Low income poverty projections for children, FYE 2026 to FYE 2031, July 2026
Provides the government’s current best estimate of the future low income poverty trends for children based on the policy position and economic assumptions after Spring Statement 2026.
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It is estimated that there will be 3.6 million children in relative low income after housing costs (AHC) in the final year of parliament (financial year ending (FYE) 2030). This is projected to represent a reduction of 400,000 children in relative low income after housing costs across the Parliament (between FYE 2025 and FYE 2030).
Projections of low income poverty trends are not a forecast, they are a projection under a specific set of assumptions and are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. They should only be used to provide an indication of future trends.
Please note that the projections have been stitched to updated Households Below Average Income (HBAI) statistics which now use an improved approach to using administrative data in place of Family Resources Survey (FRS) survey responses.