.

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.