Futures research: accounting for uncertainty when developing an integrated transport digital twin
Research that summarises how to plan for future uncertainty when developing, trialling and evaluating a digital twin for transport.
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This report examines the wider contextual uncertainty that an integrated transport digital twin programme (ITDT) could face during its development, trialling and evaluation.
A digital twin is a virtual model of an object, system or process connected to its real-world counterpart by a 2-way flow of real-time data. This connection lets us:
- test decisions before taking action
- understand how different actions might affect the real world
An ITDT programme would bring together multimodal:
- integrated corridor twins
- crisis response digital twins
These would use data sharing infrastructure to improve our ability to reactively and proactively support the resilience and efficiency of transport assets and services.
This research supports the development of a robust ITDT programme, by providing a set of:
- critical uncertainties
- scenarios
- wildcards
- guidance
These will enable stress‑testing of ITDT programme design and priorities against credible future uncertainty, strengthening confidence in decisions made under variable technological, climate and market conditions.
The resources summarised in this report can be re-used as a tool to stress-test and inform the development of other data and digital projects with extended delivery and operational timelines.
Mott Macdonald and its partners have produced this report on behalf of the Department for Transport (DfT), as the department’s futures advisor.