Research and analysis

Getting started with climate scenario analysis

This crib sheet provides guidance for organisations on using climate scenario analysis to assess climate-related risks and understand their financial impacts.

• From: Government Actuary's Department
• Published: 5 August 2025

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Getting started with climate scenario analysis

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This climate scenario analysis crib sheet provides practical guidance for public sector organisations on implementing climate scenario analysis aligned with TCFD recommendations. It aims to help organisations assess climate risks, understand financial impacts, and support strategic decision-making.

Key steps include:

• Step 1: Survey existing climate work - build on prior assessments to save time and resources.
• Step 2: Establish present-day risk - understand current climate risks as a baseline for future scenarios.
• Step 3: Understand data requirements - identify hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data.
• Step 4: Prioritise and set the scope - focus on the most decision-useful risks, timeframes, and areas.
• Step 5: Assess climate risks - define scenarios, evaluate vulnerabilities, and assess financial impacts.
• Step 6: Evaluate and disclose - align findings with governance and report insights for planning.
• Step 7: Iterate - continuously refine the process with updated data and methods.

This iterative approach ensures organisations enhance resilience by developing a better understanding of how their climate-related risks could materialise and enables them to adapt to emerging climate challenges.

Published 5 August 2025