Research and analysis

Executive summary and acknowledgements: Drought prospects for spring 2026

Published 14 November 2025

Applies to England

Executive summary 

Will there be a drought next year? Unless we have average rainfall or more this winter, some parts of the country will be in drought next year. The severity of the drought will be dictated by the amount and location of rainfall over the winter. We have used different rainfall scenarios throughout the winter to help us understand the possibility of drought next year. The current Met Office long-term forecast for the UK shows a 30% likelihood of drier conditions from November to January. This is a warning that we must all act now.  

Many areas in England would almost be back to ‘normal’ status with the average amount of rainfall over winter, that is 100% of long-term average (LTA) or more. However, the area around Cambridge and Bedford could be more vulnerable due to the groundwater levels not fully recovering.  

Under an 80% of LTA rainfall scenario, there would be drought conditions from in spring that stretch across the country from Wessex to Yorkshire.  This would be similar to conditions experienced this year. 

Under a 60% of LTA rainfall scenario, all of England would be in drought at the start of spring.  

This drought prospects report describes the potential challenges we may face in spring next year if the drought and dry weather continue. It sets out the actions that we all need to take over the winter to ensure that we are in the best position ready for the summer when resources are usually most stretched. We will publish a further prospects report in spring 2026 that will cover the latest position, risks and actions needed for summer and autumn next year.  

As we write this in autumn 2025, we find many parts of England are still in drought or in prolonged dry weather status. But how has this happened, especially when it seems to have been raining a lot recently? We easily remember the most recent weather, but February was when the weather turned dry for many parts of England, especially in northern England. The spring was very dry, in fact the driest spring since 1893. The summer was the hottest on record with four heatwaves. There were some wet weekends, which were a relief. But these weren’t going to make up for the dry spring.  

The drought affected public water supplies, farmers, the environment and boaters. If it wasn’t for the soggy September with 149% of LTA rainfall, it would have been a difficult start to the autumn. We have now started to see some improvements. Further rain in October has helped, but as we move into November, reservoir levels and some groundwater levels are low.  

At the time of writing, the current drought is far from over, and everyone must prepare for a dry winter if we are to reduce the risk of further issues next year.  

All sectors and government should prepare for the drought continuing or intensifying next year. They will work together to manage the drought by: 

• communicating what is happening  

• carrying out their own specific actions  

• rapidly implementing lessons learned from this year, ready for spring 2026  

They will also support one another as they have during 2025 through the National Drought Group.  

The public had a big role to play through 2025 by using water wisely. We thank everyone who has done their bit to save water this year. Together all sectors should continue to support people and businesses to help save water. 

Actions planned over the winter to the manage the risk of drought include: 

• taking early action – water companies will apply early for drought permits to help them refill their reservoirs or resting sources, continue to reduce leakage as a priority, and be ready for cold snaps that could increase leakage 

• Environment Agency will review its assets and make sure there is resilience in its transfer schemes and gauging stations – they will help abstractors but will also be a regulator and take quick action against those breaking the law 

• Canal & River Trust will speed up its works on its network during the winter and engage boaters on risks of canal closures next year 

• farmers will assess how much water they have access to, and ensure they have enough water where they know their crops are susceptible to dry weather and drought – this involves working together to share water  

• angling clubs and groups will assess the risks for next year and look to buy aerators –they will continue to talk to anglers so they understand what they can do 

We also need to continue to understand how the climate is changing and affecting our water resources so we can better plan for droughts in the future. Research into future droughts needs to start now. We are calling on government and research councils to undertake long-term research into future droughts. 

For more information on how drought it managed, see Drought: How it is managed in England.

Acknowledgements

List of all organisations that have contributed.  

• Angling Trust 

• Canal & River Trust 

• Consumer Council for Water 

• Energy UK  

• Forestry Commission 

• Leisure sector  

• Met Office 

• National Farmers Union  

• Natural England 

• National Trust 

• Water companies in England 

• Waterwise 

• Wild Trout Trust 

• UK Irrigation Association