Research and analysis

5. Environment - drought risks, impacts and actions: Drought prospects for spring 2026

Published 14 November 2025

Applies to England

This section considers the impact of the long-term average (LTA) rainfall scenarios on the environment. There are contributions from the Environment Agency, the Angling Trust, the National Trust, Natural England and the Forestry commission. 

The consequences of the drought this year will continue in all rainfall scenarios because of the time it takes for the environment to recover after drought. The most affected environments will be freshwater species in both rain-fed and groundwater-fed rivers, and wetland habitats. Some of the impacts of this drought may only start to become clearer in summer 2026. 

5.1 Summary of environmental impacts  

There are a wide variety of impacts resulting from lower than average rainfall. This section sets out some of them. 

Habitats (water dependant species and plants)  

Below average rainfall may result in: 

• the upper reaches of chalk streams being dry for longer and the impacts also extending further downstream  

• reduced augmentation (the water released from reservoirs to support river flows) of downstream habitats due to low levels in supplying reservoirs – this may result in the need for the Environment Agency to apply for drought orders 

• an increased risk of wildfires due to a lack of moisture in soils and vegetation, especially at heathland sites, even over the autumn and winter 

Wetland species 

Below average rainfall is likely to reduce the breeding success of wetland birds due to dry ponds and lakes. The breeding success of amphibians such as the crested newt and the natterjack toad would be reduced if their breeding sites are dry.  

Trees 

There are significant risks to tree planting over the winter and spring, although water companies can provide exemptions from TUBs for urban tree planting. 

The National Trust reports that this year has seen established and ancient trees severely stressed. Limb drop has been recorded at 8 properties and further tree mortality would be expected if dry conditions continued​. Continued drought would affect mature trees, cause early leaf loss and an increased risk of fungal disease. ​ 

Salmon migration 

In autumn, salmon require higher flows to migrate upstream to spawning grounds and to overcome both natural and artificial barriers. The Angling Trust reports that observed salmon and sea trout migration to their spawning grounds has been delayed by the low flows. Only mature fish have been observed migrating.  

The inadequate flows may result in salmon remaining in lower river sections and estuaries, increasing their vulnerability to poor condition, predation and illegal exploitation. The concentrations of fish in pre-spawning condition will increase the risk of disease. Spawning may then be restricted to sub-optimal habitats with negative consequences for egg and fry survival. 

Juvenile salmon (smolts) depend on increased spring flows to begin their downstream migration to the sea, where they feed and mature. If the low river flows continue into the spring and early summer, the salmon smolt migration will be impacted. Any in-river obstructions that have not been flushed away with higher flows will further delay their migration.  

Eel migration 

Adult eels migrate downstream in autumn to reach their spawning grounds in the Sargasso Sea and require higher river flows to do so. Low flows and barriers in rivers may inhibit their migration. 

In spring and summer, juvenile eels (elvers) return to natal rivers and migrate upstream to find suitable habitats. While typically unaffected by low flows, extreme conditions may make some artificial barriers impassable leading to increased predation and mortality. 

River and sea lamprey  

The continued low river flows may not provide the right triggers for river and sea lamprey to migrate upstream. This may lead to increased spawning of these fish in sub-optimal habitats and lower juvenile survival. 

Other fish 

Below average rainfall this autumn and winter may lead to: 

• a decrease in the populations of protected species (such as salmon and the freshwater pearl mussel) and an increase in conditions which support invasive non-native species 

• no flushing of sediment and aquatic plants due to the lack of high river flows – this affects fish spawning grounds and migration of fish downstream 

• later spawning by adult brown trout in chalk rivers, as reported by the Wild Trout Trust – this means the subsequent generation of fish are likely to have a shorter growing season before reduced flows return in the spring and summer 

• risks to fish stocks from water temperature – a repeat of prolonged warm or hot weather, combined with low river flows and still water, will impact fish populations and lead to increased numbers of incidents including fish kills 

• a reduction in the size and frequency of spill events (the unintentional release of water from a reservoir) in regulated rivers – this could reduce periods of high flow required by migrating fish and will have potentially negative implications for downstream habitats and ecological communities  

5.2 100% long-term average rainfall scenario  

Parts of the environment will still suffer from residual effects of the drought in 2026, as the environment takes a long time to recover from a drought.  

In this scenario, the rainfall over the autumn and winter will not mitigate continued environmental impacts from the dry weather this year in all parts of the country. This is not solely because river flows may not return fully to normal levels. It is also because the low flows and warm temperatures experienced in summer and autumn of 2025 will cause knock-on environmental impacts in the winter and spring.  

For example, the poor breeding season for a species this year, such as the Natterjack toad, will mean fewer adults in future years to reproduce. However, average rainfall this winter will allow wetlands and rivers to recover which will be beneficial in general for species dependent on these habitats.  

5.3 60% and 80% long-term average rainfall scenario 

The low river flows resulting from below average rainfall in these scenarios is likely to cause significant pressure on the environment. The dry winter would have serious environmental impacts, which would be long lasting.  

With this level of damage, any recovery would be slow and could last significantly beyond 2026. There could be potential for permanent change as the resilience of some habitats and species is further challenged. 

We would expect to see significant impacts on freshwater species and habitats, including reduced breeding success of wetland birds and amphibians. Any impacts on a breeding species will be seen in the population for years to come meaning a reduced number of the species able to reproduce. More headwater reaches would be at risk of becoming dry and fragmented, leading to increased pressure on the environment. 

We would expect to see higher and earlier than normal numbers of environmental incidents next year, impacting all species of flora and fauna. It is likely we would see substantial negative effects on freshwater species in summer and autumn 2026, and beyond.  

Low average rainfall over the winter, followed by a hot and dry spring and summer, could mean a significantly increased risk of wildfires.  

5.4 Actions to reduce the impacts of a dry winter and drought in spring 2026 on the environment 

Environment Agency 

We plan to continue drought monitoring across the country to provide a national picture of ecological impacts and recovery and carry out enhanced ecological monitoring in the average rainfall scenarios. For example, we will continue enhanced ecological monitoring in East Anglia, where we have already seen significant low flows and drying of rivers. This is particularly the case for chalk catchments, where greater than 100% LTA rainfall is required to enable recovery.  

We will also consider whether enhanced monitoring would be useful in other areas whilst balancing the potential additional ecological stress it may cause. Some monitoring sites are starting to show drought impacts to ecological communities. The continuation of the low flows with little recovery over winter will leave them considerably more vulnerable to further impacts in summer 2026.  

We will continue to:  

• work with water companies where they are considering applying for drought permits and drought orders to ensure they conduct appropriate monitoring, assessment and mitigation of the environment  

• initiate fish rescue operations in susceptible river reaches earlier than usual if low rainfall persists  

• provide advice and guidance to clubs and fishery managers on protecting aquatic environments – financial support has also been made available to help with the purchasing of essential equipment such as aerators and other mitigation tools 

• collaborate with fisheries staff, clubs and fishery owners which is essential to mitigate the impacts of drought and protect aquatic ecosystems  

• review our response to dry weather incidents in 2025 to share good practice (incident response and communications) and to improve our understanding on the management and presentation of risks 

The Angling Trust 

The Trust will communicate with angling groups and clubs about the importance of being prepared for a dry spring. This will be done in partnership with the Environment Agency and others.  

This covers the importance of correct fish handling, monitoring. This also covers the importance of either having aeration equipment available or working with the Environment Agency to ensure they are aware of the situation as it develops. 

The Trust will continue to work with the Environment Agency Fisheries teams and the Institute of Fisheries management in supporting, educating and training the angling community in preparing for these situations. This work started 2 years ago and £400,000 of rod licence income has been invested in aeration equipment, monitors and training sessions which the Trust believes has saved thousands of fish.  

These projects will continue to provide longer-term resilience. 

The National Trust 

The National Trust will continue to use the Environment Agency’s drought reporting to take action, including: 

• performing checks for leaky loos and running taps at its properties 

• prioritising irrigation for plant collections under cover  

• messaging its customers of cottages and campsites 

• acting to reduce wildfires 

The National Trust’s plan to plant new trees for climate mitigation and adaptation has been impacted. The National Trust now advises its sites to plant very early in the winter to try and offset any issues of a potentially dry spring and summer, and to consider natural colonisation as the default option. 

The National Trust plans to take the following actions to protect the environment:  

• implement smart meters at its sites to help manage water use – in phase 1 it plans to install 130 meters at its largest consuming sites 

• further develop its strategy to move more gardens away from mains water 

• further develop trials to retrofit rainwater harvesting and grey water recycling through water company partnership 

• do more natural flood management and slow flow interventions to provide both flood and drought resilience 

• cut fire breaks in surrounding purple moor grass to protect tree planting from wild fire​ 

Natural England 

Natural England will work with the Environment Agency, water companies and government to make sure that water company drought plans and water resources management plans are developed with sufficient protection for the natural environment.  

Natural England plans to:  

• gather evidence to demonstrate the environmental impacts of drought, as well as the environmental response to any return to wetter conditions 

• make sure that actions proposed or taken by the Environment Agency, water companies or others are planned and carried out with the needs of the environment in mind, particularly for protected sites  

• take action at their National Nature Reserve reserves to monitor and mitigate any impacts from below average rainfall