Research and analysis

Executive Summary: Traders Survey - How NI-EU and GB-EU traders moved goods between GB, NI, Ireland and the EU after the end of the transition period Wave 2 to 5 summary report (2020-2021)

Published 15 July 2025

This research was commissioned under the Conservative administration (2010 to 2024), and conducted between July 2020 and October 2021.

Wave 1 was conducted between 23 July to 20 August 2020.

Wave 2 was conducted between 21 October to 18 November 2020.

Wave 3 was conducted between 3 February to 2 March 2021.

Wave 4 was conducted between 20 May to 17 June 2021.

Wave 5 was conducted between 15 September to 19 October 2021.

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Research Report 814.

1. Executive summary

HMRC commissioned Ipsos to conduct research to examine Great Britain (GB) and Northern Ireland (NI) based traders moving goods between Northern Ireland and the European Union (EU) readiness, operations, and barriers to continue trading with the EU and between Great Britain and Northern Ireland during the transition period and beyond.

Specifically, the research aimed to identify what business and routes NI-EU and GB-EU traders have been undertaking with Ireland and between GB and NI; to understand how trading has changed since the end of the transition period; explore awareness and attitudes towards the Trader Support Service, awareness and knowledge of the NI Protocol and supplementary declarations; and explore NI-EU traders’ barriers to trading with the EU.

The research included 5 waves of random probability telephone surveys to measure change in readiness over time. Wave 1 was conducted in July and August 2020 prior to the end of the transition period with traders based in Great Britain moving goods to or from the European Union (GB-EU traders) only. A summary of findings from wave 1 are set out in the GB-EU report. A summary of dates and interview numbers can be found below.

Fieldwork dates	Transition period	All NI-EU traders	All GB-EU traders	GB-EU traders who trade with NI
Wave 1 (23 July 2020 to 20 August 2020)	During transition period	not applicable	602	283
Wave 2 (21 October 2020 to 18 November 2020)	During transition period	265	606	132
Wave 3 (3 February 2021 to 2 March 2021)	After transition period	255	814	324
Wave 4 (20 May 2021 to 17 June 2021)	After transition period	268	727	378
Wave 5 (15 September 2021 to 19 October 2021)	After transition period	249	802	516

The survey findings show a broadly stable picture of routes used to trade between Great Britain, Northern Ireland and Ireland over the course of the survey (from wave 2 in October 2020 to wave 5 in October 2021). At wave 5, 3 in 10 traders (30%) reported that they had altered routes, for example, no longer moving goods via Ireland on the route between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

At wave 5, 61% of NI-EU traders moved goods between or via Great Britain. At waves 2 and 4, the proportion of NI-EU traders who moved goods between or via Great Britain was similar (56% and 59% respectively) but was lower in Wave 3 (49%). Most NI-EU traders moved goods in both directions and the proportion remained stable across wave 2 to 5 (66% at wave 2, 70% at wave 3, 70% at wave 4, and 69% at wave 5).

At wave 5, 43% of GB-EU traders moved goods between or via Northern Ireland, with the majority (79%) moving goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. The proportion of GB-EU traders who moved goods between or via Northern Ireland was similar at earlier waves (40% at wave 2, 43% at waves 3 and 4). The majority of GB-NI traders used a direct route, (i.e., not going via Ireland) for example, 86% at wave 5.

Most NI-EU and GB-EU traders moved goods directly between Great Britain and Northern Ireland (80% NI-EU traders and 86% GB-EU traders at wave 5) ^{[footnote 1]}.

Almost 9 in 10 NI-EU traders traded goods with Ireland at wave 5 (86%), with half having both imported and exported to the country (51%). These figures were similar at wave 2 (92% and 50%, respectively), wave 3 (90% and 48%) and wave 4 (86% and 47%).

In contrast, only around half of GB-EU traders (48%) traded goods with Ireland, and most of these traders’ exported goods to Ireland rather than imported goods from the country (89% and 24%, respectively). This pattern was also seen across wave 2 (52% and 80%, respectively), wave 3 (49% and 82) and wave 4 (52% and 84%).

Both NI-EU and GB-NI traders were most likely to have used a haulier for transporting goods to or from Northern Ireland (70% and 51% at wave 5 respectively). NI-EU traders moved goods between Northern Ireland and Great Britain more often than GB-NI traders (55% did this at least weekly at wave 5 compared with 24% of GB-EU traders).

Most goods moved between Northern Ireland and Great Britain were finished goods in their final form (89% of NI-EU traders and 74% of GB-NI traders reported this at wave 5).

A minority of traders moved goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland to another part of their business rather than to a customer (13% of NI-EU traders and only 4% of GB-NI traders at wave 4).

Among both NI-EU and GB-NI traders, most said that the value of goods transported to or from Northern Ireland had increased or stayed the same between 2019/20 and 2020/21 (77% and 59% respectively at wave 5). One in five traders reported that the value of goods increased, and one third reported that the value had decreased (20% and 34% respectively at wave 5) ^{[footnote 2]}.

Between wave 2 and wave 3, there was an increased awareness (70% at wave 2 and 90% at wave 3) and knowledge (34% at wave 2 and 49% at wave 3) of the Northern Ireland protocol among NI-EU traders ^{[footnote 3]}. Awareness and knowledge then stabilised at wave 4 (93% and 50% respectively). At wave 5, virtually all (98%) NI-EU traders were aware of the Northern Ireland protocol.

There was also a similar increase in awareness of the Northern Ireland protocol among GB-EU traders (70% at wave 2, 90% at wave 3, 88% at wave 4 and 89% at wave 5). However, the proportion of traders with knowledge of the Northern Ireland protocol remained stable between waves 2 and 4 (34% at wave 2, 34% at wave 3 and 29% at wave 4) among GB-EU traders^{[footnote 4]}.

Awareness of the Trader Support Service also increased markedly from wave 2 to wave 3 among NI-EU traders (48% at wave 2, and 78% at wave 3) and then increased steadily at wave 4 (82%) and wave 5 (87%). The survey showed lower levels of awareness of the Trader Support Service among GB-EU businesses that traded with Northern Ireland (52% at wave 3, 60% at wave 4 and 56% at wave 5)^{[footnote 5]}.

The survey revealed there was an increase in traders signing up to the Trader Support Service across the study (55% at wave 2, 62% at wave 3, 65% at wave 4, and 74% at wave 5 among NI-EU traders). GB-EU businesses that traded with Northern Ireland were much less likely to have signed up to the service 23% at wave 3, 28% at wave 4, and 21% at wave 5)^{[footnote 6]}.

Most NI-EU traders found the Trader Support Service useful, and ratings improved between waves 3 and 4 (40% at wave 3, 56% at wave 4, and 58% at wave 5)^{[footnote 7]}. Just over half (53%) of GB-EU traders found the trader support service useful at wave 5^{[footnote 8]}.

At waves 4 and 5, NI-EU and GB-EU traders that moved goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland were asked about their awareness of the need to make supplementary declarations for such trade as of the 1st of January 2021^{[footnote 9]}. Almost 9 in 10 NI-EU traders moving goods between GB and NI were aware of the need to make supplementary declarations at both waves (88% at wave 4 and 87% at wave 5). Although awareness was high, GB-EU traders moving goods between GB and NI were less likely to be aware than NI-EU traders of the need to make supplementary declarations for this trade (78% at wave 4 and 73% in wave 5).

Wave 4 and wave 5 traders that moved goods from GB to NI were asked about goods considered ‘at risk’^{[footnote 10]}. Between wave 4 and 5, there was an increase in NI-EU traders moving goods from Great Britain into Northern Ireland that did not consider their goods to be ‘at risk’ (71% and 81% respectively). Among GB-EU traders moving goods into Northern Ireland, the proportion remained stable at around 8 in 10 (79% at wave 4 and 82% at wave 5).

Across all waves, NI-EU traders were asked about the barriers to continue trading with the EU after the end of the transition period. At waves 4 and 5, the survey also examined the types of support that traders thought would help them to overcome these barriers. At least half of NI-EU traders cited barriers to being ready to continue trading with the EU at each wave (wave 2; 60%, wave 3; 56%, wave 4; 56% and 55% in wave 5).

Among NI-EU traders that mentioned barriers, more than 8 in 10 (84% at wave 4 and 83% at wave 5) specified at least one type of support that would be helpful. Clearer information and communication (46%), legislative changes (33%) and financial support (26%) were most commonly mentioned.

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1. Question only asked at wave 5. ↩

2. Question only asked at wave 5. ↩

3. Question about knowledge of Northern Ireland protocol not asked in wave 5. ↩

4. Question about knowledge of Northern Ireland protocol not asked in wave 5. ↩

5. Question about awareness of trader support service has small ineligible base at wave 2, so it is not reported (n=25). ↩

6. Question had small base at wave 2 (n=21) so percentages cannot be reported ↩

7. Question not asked at wave 2. ↩

8. Question had small base at wave 4 (n=57), wave 3 (n=81), so percentages cannot be reported and is not asked at wave 2. ↩

9. Question only asked at wave 4 and wave 5. ↩

10. Question only asked at wave 4 and 5. ↩