Research and analysis

Home Office evidence to the NCA Remuneration Review Body (NCARRB), 2025 to 2026 (accessible)

Updated 11 June 2025

1. Introduction

1.1 This document provides supplementary context from a Home Office perspective in relation to the National Crime Agency’s (NCA) 2025/26 pay award evidence. It complements the detailed submission made separately by the NCA to the NCA Remuneration Review Body (NCARRB), ensuring a comprehensive overview of the Agency’s needs and priorities.

1.2 As a Non-Ministerial Department, the NCA is operationally independent of the Home Office. The Crime and Courts Act 2013 and associated NCA Framework Document set out the mechanisms through which the Director General NCA is accountable to the Home Secretary for the Agency’s performance. Additionally, as Principal Accounting Officer, the DG NCA is also accountable to HM Treasury in ensuring departmental spend is neither novel nor contentious and remains within delegated funding limits.

1.3 The Home Office will negotiate the NCA’s budget with HM Treasury, in consultation with the NCA Director General, as part of the annual Main and Supplementary Estimates processes and at Spending Review.

1.4 The NCA is also subject to further external scrutiny by the Scottish Parliament, Northern Ireland Assembly, and the Northern Ireland Policing Board. This reflects the Agency’s UK-wide remit and its importance in tackling threats across territorial boundaries.

2. Strategic context

2.1 Serious and Organised crime (SOC) is a major threat to the national security and prosperity of the UK. It costs lives, blights communities, hampers economic growth, and corrodes the global reputation of the UK and its institutions, with an estimated annual cost running into tens of billions of pounds.

2.2 Criminal networks are increasingly adaptive and sophisticated, leveraging advanced technologies to expand their operations and evade detection. These groups exploit the digital space, frequently conducting cross-border activities with little regard for jurisdiction or human life. The criminal landscape remains dynamic, shaped by global challenges and the rapid evolution of technologies, including artificial intelligence.

2.3 As the UK’s strategic leader in tackling SOC, the NCA continues to develop its use of advanced technology and investigative techniques to keep pace with modern threats. It delivers governmental priorities through initiatives such as its work with the new Border Security Command to disrupt and dismantle the gangs facilitating small boats crossings, while leveraging its niche capabilities and highly trained workforce to tackle the most serious organised crime groups and networks.

2.4 The NCA’s intelligence-led approach and international reach underscores its critical role in safeguarding the UK from SOC. The Agency has expanded its capacity to confront high impact criminal expertise and also pulls from its specialised capabilities and partnerships to combat complex criminal networks. In 2023/2024, the NCA achieved significant outcomes including the disruption of over 5000 criminal groups, leading to more than 1,000 arrests and 600 convictions. 1 These results highlight the Agency’s pivotal role in maintaining the UK’s security and prosperity through effective law enforcement.

2.5 The government recognises the valuable work being carried out by the NCA and remains committed to supporting the NCA to fulfil its essential role in tackling serious organised criminality in and impacting on the United Kingdom.

2.6 The government has made significant progress in strengthening the NCA so that it can tackle the threat from SOC. As part of the recent Spending Review, NCA received a £58 million uplift to its core budget, increasing the Agency’s total 2025/26 budget to almost £1 billion. This will enable the Agency to continue investment in its high-end capabilities driving forward operational delivery against the Home Secretary’s Strategic Priorities and this government missions. The Agency has also committed to delivering targeted efficiency savings in 2025/26, in accordance with the government’s drive towards a more efficient public sector.

2.7 The NCA continues to manage significant financial pressures which present an ongoing challenge to its financial position. These include its forthcoming exit from Spring Gardens and progressing elements of its Transformation Portfolio which the Agency is undertaking in order to modernise its digital infrastructure. Additionally, the Agency must manage the increasing commercial procurement costs associated with these programmes. It is therefore critical that recommendations relating to the pay of the NCA workforce are contextualised within the Agency’s long-term affordability outlook and take account of the significant pressures that exist in its budgets.

3. Economic context

Macroeconomic context

3.1 The rate of UK economic growth since the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 has been substantially lower than in previous decades. Annual real productivity 1 NCA Annual Report and Accounts: 2023 to 2024. growth (GDP per hour worked) fell by around 1.5 percentage points, from an average of 2.1% in the decade prior to the GFC, to 0.6% between 2010 and 2019. Higher productivity enables higher wages and living standards. Only sustained productivity growth over the medium-term can deliver sustainable long run economic growth and real-terms wage rises.

3.2 The government is fixing the foundations of the economy and beginning a decade of national renewal. Through the growth mission, the government is restoring stability, increasing investment, and reforming the economy to drive up prosperity and living standards across the UK.

3.3 The UK economy has faced unprecedented shocks, including the pandemic and Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, which contributed to the largest increase in inflation in almost 50 years. Low and stable price inflation is an essential element of a stable macroeconomic environment, and a pre-requisite for sustainable economic growth and improving living standards. Inflation is normalising after these shocks and is expected to remain close to the 2% target throughout the OBR’s forecast period, and average 2.6% across 2025/26.

3.4 The UK economy is exposed to risks from geopolitical tensions, shifts in global trade, global spillovers from declining demand in China, and any sudden increases in financial market volatility which could tighten financial conditions. Overall, risks are elevated and skewed to the downside. Labour market context

3.5 Settlement data are the most comparable data to PRB decisions, as they are a direct measure of consolidated pay awards and are not directly affected by other factors such as changes to working hours or changes in the composition of employment. According to Brightmine, median settlements across the economy were at 4.8% in 2024 Q2 and 4.0% in 2024 Q3. The OBR’s forecast is for average earnings growth to average 4.5% across 2024/25 – this measure of average earnings growth has historically been higher than average pay settlements, as it is affected by compositional changes in the labour force and factors such as changes to working hours. Against both of these, the 2024/25 award for NCA was ahead of the wider economy, which should support an improvement in recruitment and retention.

3.6 Average earnings growth is forecast to moderate further over the coming months, with the OBR expecting earnings growth to fall to 3% in 2025/26. Survey evidence also points to an easing in wage growth, with Brightmine’s survey showing that settlements are expected to average 3% in 2025. The government has brought forward the pay round this year, which makes it particularly important that PRBs consider forecasts for wage growth.

3.7 While the unemployment rate is low by historical standards, there is substantial uncertainty around the position of the labour market due to ongoing issues with the Labour Force Survey. Other sources suggest that the labour market continues to loosen, with vacancy levels falling, and employee numbers falling in recent months. A loosening labour market should continue to support recruitment and retention across the public sector.

4. The NCA’s Proposals

NCARRB’s 2024/25 Recommendations

4.1 The NCARRB 2024/25 report made the following four recommendations: 1) A redesign of the Agency’s job architecture and an evaluation of all roles to ensure parity with police officers, civil service, and the private sector. 2) A consolidated pay award of 5% for all NCA officers’ Grades 1-6. The spot rates for Grades 1 to 5 and the minima and maxima of the standard pay ranges for Grades 1 to 6 should be raised by 5%. 3) A 5% increase to the London and South-East Weighting Allowance. 4) A review of the allowances of NCA officers in Northern Ireland, with a view to those NCA officers who are subject to similar risks to PSNI officers receiving the same allowance as PSNI officers.

4.2Recommendations two and three were accepted in full and implemented in August 2024. The Home Office recognises the importance of pay awards tied to location allowances in supporting the Agency’s recruitment and retention of skilled officers. These measures strengthen the NCA’s position in the competitive labour markets and have made a positive impact on staff morale in 2024. Recommendation 1 and 4 were partially accepted, however the Agency’s 2025/26 evidence states that a study has since been undertaken which found no justification for introducing or increasing an allowance as specified in recommendation 42 .

Recruitment and Retention Challenges

4.3 Between August 2023 and August 2024, the NCA’s workforce increased from 5973 to 6,2643 , reflecting a 4.87% growth. It is worth noting an identified reduction in overall turnover in the Digital, Data and Technology (DDaT) command, from 12.7% last year, to 9.17% this year. The NCA evidence states this decrease, alongside an overall reduction in attrition within the Agency from 8.8% to 6.92%, is attributable to wider UK economic conditions.

4.4 We nevertheless regard these developments as positive indicators reflecting the Agency’s efforts to strengthen its workforce capacity and retention rates. It suggests the Agency’s internal efforts, such as improved engagement, training schemes and targeted retention initiatives may be yielding results. Understanding and replicating this positive trajectory will be essential to addressing broader recruitment and retention issues across the Agency beyond pay. Despite this notable growth in the NCA’s overall headcount, we note some key challenges remain, and that new ones are emerging.

4.5 Over a three year period, workforce data shows a significant increase in the number of NCA officers identifying as senior management, in particular at Grade 1 (up 39%) and Grade 2 (up 42%). This contrasts sharply with a decrease in NCA officers at Grade 5 (down 13%) and Grade 6 (down 22%). This should elicit concern as these particular cohorts predominately make up frontline operational officers staffing the Intelligence and Investigations commands, widely regarded as the operational engine of the Agency. The NCA has explained in its evidence that this proportional increase in senior management is necessary to meet operational goals. It is unclear to what extent this trend is driven by underlying factors, such as a shift in the type of work the Agency is undertaking, or by grade inflation within the Agency caused by issues in recruitment. This imbalance may be diverting significant resources away from junior grades in critical roles. It will be important to understand and address this trend if the operational effectiveness of the Agency is to be maintained.

4.6 Workforce data also reflects the NCA’s continued struggle to fill its specialist roles, specifically within the aforementioned Intelligence and investigation commands which have seen a reduction of 2.26% and 1.99% within the last year. Given the critical nature of these roles, this will have driven further undesirable spend on contingent labour at the Agency. There is a need for the NCA to assess its specialist roles and the effectiveness of its Recruitment and Retention Allowances closely.

4.7 The NCA’s evidence states that market allowances for DDaT roles in the broader labour market can exceed the NCA’s rates by as much as £15,000, especially in senior roles. As a result, the NCA’s DDaT command continues to face challenges in attracting and retaining the skilled professionals it requires to counter sophisticated criminality effectively. This gap has created a heavy reliance on contingent labour, with DDaT now among the Agency’s three largest areas of contingent labour spend, despite its relatively small size. While contingent labour provides an immediate resolution, it is costly and an unsustainable approach in the long term.

4.8 The NCA may need to consider alternative strategies in addition to pay uplifts to resolve its significant recruitment issues and risk to capabilities. Options could include further significant investments in upskilling and training existing NCA officers, enabling this cohort to develop the critical digital and technical expertise required for DDaT roles. Although such an approach may involve substantial initial costs, it could produce significant long-term savings by reducing dependencies on expensive external contractors as well as burnishing the Agency’s reputation as a world-class institution. In this vein, the Home Office is supportive of the Agency’s efforts to expand its apprenticeship pathways and increase its junior officer pipeline, offering staff a clear pathway for career progression and improving retention. If successful, this would likely represent a proactive, sustainable long-term investment in the Agency’s capability and resilience.

4.9 The main cost pressures affecting the NCA’s affordability ceiling are pay awards, grade inflation and contingent labour, alongside procured services. In particular, the NCA’s evidence states that its contingent labour and professional services currently takes about 27% of the Agency’s pay bill, which is c.£368m. Contingent labour is a valid method of addressing critical skill shortages but reliance upon it adds significant strain to the Agency’s already constrained budget. It is important that workforce spend is targeted and cost effective to ensure value for money for the UK taxpayer. This issue therefore requires immediate and strategic intervention which we understand the Agency is already undertaking.

NCA’s 2025/26 recommendations

4.10 The NCA has proposed a targeted pay uplift to address disparities, including increasing pay range maxima and spot rate levels at a rate in-line with the police award for 2025/26. Alongside, it proposes gradually enhancing location and consolidated allowances to support the Agency’s competitiveness, particularly within the London recruitment market. There are concerns with this approach as location allowances should be specifically intended to compensate employees for the higher cost of living in certain geographic areas, such as London, rather than being utilised as a targeted recruitment method. A more appropriate method for addressing pay disparities between organisations would be the implementation of a targeted retention strategy focussing on role specific incentives. This would more effectively address the compensation gaps without undermining the broader framework of location allowances, ensuring that they retain their original purpose.

4.11 The NCA’s evidence highlights the widening median pay gap between Agency and police pay. This differential has increasingly raised challenges for the Agency’s recruitment and retention strategy, particularly in attracting officers in the mid level of their career. Examples given include the pay disparity for NCA Grade 5 officers in receipt of Spot Rate payments, who still earn an average of £5,185 less than police equivalents (constables), this is the same for NCA Grade 3 officers who earn £7,362 less than police chief inspectors

4.12 This is of importance given the Agency’s recruitment profile: 28.41% of its workforce is drawn from the Civil Service, 24.64% from the police and 23.91% 4 2025/26 NCA evidence to NCARRB - Table 81 from the private sector. While drawing on diverse sources enhances operational effectiveness, the increasing disparity with police pay presents a real challenge in retaining officers who bring critical expertise. Bridging this divide would ensure the Agency can sustain the demands on its operational commands and in the long run reduce pressures on the Agency’s budget.

4.13 The NCA’s evidence demonstrates that it recruits heavily from the Civil Service, with 39.6% of Enabling Capabilities staff recruited directly. It is important to note that in a straight pay band to pay band comparison, published statistics show that the Agency compares highly favourably with the majority of Civil Service departments. For example, at Grades 1 and 2 the NCA median salary is £71,140, higher than the Civil Service equivalent median at Grades 6 and 7 of £60,6705 . Similarly, at Grades 3 and 4, the NCA median of £48,900 significantly exceeds the Civil Service median of £39,940 6 . This differential will increase each year the Agency opts to adopt a higher pay award than the one set by the Civil Service Pay Remit. Many of the roles undertaken by the NCA’s workforce are directly comparable to operational and non-operational roles in other government departments, including those in the Home Office. Most departments, including the Home Office, do not offer staff pay progression. Caution is required to avoid the creation of internal competition within government recruitment markets, particularly given the current fiscal environment and the drive for a more efficient Civil Service.

4.14 Balancing the two competing demands between Civil Service and Police pay drives to the heart of the issue facing the NCA. Satisfying both may prove impossible without significant long-term reform and we note this concern underpinned the NCARRB’s 2024/25 recommendations.

Affordability

4.15 The NCA’s budget has increased consistently over the past five years, by approximately 48.2%. As part of the recent Spending Review, the NCA received a £58 million uplift to its core budget, increasing the Agency’s total 2025/26 budget to almost £1 billion. This reflects the Government’s commitment to supporting the NCA’s efforts in tackling serious and organised crime, notwithstanding challenging fiscal constraints. Despite these efforts, significant affordability challenges persist. Rising operational costs, higher pay awards driven by macroeconomic factors, and cost of living pressures continue to strain budgets. These pressures make affordability challenging. They highlight the critical importance of robust financial management strategies which also allow the Agency to maintain its operational effectiveness.

4.16 The Home Office budget continues to experience significant pressures, leaving no scope for supplementary financial support. It will be necessary for the NCA to carefully consider the risks associated with any pay award recommendations it accepts, not just for the coming 2025/26 year but also in future years.

4.17 The 2021 spending review guided a 2% affordability for future department pay awards between 2022 and 2025. Pay awards at the NCA have consistently exceeded this, averaging 5.67% over the last three years to address recruitment and retention challenges amidst rising inflation and economic pressures. In 2022/23 the NCA’s overall pay bill was c.£339m7 and in 23/24 it increased to c.£368m8 . These uplifts have contributed, alongside increasing commercial and programmatic costs, to affordability pressures within the Agency’s budget.

4.18 The NCA must ensure it retains a streamlined and balanced workforce to remain affordable and deliver value for money. Workforce data indicates the Agency has experienced growth in specific non-operational commands such as HR and Strategy, while Investigations and Intelligence have shrunk. We also draw attention to comments earlier in this section regarding a decrease in G5 officers over the past year and an increase in senior management headcount. The Home Office is working closely with the NCA and NPCC to ensure the NCA remains focussed on delivery of its mission and specialist capabilities. The Agency should carefully consider the balance of its workforce which, based on the data provided, appears to be tilting towards corporate services and threat leadership.

4.19 These issues underline the need for the Agency to be agile, seizing the opportunities presented by its DDaT infrastructure upgrades and upcoming move into modern premises. The Agency must leverage technology and the opportunities afforded by artificial intelligence, using these tools to balance increasing costs and drive future productivity.

5. Conclusion

5.1 The Home Office remains committed to supporting the NCA. It plays a critical role in this government’s mission to tackle serious organised crime and the evolving digital and cross-border advances in criminality. While the NCA continues to deliver its operational outcomes, it is important that the Agency can maintain workforce capability, cohesion, and morale. It is vital that the Agency equips itself with the tools it needs to deliver enhanced productivity, recruitment, and retention of specialist skills, and doing so efficiently with public funds.

5.2 The Agency has stated that its recommendations are affordable within its existing budget, acknowledging the broader fiscal constraints on public finances. Therefore, any additional costs incurred from recommendations will need to be absorbed within the NCA’s budget.

5.3 Through close collaboration, strategic investment and developments in workforce and pay, the Home Office will continue to ensure the NCA is equipped to meet current and future challenges, safeguarding communities, and delivering against governmental priorities.