Policy paper

HS2 to Leeds Study terms of reference

Published 17 July 2023

Applies to England

Purpose

The government is fully committed to providing better rail connectivity between London, the Midlands and the North, ensuring all parts of the country benefit from opportunities for economic development and prosperity.

The Integrated Rail Plan for the North and Midlands, published in November 2021, set out the largest ever government investment programme for rail enhancements with a £96 billion core pipeline to be delivered over the next 30 years. This included substantial improvements to connectivity from Leeds to Manchester, Bradford and London via the East Coast Main Line (ECML).

In the Integrated Rail Plan, the government accepted the recommendation of an ‘adaptive approach’ by the National Infrastructure Commission, which means that further projects beyond the core pipeline may be considered in the future should they be delivered on budget. This depends on demand and how economic growth recovers and on the complementary investments being made in areas such as skills.

The adaptive approach includes a study to look at the most effective way to run HS2 trains to Leeds (noting that the Integrated Rail Plan core pipeline already gives HS2 services from Birmingham to Leeds via Manchester), including understanding the optimal solution for capacity at Leeds station and any synergies with the West Yorkshire mass transit system.

The study will, therefore, make a holistic assessment of future rail capacity needs at Leeds station and in the wider area, and the impacts of interfacing projects on these needs. It will assess different options for meeting these needs, building on analysis conducted to date and setting out the likely costs, impacts and outputs associated with each.

The disruption associated with different options, both to passengers and to economic development in the affected area will also be considered. The study will take account of value for money, affordability, deliverability and delivery timescales, to enable the government to take a fully informed decision.

The government’s preferred approach remains that which was set out in the Integrated Rail Plan and the undertaking of a study does not guarantee further interventions will be agreed or progressed. We remain committed to the Integrated Rail Plan’s £96 billion envelope and expect that additions or changes to the core pipeline will be affordable within that. Any options that are progressed, including those that would exceed the £96 billion envelope, will be subject to the established adaptive approach, as set out in the Integrated Rail Plan.

Scope

Technical work will be led by Network Rail with support where needed from HS2 Limited. The study will inform a Strategic Outline Case (SOC) in line with the HM Treasury Green Book and will consider:

• an assessment of the different options for HS2 services to Leeds, following on from work done on the strategic alternatives to the Eastern Leg for the Integrated Rail Plan
• development and assessment of infrastructure solutions at Leeds and the surrounding area to enable HS2 services, interfacing with the work in development, to support the services at Leeds committed to in the Integrated Rail Plan
• safeguarding impacts (including the current Eastern Leg) and any future-proofing required (for example, in the development of the HS2 East Line and the Midland Main Line electrification programme)

The study will assess viable choices consistent with the decisions reached in the Integrated Rail Plan. These would include but are not limited to:

• via Newark: the extension of HS2 Nottingham services via Newark and the East Coast Main Line route
• via Sheffield: the extension of HS2 services from Sheffield
• via Manchester^{[footnote 1]}: the extension of HS2 services from Manchester assuming Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) infrastructure and the HS2 Phase 2b Western Leg as set out in the High-Speed Rail (Crewe-Manchester) Bill, including a new high-speed surface station at Manchester Piccadilly
• via Erewash: with upgrades and electrification to the Erewash Valley and Old Road lines, as well as sections of a new line to complete a route to Leeds
• via full Eastern Leg: completing the HS2 Eastern Leg from the East Midlands broadly, as previously scoped

During the course of the study, we intend to review the case for focusing development work on a smaller number of options taking account of evidence including costs, affordability, benefits and value for money.

Safeguarding on the full Eastern Leg route will remain until the government is in a position to definitively confirm:

• any alternative choice
• whether any part of the existing safeguarded route is still needed under any revised plans

The Department for Transport (DfT) will continue to work with relevant local authorities to adapt existing safeguarding where appropriate and support wider development.

The Leeds station and area options to be assessed will include but are not limited to:

• alterations including new platforms at the existing Leeds station
• non-infrastructure solutions, such as dwell times and timetable changes, including possible changes to the balance of through and terminating services at Leeds and potential changes to surrounding routes and stations to enable these
• implications of the different options to run HS2 to Leeds on the wider network, such as capacity at Sheffield station
• opportunities for West Yorkshire mass transit to release capacity at Leeds

When considering the case for change and the value for money (VfM) assessment, the study will take into account wider transport interventions included in the Integrated Rail Plan or relevant to the route corridor (including mass transit, NPR and ECML upgrades, and improvements at and around Leeds station). It will also take into consideration DfT’s post-COVID-19 long-term rail demand scenarios and analysis of the:

• future demand for different rail services to and within the Leeds area
• potential train service specifications building on the assumptions in the Integrated Rail Plan
• economic impacts that transport interventions could support, such as levelling-up, regeneration and housing
• environmental impacts from both the construction and operation
• rail capacity in the area covered by the scope

Approach

To make the best use of the evidence available to local stakeholders and especially those local authorities impacted most by the study, an officials’ group will be established to enable discussion of assumptions and technical work at significant stages of the project.

Parties will work collaboratively and we will seek to achieve consensus on technical analysis, but DfT will be solely responsible for advice to ministers.

Timing

The study is expected to take 2 years to complete. The results will be reported to the Secretary of State for Transport ahead of any publication. Further decisions may be considered earlier where necessary to support progress on other projects or if certain options are deemed unviable earlier in the process.

1. Preliminary work suggests that the options “via Sheffield” and “via Manchester” would be likely to retain a substantial part of the overall London-Leeds service pattern on the ECML. Other options would be capable – as in the original HS2 proposals – of replacing most ECML services. ↩