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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/import-trends-monitor/uk-imports-trends-monitor-imports-up-to-31-august-html
UK Import Trends Monitor
An assessment of HMRC data for UK imports up to 31 August 2026
Published: 23 October 2026
1. Purpose
This analysis seeks to identify anomalous increases in import volume and anomalous decreases in import unit prices for goods imported into the UK. The approach is designed to highlight patterns in trade that may warrant further investigation, particularly where there is a risk of negative impacts on UK producers. The findings are intended to serve as an initial indication of commodities that may require further investigation. It does not provide a definitive assessment or conclusive evidence of grounds for a trade remedy investigation. New cases must meet legislative requirements. Further engagement with industry stakeholders and complementary qualitative evidence will help to validate and contextualise these findings.
2. Methodology
The analysis utilises data published by HMRC, covering UK imports of individual CN8 commodities up to the end of August 2026. For each CN8 commodity, imports during the most recent 12 months for which data are available are compared with imports during the same period in previous years. A series of quantatitive criteria are evaluated to determine whether a particular CN8 commodity has exhibited an anomalous increase in import volume, or decrease in import unit price. Note that the identification of a commodity through this analysis does not necessarily confirm the existence of an unfair trading practice. It is also likely that the analysis will not identify all commodities that may require further investigation.
2.1 Criteria for detecting anomalous increases in import volume
1.Percentage Increase in Import Volume
Checks whether the import volume in the latest 12 months has increased by at least 20%, compared to the same 12 month period in the previous year.
2.Statistically Unusual Percentage Change
Evaluates whether the annual percentage change in import volume is unexpectedly large compared to typical fluctuations. This is measured using a Z-score, which describes how far a value is from the average in terms of standard deviations. In this case, the Z-score reflects deviation from the historical average percentage change in 12-month volumes, calculated using historical data since 2016. A z-score of at least 2 indicates that the latest annual percentage change is a statistically rare increase, and this criterion is met.
3.Statistically Unusual Absolute Change
Evaluates whether the absolute change in import volume between the latest 12 months and the previous 12 months is unexpectedly large compared to typical fluctuations. In this case, the Z-score reflects deviation from the historical average absolute change in 12-month volumes. A Zscore of at least 2 indicates that the latest annual absolute change is a statistically rare increase, and this criterion is met.
If all three criteria are met for a given CN8 commodity, that commodity is flagged as exhibiting an anomalous increase in import volume.
2.2 Criteria for detecting anomalous decreases in import unit price
1.Percentage Decrease in Import Unit Value
Checks whether the import unit value in the latest 12 months has increased by at least 20%, compared to the same 12-month period in the previous year.
2.Statistically Unusual Percentage Change
Evaluates whether the annual percentage change in import unit price is unexpectedly large compared to typical fluctuations. This is measured using a Z-score, which describes how far a value is from the average in terms of standard deviations. In this case, the Z-score reflects deviation from the historical average percentage change in 12-month unit prices, calculated using historical data since 2016. A z-score of at least 2 indicates that the latest annual percentage change is a statistically rare increase, and this criterion is met.
3.Statistically Unusual Absolute Change
Evaluates whether the absolute change in import volume between the latest 12 months and the previous 12 months is unexpectedly large compared to typical fluctuations. In this case, the Z-score reflects deviation from the historical average absolute change in 12-month volumes. A Zscore of 2 or higher indicates that the latest annual absolute change is a statistically rare increase, and this criterion is met.
If all three criteria are met for a given CN8 commodity, that commodity is flagged as exhibiting an anomalous increase in import unit price.
2.3 Notes
The methodology is subject to continuous review and enhancement, and may be adjusted in future releases.
Due to a lack of sufficiently granular production data, it is not possible to determine whether there is UK production across all CN8 commodity codes.
Value is in current prices and has not been adjusted for inflation.
Some commodity codes will have been changed, merged or dropped over time in line with concordance changes. These changes have not been captured.
HMRC data is considered provisional for 18 months, whilst checks are undertaken.
Country of origin data may be incorporated in future iterations as more data are collected. Results relating to global imports are unaffected by which country attribution is used. Active investigations assess both country of origin and country of dispatch data.
Several factors may influence the results, including:
* Statistical artefacts: Some commodities may be flagged as a result of baseline effects, where low import volumes or unit prices in previous years exaggerate percentage changes. These baseline effects are more likely when assessing imports dispatched from specific partner countries or regions.
* Product heterogeneity: Variations in product quality, branding, or specification within the same commodity code can distort price comparisons. This analysis does not account for any such differences.
* Temporary fluctuations: Short-term spikes in trade may not indicate a structural shift or diversion of trade flows.
* Data limitations: The analysis is based on available customs data and may not capture all relevant market dynamics or supply chain changes.
* Country attribution: Country of dispatch is used rather than country of origin, as origin data hasn’t been collected on a consistent basis far enough back to support this methodology. The country of dispatch is not necessarily the same as the country of origin for a given import.
3. Results
3.1 Import volume
The following heatmap shows the total number of CN8 commodities, grouped by HS section, that displayed an anomalous increase in import volume during the 12 months to August 2026. Results are also provided for a selection of trading partners or trading blocs covered by existing UK trade remedy measures or live investigations. The analysis is based on a methodology (detailed in the Methodology section) applied separately at both the global level, represented in shades of red, and for a selection of individual countries and regions, represented in shades of blue. Because the methodology is applied independently for each geographical group, a commodity may be flagged as displaying an anomalous increase in import volume from from a specific country or region, even if it is not flagged at the global level, or vice versa.
Note, the following heatmaps reflect the number of CN8 codes flagged under the applied criteria, and do not account for the total value or volume of imports. HS sections with a greater number of constituent CN8 codes may naturally exhibit a higher count of flagged goods. Partner countries/regions accounting for a greater overall number of imported CN8 codes may naturally exhibit a higher count of flagged goods.
3.2 Import unit price
The following heatmap shows the total number of CN8 commodities, grouped by HS section, that displayed an anomalous decrease in import unit price during the 12 months to August 2026. Results are also provided for a selection of trading partners or trading blocs covered by existing UK trade remedy measures or live investigations. The analysis is based on a methodology (detailed in the Methodology section) applied separately at both the aggregate level, represented in shades of purple, and for a selection of individual countries and regions, represented in shades of teal. Because the methodology is applied independently for each geographical group, a commodity may be flagged as displaying an anomalous decrease in import unit price from from a specific country or region, even if it is not flagged at the global level, or vice versa.
Note, the heatmap only reflects the number of CN8 codes flagged under the applied criteria. It does not account for the total value or volume of imports. HS sections with a greater number of constituent CN8 codes may naturally exhibit a higher count of flagged goods. Partner countries/regions accounting for a greater overall number of imported CN8 codes may naturally exhibit a higher count of flagged goods.
3.3 Goods flagged based on trends in import volumes and per unit price
The following table reports additional information on the specific commodities that were flagged based on global imports, including the volume and average unit price for imports during the latest 12 months, and percentage changes in those metrics since the previous 12-month period. It also shows whether a commodity was flagged on the basis of an anomalous increase in import volume, an anomalous decrease in import unit price, or both.
HS Section
CN8 code
Increase in volume or decrease in price
Import Volume (tonnes): Current 12month window
Import Volume (tonnes): % Change from previous 12-month window
Import Unit Price (£/Kg): Current 12month window
Import Unit Price (£/Kg): % Change from previous 12-month window
1: Live animals (5)
01051300: Live domestic ducks, weighing <= 185 g
Increase in import volume
10t
▲ 3200%
96.07£/Kg
▼ -90%
02101190: Hams, shoulders and cuts thereof of nondomestic swine, salted, in brine, dried or smoked, with bone in
Increase in import volume
431t
▲ 154%
4.21£/Kg
▼ -30%
03027900: Fresh or chilled, Nile perch Lates niloticus and snakeheads Channa spp.
Increase in import volume
15t
▲ 600%
2.11£/Kg
▼ -64%
03079100: Live, fresh or chilled molluscs, even in shell (excl. oysters, scallops of the genera Pecten, Chlamys or Placopecten, mussels Mytilus spp., Perna spp., cuttle fish and squid, octopus Octopus spp., snails other than sea snails, clams, cockles and ark shells, abalone and stromboid conchs)
Increase in import volume
215t
▲ 1345%
2.44£/Kg
▼ -74%
04049029: Products consisting of natural milk constituents, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, of a fat content, by weight, of > 27%, n.e.s.
Increase in import volume
676t
▲ 818%
2.50£/Kg
▼ -61%
2: Vegetables and vegetable products (2)
07119050: Onions provisionally preserved, e.g. by sulphur dioxide gas, in brine, in sulphur water or in other preservative solutions, but unsuitable in that state for immediate consumption
Increase in import volume
9,818t
▲ 178%
0.43£/Kg
▼ -52%
10079000: Grain sorghum (excl. for sowing)
Increase in import volume
32,016t
▲ 195%
0.09£/Kg
▼ -64%
4: Prepared foodstuffs (3)
16041590: Prepared or preserved mackerel of species Scomber australasicus, whole or in pieces (excl. minced)
Increase in import volume
39t
▲ 8776%
1.93£/Kg
▼ -84%
17029010: Chemically pure maltose, in solid form
Increase in import volume
1,065t
▲ 329%
1.34£/Kg
▼ -50%
23099070: Preparations, incl. premixes, for animal food, containing no starch, glucose, maltodextrine or maltodextrine syrup, but containing milk products (excl. dog or cat food put up for retail sale)
29389090: Glycosides, natural or reproduced by synthesis, and their salts, ethers, esters and other derivatives (excl. rutoside rutin and its derivatives, digitalis glycosides, glycyrrhizic acid and glycyrrhizates)
Increase in import volume
2,827t
▲ 297%
7.73£/Kg
▼ -71%
29396200: Ergotamine INN and its salts
Increase in import volume
0t
▲ 350%
57561.11£/Kg
▼ -30%
30064000: Dental cements and other dental fillings; bone reconstruction cements
Increase in import volume
669t
▲ 65%
132.83£/Kg
▼ -27%
7: Plastics and rubber, and articles thereof (2)
39100000: Silicones in primary forms
Increase in import volume and decrease in import unit price
112,783t
▲ 262%
1.74£/Kg
▼ -73%
40159000: Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, for all purposes, of vulcanised rubber (excl. hard rubber and footwear and headgear and parts thereof, and gloves, mittens and mitts)
Increase in import volume
3,995t
▲ 272%
5.53£/Kg
▼ -52%
8: Consumable animal and plant products (4)
41012050: Whole raw hides and skins of bovine incl. buffalo or equine animals, whether or not dehaired, unsplit, of a weight per skin <= 8 kg when simply dried or <= 10 kg when dry-salted
Increase in import volume
24t
▲ 2399900%
0.26£/Kg
▼ -100%
41012080: Whole raw hides and skins of bovine incl. buffalo or equine animals, whether or not dehaired, unsplit, of a weight per skin <= 16 kg, limed, pickled or otherwise preserved (excl. fresh or wet-salted, simply dried or dry-salted, tanned, parchmentdressed or further prepared)
Increase in import volume
20t
▲ 18712%
6.36£/Kg
▼ -93%
42029219: Insulated food or beverage bags, shopping bags, map-cases, tool bags, jewellery boxes, cutlery cases, binocular cases, camera cases, gun cases, holsters and similar containers, with outer surface of plastic sheeting (excl. travellingcases, briefcases, satchels and similar containers, bag or handbag articles, travelling-bags, toilet bags, sports bags, rucksacks and musical instrument cases)
Increase in import volume and decrease in import unit price
25,522t
▲ 63%
3.25£/Kg
▼ -44%
43040000: Artificial fur and articles thereof (excl. gloves made of leather and artificial fur, footware and headgear and parts thereof, and goods of chapter 95, e.g. toys, games and sports equipment)
Increase in import volume
816t
▲ 766%
7.58£/Kg
▼ -51%
9: Wood and articles thereof (1)
44039900: Wood in the rough, whether or not stripped of bark or sapwood, or roughly squared (excl. rough-cut wood for walking sticks, umbrellas, tool shafts and the like; wood cut into boards or beams, etc.; wood treated with paint, stains, creosote or other preservatives, coniferous and tropical wood, oak, beech, birch, poplar, aspen and eucalyptus)
Increase in import volume
217,802t
▲ 2229%
0.01£/Kg
▼ -97%
11: Textiles and articles thereof (5)
52010010: Cotton, neither carded nor combed, rendered absorbent or bleached
Increase in import volume
481t
▲ 526%
0.74£/Kg
▼ -90%
58063210: Narrow woven fabrics of man-made fibres, with real selvedges, with a width of <= 30 cm, n.e.s.
Increase in import volume and decrease in import unit price
3,664t
▲ 157%
3.26£/Kg
▼ -63%
61101190: Women’s or girls’ jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles, of wool, knitted or crocheted (excl. jerseys and pullovers containing >= 50% by weight of wool and weighing >= 600 g/article, and wadded waistcoats)
Increase in import volume
4,728t
▲ 161%
20.72£/Kg
▼ -59%
61101990: Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles, of fine animal hair, knitted or crocheted, for women or girls (excl. from hair of Kashmir cashmere goats and quilted articles)
Increase in import volume
423t
▲ 54%
33.90£/Kg
▼ -19%
62113331: Men’s or boys’ lined tracksuits, of manmade fibres, with an outer shell of a single identical fabric (not knitted or crocheted)
Increase in import volume
207t
▲ 239%
28.98£/Kg
▼ -25%
13: Nonmetallic mineral products – stone, plaster, cement, ceramic and articles thereof (1)
68042230: Millstones, grindstones, grinding wheels and the like, without frameworks, for sharpening, polishing, trueing or cutting, of artificial abrasives, with binder of ceramics or silicates (excl. of agglomerated synthetic or natural diamond, hand sharpening or polishing stones, perfumed pumice stones, and grinding wheels etc. specifically for dental drill engines)
Increase in import volume and decrease in import unit price
2,165t
▲ 139%
4.04£/Kg
▼ -50%
15: Base metals and articles of base metals (7)
72072019: Semi-finished products of iron or nonalloy steel, containing by weight >= 0,25% carbon, of square or rectangular cross-section, the width < twice the thickness, forged
Increase in import volume
32t
▲ 403762%
1.23£/Kg
▼ -100%
72189911: Semi-finished products of stainless steel, of square cross-section, rolled or obtained by continuous casting
Increase in import volume
1,691t
▲ 846%
1.83£/Kg
▼ -68%
74032100: Copper-zinc base alloys brass unwrought
Increase in import volume
2,806t
▲ 235%
7.11£/Kg
▲ -0%
75052200: Wire of nickel alloys (excl. electrically insulated products)
Increase in import volume and decrease in import unit price
2,181t
▲ 106%
11.45£/Kg
▼ -59%
81029400: Unwrought molybdenum, incl. bars and rods obtained simply by sintering
Increase in import volume
805t
▲ 172%
50.91£/Kg
▲ 17%
83012000: Locks used for motor vehicles, of base metal
Increase in import volume and decrease in import unit price
17,028t
▲ 107%
5.69£/Kg
▼ -57%
83119000: Wire, rods, tubes, plates, electrodes and the like, of base metal or of metal carbides, coated or cored with flux material, for soldering, brazing, welding or deposition of metal or metal carbides, n.e.s., and wire and rods of agglomerated base metal powder, for metal spraying, n.e.s.
Increase in import volume
6,034t
▲ 177%
1.07£/Kg
▼ -65%
16: Machinery and mechanical equipment for sound and imagery, and accessories thereof (9)
84011000: Nuclear reactors [Euratom]
Increase in import volume
1,064t
▲ 412483%
101.63£/Kg
▲ 33%
84081039: Compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine diesel or semi-diesel engine for vessels, new, of a power > 50 kW but <= 100 kW (excl. for vessels of heading 8901 to 8906, tugs of subheading 8904.00.10 and warships of subheading 8906.10.00)
Increase in import volume
231t
▲ 462%
14.92£/Kg
▼ -64%
84137051: Radial flow centrifugal pumps with a discharge outlet diameter > 15 mm, single-stage, with single entry impeller, monobloc (excl. pumps of subheading 8413.11 and 8413.19, fuel, lubricating or cooling medium pumps for internal combustion piston engine, concrete pumps, submersible pumps and impeller pumps for heating systems and warm water supply)
Increase in import volume
10,434t
▲ 380%
3.38£/Kg
▼ -80%
84145100: Table, floor, wall, window, ceiling or roof fans, with a self-contained electric motor of an output <= 125 W
Increase in import volume
27,635t
▲ 89%
5.89£/Kg
▼ -17%
84248210: Agricultural or horticultural watering appliances, whether or not hand-operated
Increase in import volume
4,807t
▲ 144%
4.45£/Kg
▼ -45%
84433100: Machines which perform two or more of the functions of printing, copying or facsimile transmission, capable of connecting to an automatic data-processing machine or to a network
Increase in import volume and decrease in import unit price
61,142t
▲ 141%
5.05£/Kg
▼ -64%
84651090: Machines for working wood, cork, bone, hard rubber, hard plastics or similar hard materials, which can carry out different types of machining operations without tool change between such operations, with automatic transfer of workpiece between each operation
Increase in import volume
3,349t
▲ 201%
9.55£/Kg
▼ -52%
84799070: Parts of machines and mechanical appliances having individual functions, n.e.s. (excl. of cast iron or cast steel)
Increase in import volume
39,484t
▲ 137%
13.83£/Kg
▼ -61%
84805000: Moulds for glass (excl. moulds of graphite or other carbons and ceramic moulds)
Increase in import volume
8,498t
▲ 427%
2.48£/Kg
▼ -88%
17: Specialised machinery for the transport sector (2)
87036090: Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of <10 persons, incl. station wagons and racing cars, with both sparkignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine and electric motor as motors for propulsion, capable of being charged by plugging to external source of electric power, used (excl. vehicles for travelling on snow and other specially designed vehicles of subheading 8703.10)
Increase in import volume
1,826t
▲ 1372%
14.96£/Kg
▼ -67%
87043199: Motor vehicles for the transport of goods, with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, of a gross vehicle weight <= 5 t, of a cylinder capacity <= 2.800 cm, used (excl. dumpers for offhighway use of subheading 8704.10, special purpose motor vehicles of heading 8705 and special motor vehicles for the transport of highly radioactive materials)
Some visualisations, such as the heatmaps, may not be fully accessible for users relying on assistive technologies like screen readers. If you require the information in an alternative format or need assistance, please contact us at statistics@traderemedies.gov.uk
