Research and analysis

The use of scenarios in transport modelling and appraisal

A think piece on how scenarios are used in transport modelling and appraisal, focusing on their use in other countries, other sectors, and in academia.

• From: Department for Transport
• Published: 15 June 2026

Documents

The use of scenarios in transport modelling and appraisal: a think piece drawing on literature

PDF, 580 KB, 40 pages

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Details

This think piece examines how scenarios can be used, and are used, to address uncertainty in transport modelling and appraisal.

Drawing on sources including academic and grey literature, it:

• explains uncertainty concepts
• reviews scenario and analytical methods and situates the Department for Transport’s (DfT’s) current practice within this context
• identifies gaps, challenges and priorities for future research and guidance development 

This work was completed by Charlene Rohr of Mott MacDonald and Richard Batley of the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds.

Published 15 June 2026