Executive Summary: Traders Survey - Wave 1 to 5 summary report (2020-2021)
Published 15 July 2025
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This research was commissioned under the Conservative administration (2010 to 2024), and conducted between July 2020 and October 2021.
Wave 1 was conducted between 23 July to 20 August 2020.
Wave 2 was conducted between 21 October to 18 November 2020.
Wave 3 was conducted between 3 February to 2 March 2021.
Wave 4 was conducted between 20 May to 17 June 2021.
Wave 5 was conducted between 15 September to 19 October 2021.
HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Research Report 813a.
1. Executive summary
HMRC commissioned Ipsos to conduct research with VAT registered businesses based in Great Britain (GB) to monitor readiness to continue trading goods with the EU both during and after the transition period. The research was comprised of 5 waves of random probability telephone surveys to measure change in readiness over time, and follow-up qualitative interviews with a targeted sample of traders.
Wave 1 was conducted prior to the end of the transition period. Findings were not directly comparable due to changes in methodology and survey content. A summary of findings from wave 1 can be seen in Annex 3. Wave 2 focused on traders’ readiness during the transition period. Wave 3, 4 and 5 focused on steps that traders had taken since the transition period ended on 31 December 2020. The fieldwork dates are as follows:
| Wave | Fieldwork dates | Transition period | Number of interviews |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 July to 20 August 2020 | During transition period | 602 |
| 2 | 21 October to 18 November 2020 | During transition period | 608 |
| 3 | 3 February to 2 March 2021 | After transition period | 817 |
| 4 | 20 May to 17 June 2021 | After transition period | 727 |
| 5 | 15 September to 19 October 2021 | After transition period | 802 |
One of the areas the research explored was how traders dealt with customs declarations. Four in five (81%) traders said they had hired a customs intermediary at wave 5. This had significantly increased from wave 2, when only 30% of traders had hired one. Only 10% of traders at wave 5 intended to handle customs declarations themselves and this had decreased since wave 2 (29%). Of these, only a small minority had registered or applied for a CHIEF badge, the National Export System, or had purchased software.
The research showed an increase in the proportion of traders starting to make full declarations. At wave 3, almost half (48%) had started to make full declarations, and this stood at 61% by wave 5. At wave 5 one-fifth of importers of non-controlled goods (18%) were still undecided when they would make full declarations. However, the percentage of traders that were undecided had fallen wave on wave. Among those submitting full declarations, almost half (46%) at wave 5 were doing this via their freight forwarder. Around a quarter were using an express operator or a customs agent or broker (28% and 26% respectively).
The research also looked at how those importing goods from the EU managed their Import VAT. At wave 5, one-third (33%) of importers said they planned to pay import VAT on individual consignments when at the UK border. A further quarter (24%) planned to pay import VAT via postponed VAT accounting. Of those using Postponed VAT Accounting, 61% were both aware of and used Customs Declaration Service (CDS). At wave 5, over half (53%) of traders who imported from the EU used a contractor or business they already had to help with customs duty requirements on import VAT. A further 39% handled import VAT by themselves.
From wave 3 onwards, the research examined how trading behaviours had changed since the end of the transition period. In the most recent survey at wave 5, 88% of traders had attempted to import from the EU, and 87% had attempted to export to the EU since 1 January 2021. The proportion reporting this increased from waves 3 to 53.
At wave 5, almost half (44%) of exporters said they now exported less. However, the majority of importers (63%) at the time of the survey had not changed how much they imported since the end of transition period. Among traders who were importing or exporting less, 64% and 58% respectively had not actively stopped importing or exporting since the end of the transition period.
Across waves 2 to 5, traders were asked about the steps they had taken to increase their knowledge of custom requirements. At wave 2, 78% of traders had taken at least one step to increase their knowledge. This increased to almost all (96%) traders that had taken at least one step by wave 5. The main steps taken at wave 5 were to read guidance on customs requirements on GOV.UK (83%), speak to a customs intermediary (77%) or another third party (71%).