Research and analysis

8. Forestry - drought risks, impacts and actions: Drought prospects for spring 2026

Published 14 November 2025

Applies to England

This year saw poor seed germination, stunted growth and increased mortality of trees. There was the widespread need for replanting dead saplings.  

8.1 Prospects for next year 

A dry winter may benefit nursery operations. This is because prolonged wet weather tends to hinder lifting, grading, and despatch operations. There may be the potential for extended forest operations due to dry ground enabling machinery to cope.  

However, a dry autumn and winter risks the poor establishment of young trees. Low water levels would affect the ability to abstract water at tree nurseries. A dry spring would lead to tree mortality if the drought continued. Dry conditions would mean an increased risk of wildfires due to the dry understorey and leaf litter.  

8.2 Actions by the Forestry Commission to reduce the impacts of a dry winter and drought in spring 2026 

The Forestry Commission plans several actions, and these are as follows. 

Operations

For its operations, it plans to: 

• plant earlier in winter to improve the establishment of tree roots  

• manage vegetation to retain moisture and cool soil 

• use mulching for small new planting and restocking sites to reduce evaporation 

• in the long term, it plans to diversify the species at its sites and underplant with more drought-tolerant species 

• consider implementing a shift from felling trees to thinning or continuous cover forestry to reduce the competition for water in mature trees 

• consider planning fire breaks and rides to mitigate wildfire risk 

Policy and guidance

For its policy and guidance, it plans to:  

• considering giving advice in woodland planning guides about planting timing and stock type 

• encourage applications for woodland creation by March 2026 

• include drought resilience measures in England Woodland Creation Offer agreements 

Nursery sector

For its nursery sector preparations, it plans to: 

• sow with weather patterns in mind 

• apply for increased abstraction allowances 

• invest in water storage and efficient irrigation systems 

Research and evidence

For its research and evidence gathering, it plans to: 

• assess drought impacts through a rapid evidence review  

• explore the benefits of trained forest planners and managers 

• investigate European forestry practices for drought resilience 

• review the survival data from various UK regions and stock types