Research and analysis
Low income poverty projections for children, FYE 2025 to FYE 2031, February 2026
Provides the government’s current best estimate of the future low income poverty trends for children based on the policy position after Budget 2025.
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It is estimated that there will be 4.2 million children in relative low income after housing costs (AHC) in the final year of parliament (FYE 2030). This is projected to represent a reduction of 500,000 children in relative low income after housing costs across the Parliament (between FYE 2025 and FYE 2030).
Projections of low income poverty trends are not a forecast, they are a projection under a specific set of assumptions and are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. They should only be used to provide an indication of future trends.
Updates to this page
Published 3 February 2026