Research and analysis

Appendix A - Likelihood of drought in 2026: Drought prospects for spring 2026

Published 14 November 2025

Applies to England

In this section, we look at the drought prospects in terms of the likelihood of 3 percentage of long-term average (LTA) rainfall scenarios occurring and the potential impact these scenarios will have on river flows and groundwater. In later sections of the prospects report, we look at the impacts on each sector of these rainfall scenarios.  

Throughout this report we refer to the 3 LTA rainfall scenarios cover the period October 2025 to March 2026. These are: 

• 100% LTA rainfall – this, or more rainfall, has a 28% to 42% probability of occurring 

• 80% LTA rainfall – this, or less rainfall, has 18% to 29% probability of occurring 

• 60% LTA rainfall – this, or less rainfall, has 2% to 6% probability of occurring 

The probabilities of these rainfall scenarios occurring vary because there are regional differences in rainfall distributions across the country.  

Autumn and winter outlook  

Rainfall 

The Met Office has recently published its latest 3 month outlook for the UK for the period November 2025 to January 2026. The headline message from this report is that the chance of a dry 3-month period for the UK as a whole is higher than normal. The report also says the chances of a mild or a cold 3-month period are balanced. This means that the chance of a cold period is greater than it has been in recent years which have tended to be mild. 

The Met Office (and other forecasting centres across the globe), are forecasting an increased chance of La Niña conditions over the next few months. La Niña is the name given to the periodic cooling of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which impacts weather and climate. Recent research indicates it is often associated with below average winter rainfall across southern England.  

Our own assessment of previous La Niña events supports this and indicates an increased chance of below average rainfall across parts of southern and eastern England. This was based upon an analysis of historical events and is shown in table 2. 

Table 2 also shows an increased chance of 80% LTA rainfall occurring in La Niña years, particularly in the north east (26%), east (30% chance) and south-east England (38% chance). It also shows a lower chance of 100% LTA rainfall or more during the October to March period, in north east, central, east, south-east and south-west England.  

Table 2: The chance of each rainfall scenario in the October to March period occurring by geo regions of England for all historical years analysed (since 1871) and for sub sampled La Niña years since 1950.  

Region	60% LTA rainfall or lower all years	60% LTA rainfall or lower in La Niña years	80% LTA rainfall or lower in all years	80% LTA rainfall or lower in La Niña years	100% LTA rainfall or higher all years	100% LTA rainfall or higher in La Niña years
North-west	4%	2%	24%	18%	28%	30%
North-east	2%	Never occurred	18%	26%	37%	30%
Central	2%	2%	21%	22%	36%	22%
East	4%	2%	20%	30%	42%	34%
South-east	6%	6%	29%	38%	32%	22%
South-west	4%	2%	26%	26%	32%	18%

River flows and groundwater 

Each month the Environment Agency publishes river flow and groundwater projections based upon a range of LTA rainfall scenarios and climate ensembles. Our projections until March 2026 indicate that: 

• above 100% LTA rainfall is needed across England to restore river flows to normal levels at most sites (figure 16) 

• above 120% LTA rainfall is needed for groundwater levels in chalk aquifers to return to normal levels at most sites.  

However, our assessment of the likelihood of different river flow and groundwater levels occurring by March 2026 shows that: 

• an increased chance of notably or exceptionally low river flows in east and central England  

• an increased chance of groundwater levels being this low in east, central and north-east England  

This chance increases when just considering La Niña years for groundwater levels, as shown in table 3.  

Table 3: Change in the probability of groundwater levels occurring by the end of March 2026 in La Niña years  

Notably high or higher	Above normal	Normal	Below normal	Notably low or lower
5% chance of notably or exceptionally high levels	5% chance of above normal levels	34% chance of normal levels	24% chance of below normal levels	32% chance of notably or exceptionally low levels
× 0.4 normal chance	× 0.3 normal chance	× 0.8 normal chance	× 1.6 normal chance	× 2.4 normal chance

This chance also increases when just considering La Niña years for river flows, as shown in table 4.  

Table 4: Change in the probability of river flows occurring up to the end of March 2026 in La Niña years  

Notably high or higher	Above normal	Normal	Below normal	Notably low or lower
5% chance of notably or exceptionally high levels	7% chance of above normal levels	43% chance of normal levels	23% chance of below normal levels	22% chance of notably or exceptionally low levels
× 0.4 normal chance	× 0.5 normal chance	× 1 normal chance	× 1.5 normal chance	× 1.7 normal chance

Figure 16: Projected river flows up until the end of March 2026 with 100% LTA rainfall (projected from November)

Rainfall greater than 100% of the long term average has occurred in 26% to 43% of years in the historic record, and under this scenario the majority of sites are projected to be normal, although a handful of sites in east and south east England are projected to be below normal or lower by the end of March.

Figure 17: Projected groundwater levels at the end of March 2026 with 100% LTA rainfall (projected from November)

Rainfall greater than 100% of the long term average has occurred in 26% to 43% of years in the historic record, and under this scenario most sites are projected to be normal for the time of year, with some sites in chalk aquifers likely to be below normal or lower by the end of March.  

Figure 18: Projected river flows up to the end of March 2026 with 80% LTA rainfall (projected from November)

Rainfall less than 80% of the long term average has occurred in 21% to 29% of years in the historic record, and under this scenario most sites are projected to be below normal or lower, with notably and exceptionally low sites in east England by the end of March.  

Figure 19: Projected groundwater at the end of March 2026 with 80% LTA rainfall (projected from November)

Rainfall less than 80% of the long term average has occurred in 21% to 29% of years in the historic record, and under this scenario all sites are projected to be normal or lower, with most sites notably low or lower, particularly in chalk aquifers by the end of March.  

Figure 20: Projected river flows up to end the March 2026 with 60% LTA rainfall (projected from November)

Rainfall less than 60% of the long-term average has occurred in 0% to 7% of years in the historic record, and under this scenario most sites are projected to be exceptionally low for the time of year, with a handful of below normal or normal sites in the south east by the end of March. 

Figure 21: Projected groundwater at the end of March 2026 with 60% LTA rainfall (projected from November)

Rainfall less than 60% of the long-term average has occurred in 0% to 7% of years in the historic record, and under this scenario all except one site is projected to be below normal or lower, with most notably or exceptionally low by the end of March.