Research and analysis

Global trade outlook: June 2025 report

This report sets out some of the long-term trends that are likely to shape the global economy and international trade in coming decades.

• From: Department for Business and Trade
• Published: 26 June 2025

Documents

Global trade outlook – June 2025 (web accessible executive summary)

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Global trade outlook - June 2025 (PDF full report)

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Details

This report sets out long-term trends that may shape the global economy and international trade between now and 2050.

The report has been produced to help inform policymakers and strategists, and contribute to the wider debate about the future of trade. It also sets out some of the economic trends that underpin the UK’s trade strategy.

This is the third edition of the Global trade outlook and has been updated to reflect economic developments since 2023.

The report has been written during a period of significant global economic and policy uncertainty. While the outlook occasionally reflects on these uncertainties – including through the medium-term inclusion of International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections – the core forecast does not make judgements about the long-term impact of immediate policy or shocks on the global economy. Instead, it produces a baseline projection of how the economy may develop if recent trends continue.

This projection provides insights into the direction in which core economic variables are pushing the global economy, but it does not reflect the full complexity of what the future holds.

Published 26 June 2025