Research and analysis

Global trade outlook – June 2025 (web accessible executive summary)

Published 26 June 2025

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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/global-trade-outlook-june-2025-report/global-trade-outlook-june-2025-web-accessible-executive-summary

This executive summary duplicates that in the Global trade outlook - June 2025 (PDF full report).

1. Economic outlook

Global growth is expected to slow progressively over the coming decades, due to maturing emerging markets, slowing population growth and rising uncertainty. Growth prospects are projected to average 2.6% in the 2020s, 2.4% in the 2030s, and 2% in the 2040s.

Emerging markets will claim a growing share of global GDP, with rapid growth centred on South Asia and Africa. However, the US, Europe and China will remain the essential pillars of the global economy.

Towards the end of 2050, most of the largest markets will have reached peak population. Stalling population growth will weigh on economic growth in Europe and Asia Pacific, while driving rapid expansion in Africa.

Services sectors are expected to top global growth, with key tradeable services like media and the digital economy leading the pack. The strong outlook for construction underpins resilient growth in foundational sectors.

The UK is expected to retain its position as the sixth-largest economy, even as rapid growth in emerging markets sees the UK’s share of global GDP decline. Services-centric global growth and rising high-income consumers will play to UK strengths and drive growth.

2. Trade outlook

Global trade is projected to double in nominal terms, but is expected to enter a period of slower, sustained growth; complicated by potential fragmentation among key markets. 

Europe will remain the world’s largest market, even as emerging market growth and shifting value chains diversify global trade and offer significant growth opportunities that surpass the overall slowing of global trade. 

The emergence of over a billion new high-income consumers, primarily concentrated in China and South Asia, will offer rich prospects for exporters, as a diversifying global footprint is increasingly important to reach top potential customers.

Advanced manufacturing will remain the most traded global sector, while services sectors continue to experience rapid growth as rising import demand in priority sectors lifts global exports prospects for UK Industrial Strategy firms. 

The UK is expected to remain a leading trading nation, as exporters benefit from close relationships with some of the world’s fastest growing markets. While Europe will remain the largest destination for UK goods, export destinations are expected to diversify, as growth spreads across regions.

Significant global uncertainty could see a number of trends shift the economic and trade projections contained in the outlook. These include:

  • geoeconomic fragmentation
  • climate and ecological breakdown
  • rapid digital and AI advances
  • conflict and instability
  • migration pressures
  • uneven Net Zero transition

*[GDP] gross domestic product *[US]: United States *[AI] artificial intelligence

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