Research and analysis

Dry weather and drought in England: 10 to 15 October 2025

Updated 17 October 2025

Applies to England

1. Summary

There is continued focus on the area of Sussex supplied by South East Water due to the declining water levels at Ardingly Reservoir.  

Despite improving conditions in north-west England due to recent rainfall, drought risks in parts of the south-east continue to increase. It has been a very dry week across England, with less than 1mm received in most regions. This means October rainfall has been low, with England having received only 25% of the long term average (LTA) rainfall for the month so far. Overall reservoir storage for England has decreased, and continues to fall across the south-east, east and south-west England in particular. With widespread wet weather conditions expected over the weekend and potentially into next week, forecast reservoir levels are likely to stabilise, although further decreases may occur in some areas.

Above average rainfall in September has brought improvements or stabilisation in the water situation for some water companies, but further significant rainfall over a sustained period is needed to return to normal conditions. The return to dry conditions this week puts further focus on the need to continue to manage demand for water and water resources carefully over the autumn and into winter. The 4 water companies who have implemented temporary use bans (TUBs), will need to keep these on, until their resource position has returned to normal – this may stretch well into the winter. With wetter weather and cooler temperatures, increased soil movement should be expected, causing leakage from pipe bursts, so all water companies need to continue with enhanced leakage management.  

September rain has helped with public water supply reservoir storage, particularly in parts of northern England. However, reservoir stocks across England for the period ending 14 October were 63.5%, a decrease of over 2% since the previous week. Reservoir levels fell at over three quarters of reservoirs or reservoir groups. South East Water’s Ardingly reservoir in Sussex has dropped to very low levels and now has under 26% of total storage remaining.

Although recent rainfall has eased some pressure on agriculture, persistent drought conditions and high soil moisture deficits raise concerns about winter reservoir refill for irrigation next year. Drier conditions and low river flows in the south and east mean that hands off flow restrictions on abstraction licences remain. There are currently 465 restrictions in force on abstraction licences (an increase of 1 from last week).
There was a slight increase in environmental incidents this week. There were 4 new reports of dry weather-related environmental incidents, spread out across the country.

The Canal & Rivers Trust network is seeing canals reopen, with key lock flights on the Oxford and Grand Union Canals now available for cruising, although these and others have restricted hours of operation in order to conserve water. Many of the Trust’s reservoirs have failed to show appreciable refill so some closures remain in place.

2. Area drought status

On 10 October, drought was declared in Sussex for the area supplied by South East Water due to declining water levels at Ardingly Reservoir.

2.1 Areas in drought

• Cumbria & Lancashire (CLA)
• Greater Manchester Merseyside & Cheshire (GMMC)
• Yorkshire (YOR)
• East Midlands (EMD)
• West Midlands (WMD)
• Plus parts of Sussex aligning with South East Water supply areas

2.2 Areas in Prolonged Dry Weather (PDW)

• North East (NEA)
• Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire (LNA)
• East Anglia (EAN)
• Thames (THM)
• Wessex (WSX)
• Solent and South Downs (SSD) – remaining parts of area not in drought status

2.3 How the stages of drought response work

Each Area regularly reviews its status based on the triggers in its drought plan.

Further detail of how we manage drought, including our four stages of drought response are available in section 4.2.1 of Drought: how it is managed in England.

3. Current water situation

The week to 14 October was very dry across the whole of England, with just 1mm or less of rainfall received across all regions. This means the October LTA rainfall totals haven’t changed and remain at 26% of the expected rainfall for the month. For the month so far, it has been wettest in northern England where 36% of the LTA has been received, while the south has been drier with around 20% of the LTA being received.

Soil moisture deficits have increased in all regions following a very dry week, and soils are now drier than average in all regions except the north-east and north-west where they are close to average. In east and south-east England, SMDs are more than 100mm, meaning soils are much drier than would be expected for the time of year.

Following a dry week across the country, river flows decreased at almost all gauged sites. Over two-thirds of sites were classed as below normal or lower and in east England, 3 sites were classed as exceptionally low for the time of year. Sixteen sites across England were classed as normal for the time of year.

Reservoir storage for the week to 14 October was 63.5%, having decreased 2%. Storage decreased in more than three-quarters of reservoirs. The largest increase in storage was in the Pennines group which increased by 2% to 60.4%. Thirteen reservoirs are now less than 50% full, including Ardingly, Clatworthy and Wimbleball which are all less than 30% full.

As would be expected at this time of year, groundwater levels continue to recede at sites across England. Chalk aquifers from the Wessex and South Downs to Yorkshire are now below normal or lower, including 2 sites classed as exceptionally low for the time of year. In the Chilterns, North Downs and parts of East Anglia, chalk aquifers are generally in their normal range. Limestone aquifers in east and south-east England are below normal or lower for the time of year.

More details are available in our water situation reports for England.

4.  Public Water Supply

Most water companies continue to follow their drought plans. Several water companies have seen their water resource situation stabilise from recent rainfall, although last week’s dry weather led to widespread reductions. Further significant rainfall is needed to return to normal conditions across many water companies. Concern for many water companies is now on the recovery of water resources over the autumn and winter if conditions are dry.

Water companies report their drought response using operational drought levels, from drought level 1 escalating to level 4. Companies not included below are in business as usual (BAU) mode. We are regularly engaging with all companies and with Water UK on the situation.

4.1 Anglian Water

Anglian Water remains at drought level 1 in the following supply areas: Fenland, Lincolnshire Central, Norfolk Norwich and the Broads, Ruthamford Central, North, South, and West and Essex South. There is no significant change to its water resource position from last week.

4.2 Bristol Water

Bristol Water remains at drought level 2. Reservoir storage decline has slowed. The company is bringing sources back online to conserve storage. Demand is above average for the time of year.

4.3 Cambridge Water

Cambridge Water remains at drought level 1. There is no significant change to its water resource position from last week.

4.4 Essex and Suffolk Water

Essex and Suffolk Water remains at drought level 1 in its Essex and Northern Central supply areas. No significant change to water resource position from last week.

4.5 Northumbrian Water

Northumbrian Water remains at drought level 1. Reservoirs continue to decline over the past week.

4.6 SES Water

SES Water remains in drought level 1. There has been a decline in storage since last week.

4.7 Severn Trent Water

Severn Trent Water is in drought level 1 in its Strategic Grid North zone. The company is continuing leakage reduction activities and enhancing customer communications.

4.8 Southern Water

Southern Water remains at drought level 2 in its Isle of Wight supply area and Southampton West remains in drought level 1. The company implemented a TUB on 21 July for customers in these areas. Southern Water applied to Defra on 18 July for a drought order to alter its River Test abstraction licence conditions and included an application for a non-essential use drought order. Following recent rainfall, the drought order application was withdrawn on 3 October.

4.9 South East Water

South East Water remains in drought level 3 in its resource zones 2 and 3 as of 22 September, due to dropping storage in Ardingly reservoir which, as of 15 October, is at 25.6% (a reduction of 2% since last week) total capacity and is of concern. The company was granted its Ardingly winter drought permit on 22 September and applied for its River Ouse drought order to Defra on 10 October. South East Water implemented a TUB for customers in Kent and Sussex areas, from the 18 July 2025. The company has advertised on its website an update to its TUB exemptions that will apply from 17 October. The company is closely monitoring its Arlington reservoir, which is at 47.8% total capacity. or more details check the Water latest for South East Water.

4.10 South Staffordshire Water

South Staffordshire Water remains at drought level 2. Blithfield reservoir has held at 42.7% since last week.

4.11 South West Water

South West Water remains in business as usual in its Colliford supply area. We are no longer reporting on the company individually unless it moves back to drought level 1, as per its drought plan.

4.12 Thames Water

Thames Water remains at drought level 2 in its Swindon and Oxfordshire supply area (SWOX) and drought level 1 in its London zone. The company implemented a TUB for its SWOX customers on 22 July.

4.13 United Utilities

United Utilities remains in Enhanced Monitoring and Operations in its Strategic Grid supply area and is in business as usual in its Carlisle resource zone. The company’s Pennine reservoirs have stabilised and seeing increases in storage.

4.14 Wessex Water

Wessex Water remains at drought level 1b. There is no significant change to its water resource position from last week.

4.15 Yorkshire Water

Yorkshire Water remains in drought level 3. Reservoir storage has stabilised this week. Supply reservoirs total storage is 53.1%. The expectation is that once drought permits are implemented, this should assist the recovery in levels or slow any further decline. The company implemented a TUB on 11 July. We have now granted 42 drought permits to Yorkshire Water. The 2 Wharfe drought permits and the Ouse drought order were issued on 22 August. We have granted the south group drought permits (7 permits) on 5 September. The north-west group (12 permits) were granted 10 September. The south-west group, 17 permits have been granted, with the final 10 granted on 3 October. North Group (4 permits) were granted on 10 October. The last North Group drought permit is still being assessed.

For more details check the Yorkshire Water website.

5. Agriculture

Rainfall in October has helped ease pressure on the agriculture sector but drier conditions continue across the south and east parts of the country. Drought conditions remain in many parts of the country and there are still concerns regarding the imminent refill of reservoirs this winter and water availability for the irrigation season next year.

With the 2025 cereals harvest now completed, attention turns to establishing next year’s crops. Recent rainfall has improved conditions for establishment of not only crops but also weeds. SMDs are still very high and will hamper germination and establishment, particularly in the East and South East. With lower water availability farmers are likely to turn to cereals over field vegetables in their plans.

Livestock farmers are continuing to face a shortage of forage and rising costs due to poor grass growth this summer and low-quality hay and straw, due to this year dry conditions. This has resulted in many farmers using winter feed early this year and are now buying extra or selling animals to cope. Emergency grants are available to support livestock farmers most in need. Temporary rule changes are also being requested to allow early cutting or grazing of forage under agri-environment schemes. Concerns remain heading into the winter on feed availability for livestock.

There are currently 465 hands off flow restrictions in force on abstraction licences, where river flows remain low. The number of hands-off flow restrictions will change at the start of November when summer licences expire and winter refill licences come into play. There are concerns about water availability for next year especially if we have a dry autumn and winter. This will affect the ability for farmers to replenish irrigation reservoirs, especially if groundwater and river flows remain low. We will be issuing a winter irrigation prospects report similar to the spring irrigation prospects to help farmers understand their refill potential.

We continue to engage and support the agriculture sector into the autumn and winter season. We have received 30 flexible abstraction requests to date. These help abstractors manage with the exceptionally dry weather. We are progressing 12 Local Resources Option screening studies to help improve farmers long term water resources resilience.

Hemlock poisoning has been reported in livestock in Wales this summer. Dry weather and exposed ditches increase the risk of animals foraging toxic plants like Hemlock. We advise that farmers should stay alert to this. We continue to proactively update our drought weather communications, detailing the current drought situation, support available to help farmers improve access to water and preparation for this winter. Our Environment Agency dry weather farming blog and Water Hub webpage contains further information.

6. Energy

There are no known issues with the energy sector.

7. Environment

There was a small increase in the numbers of confirmed environmental incidents caused by drought and dry weather this week; this continues the recent trend in response to the cooler, wetter weather for September. Total numbers for 2025 are now at 275 incidents.

Numbers of confirmed (category 1 to 3) abstraction or low flow incidents remain similar to corresponding counts from 2018 and 2020, and well below 2022 figures. Numbers of estimated and confirmed (category 1 to 3) abstraction or low flow incidents have continued the recent, more steady trend, with only three new reports this week.

The confirmed numbers of fish mortality incidents caused by drought and dry weather remain below corresponding counts from previous years. The increase in the number of estimated and confirmed (category 1 to 3) incidents with fish mortality remains gradual with 11 reported incidents over the last week. The need for fish rescues by Environment Agency Fisheries teams has reduced but monitoring of sites continues.

There have been 86 days of Severn Regulation this year. Given increases to river flows at Bewdley, further support from regulation releases to maintain the minimum prescribed flow is not anticipated.

The Environment Agency has applied for 5 drought orders to protect the environment:

• 2 for Holme Styes reservoir (granted 28 July and 3 September)
• one for Elslack reservoir (submitted on 26 June)
• one for Winterburn reservoir (submitted on 7 August)
• one for Belmont reservoir (submitted on 15 August)

The Elsack, Winterburn and Belmont applications have been withdrawn as recent rainfall has improved the situation.

8. Navigation

The gradually improving water resources situation for the Canal & River Trust network has seen further canals reopened recently, with key lock flights on the Oxford and Grand Union Canals now available for cruising, although with restricted opening hours to continue to conserve water resources where possible. Many of the Trust’s reservoirs have failed to show appreciable refill in recent weeks, and so unfortunately some canal closures are still in place across parts of the Trusts 2,000 mile network, although this is a much-improved picture overall compared with the summer situation. The Trust continues to monitor the situation and will reopen further canals as water levels improve. The latest closures and restrictions are listed on the Canal & River Trust website.

9. Weather forecast

Dry conditions are expected to continue until the weekend, when a band of rainfall will move slowly cross England, bringing rainfall to many on Sunday. Further unsettled weather is likely to follow into next week.

10. Drought readiness actions

In response to the drought and dry weather, the Environment Agency continues to act by:

• operating our Gold command structure for our national incident response
• planning for potential continuation of dry weather into winter and spring using the latest drought prospects information from water companies and other sectors
• coordinating closely with water companies to implement statutory drought plans, taking necessary action to safeguard public water supplies
• activating drought plans for those Environment Agency Areas in drought and PDW status
• enhancing abstraction licence compliance checks and issuing hands off flow or level restrictions and warnings to some abstractors in areas experiencing low flows
• monitoring, preparing and responding to incidents caused by low river flows, particularly in those Environment Agency Areas in drought status
• preparing dry weather advice to fishery operators to help protect their waters
• hosting regular national drought meetings

The next National Drought Group meeting is scheduled for 30 October.

11. Contact us

Contact drought.national@environment-agency.gov.uk if you have questions about this report.