UK Import Trends Monitor
This new tool provides import data for goods to the UK over the past year, helping identify anomalies in volume and prices that may affect UK producers.
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Details
About the TRA
The Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) is an arm’s-length body of the Department for Business and Trade. The TRA investigates allegations of unfair international trade practices which are harming UK producers, as well as unforeseen surges of imports. It does this to establish whether measures should be put in place to address the injury caused, normally in the form of duties.
About the Import Trends Monitor (ITM)
- This new tool from the Trade Remedies Authority gives import data for goods coming into the UK over the past 12 months. It can help spot anomalous increases in import volume and decreases in import unit prices, potentially highlighting patterns in trade where there is a risk of negative impact on UK producers. This tool will be updated monthly.
- This information will inform the TRA case pipeline and will be shared with other government bodies in creating a watch-list to track priority commodities. Our Advisory Service is working with our analytical teams to recognise trends and shifts which may give further insight into potentially impacted sectors and provide guidance on potential cases.
To note
- The data provided here does not provide a definitive assessment or conclusive evidence of grounds for a trade remedy investigation. New cases must meet legislative requirements.
- If you are a UK producer and suspect the data displayed in this tool suggests a negative impact affecting your industry, please contact the TRA’s Trade Remedies Advisory service at contact@traderemedies.gov.uk.
Notes
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The methodology is subject to continuous review and enhancement, and may be adjusted in future releases.
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Due to a lack of sufficiently granular production data, it is not possible to determine whether there is UK production across all CN8 commodity codes.
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Value is in current prices and has not been adjusted for inflation.
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Some commodity codes will have been changed, merged or dropped over time in line with concordance changes. These changes have not been captured.
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HMRC data is considered provisional for 18 months, whilst checks are undertaken.
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Country of origin data may be incorporated in future iterations as more data are collected. Results relating to global imports are unaffected by which country attribution is used. Active investigations assess both country of origin and country of dispatch data.
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Several factors may influence the results, including:
Statistical artefacts:
Some commodities may be flagged as a result of baseline effects, where low import volumes or unit prices in previous years exaggerate percentage changes. These baseline effects are more likely when assessing imports dispatched from specific partner countries or regions.
Product heterogeneity:
Variations in product quality, branding, or specification within the same commodity code can distort price comparisons. This analysis does not account for any such differences.
###Temporary fluctuations: Short-term spikes in trade may not indicate a structural shift or diversion of trade flows.
Data limitations:
The analysis is based on available customs data and may not capture all relevant market dynamics or supply chain changes.
Country attribution:
Country of dispatch is used rather than country of origin, as origin data hasn’t been collected on a consistent basis far enough back to support this methodology. The country of dispatch is not necessarily the same as the country of origin for a given import.