Guidance

Flood Outlook: information and user guide

Published 19 March 2026

Applies to England and Wales

1. Overview

Introduction to the Flood Outlook

Summary

The Flood Outlook is designed for planners and decision-makers who need to make decisions over timescales of 6 to 30 days. It:

• is issued twice a month on a Friday
• assesses whether there is an increased, reduced or neutral likelihood of flooding over the coming month
• forecasts at a national scale for England and Wales
• is complementary to the Flood Guidance Statement (FGS)

The assessment is based on:

• weather forecasts
• tidal forecasts
• current hydrological conditions
• professional judgement

The mid-month and end of month issues may be different depending on the data available at the time the Flood Outlook is produced.

Contacting the FFC

To discuss the content of the Flood Outlook you should contact the FFC directly on 0330 135 4400.

The FFC operates a 365 day, 24 hour service.

2. Signing up

You can sign up to receive the Flood Outlook through:

• Hazard Manager - a Met Office Service
• Resilience Direct - by signing up to the FFC’s Flood Outlook group

3. Providing feedback

We welcome your views on the Flood Outlook by email at FFCenquiries@environment-agency.gov.uk.

4. Training and support

Further support to help you understand FFC services include:

• short training videos
• drop in webinars
• bespoke training and materials for your organisation

Find out more about FFC training and support

5. Service features

Front page

The front page of the Flood Outlook:

• brings together the most important forecast information
• can be used as a stand alone onward briefing

It includes:

Forecast period

At the top left of the page, with the date of next issue detailed on the right.

Headline summary

Noting any possible significant, severe or localised flooding.

Flood likelihood table

A summary table showing the overall flood likelihood rating for each flood source. It includes:

• a 5-colour scale to show likelihood relative to a neutral situation
• daily likelihood forecast for weeks 1 and 2, changing to a weekly likelihood forecast for weeks 3 and 4
• ranking of spring tides out of the number of notable spring tides in the calendar year

Weather and hydrological assessment

A summary of meteorological and hydrological conditions (more detail is provided on pages 2 and 3).

Flood source summary

Text explaining the current situation, expected changes and implications for flood likelihood for each flood source.

Page 2

Page 2 provides an assessment of the possible weather conditions over the next month. It includes:

Synoptic charts

Three synoptic charts that best fit the overall trend for the early, mid and late month forecast - with associated text descriptions and interpretation.

Met Office 3-month outlook

A summary of the Met Office 3 month outlook with a hyperlink to view and download the full outlook.

Page 3

Page 3 provides the hydrological assessment, bringing together snapshots of hydrological conditions. It includes:

Hydrological mapping

Three maps showing:

• groundwater levels compared to the historic seasonal mean
• river flows compared to the historic seasonal mean
• catchment sensitivity to rainfall

Text detail

Next to each map there is written text describing:

• the current situation
• how conditions may change over the forecast period
• current flood sensitivity

Page 4

Page 4 provides answers to commonly asked questions about the Flood Outlook.