Research and analysis

3. Public water supply – drought risks, impacts and actions: Drought prospects for spring 2026

Published 14 November 2025

Applies to England

3.1 Background 

This section mainly considers the drought risks and actions of the 17 water companies. Some information is provided on the new appointments and variations companies in the section on mitigation. 

We asked water companies to forecast the impact on their water supplies and the mitigating actions they would take if we received 100%, 80% and 60% of LTA rainfall over the autumn and winter.  

Water companies report their drought response using operational drought response levels: 

• drought level 1 – during prolonged dry weather  

• drought level 2 – during drought 

• drought level 3 – during drought but at later stages will enter severe drought  

Water company operations during normal conditions are referred to as business as usual and are not covered by their statutory drought plans.  

Water companies produce statutory water company drought plans to show how they will manage their supplies in a drought. Their drought plans contain drought triggers that identify when the company should prepare and take actions during a drought. Water company drought management actions will reduce demand and maintain or increase supply to help conserve their water supplies during a drought.  

For example, water companies’ actions at drought level 1 are likely to include: 

• water efficiency communications  

• enhanced leakage management  

• optimising sources  

• reducing outages  

If the drought continues, water companies are likely to implement temporary use bans (TUBs, also commonly known as hosepipe bans). They are likely to apply for drought permits and orders at drought level 2 which, if granted, allow them to take more water from the environment. Water companies are likely to apply for non-essential use drought orders at drought level 3. 

All actions implemented at each drought level by the companies would continue as the drought escalates. The actions help companies manage their resources during a drought and reduce the likelihood of entering drought response level 4 (during severe drought). Level 4 actions are more drastic actions taken to maintain water in supply.  

We expect water companies to implement TUBs during the early stages of drought. TUBs cover restrictions on using a hosepipe for non-essential activities like watering gardens, filling paddling pools or washing cars, and help to reduce household demand for water. In the LTA rainfall scenarios, we look at whether water companies are considering implementing TUBs.  

The water companies which implemented a TUB in all or part of their water supply areas from July this summer are:  

• Yorkshire Water  

• South East Water (Kent and Sussex)  

• Southern Water (Isle of Wight and Southampton West area)  

• Thames Water (Swindon and Oxfordshire supply)  

Southern Water removed its TUB restrictions on 31 October 2025.  

During the dry weather and drought this year, all water companies except Portsmouth Water activated their drought plans. There are 14 water companies still in drought or prolonged dry weather status as of November 2025.  

These companies will be following the drought management actions in their statutory drought plans. These actions are set out in the section ‘Actions by water companies to reduce the impacts of a dry winter and drought in spring 2026’ in this report. This means that even under the 100% LTA rainfall scenario, some water companies will already be taking actions in line with their drought level at the beginning of autumn and winter. 

3.2 100% long-term average rainfall scenario 

In this scenario, most water companies expect good recovery over the autumn and winter from the dry weather this summer. They expect to remain in or return to a normal water resources position by the end of March 2026.  

However, there are a few water supply areas of Anglian Water and South West Water that will remain in or move into drought level 1 (see figure 5). South East Water has reported that it’s Ardingly reservoir will not fully recover even under the 100% LTA rainfall scenario, unless the company takes further action through the winter. This reservoir will therefore be vulnerable to another dry spring and summer.  

Figure 5: Water company projected drought plan response level, by water company supply area at the end of March 2026 under the 100% LTA rainfall scenario

Anglian Water has stated that two supply areas will not have fully recovered by the end of March 2026. Its North East water supply areas and Ruthamford supply area will remain in drought level 1. The company estimates it would need up to 120% LTA rainfall to recover to normal conditions by end of March. The company forecasts there is no likelihood of TUBs to customers over winter, but the company may need to implement them in early spring across these areas. The company will keep its customers informed through the winter and spring.   

South West Water’s Cornwall supply area is currently in normal conditions. The company forecasts this area will move into drought level 1 in March 2026, unless it receives between 130% to 140% of the LTA rainfall to remain in normal conditions. This is due to the current low water levels in its Colliford reservoir which will take substantial time to refill. There would be a risk of a drought for Cornwall should there be a dry and hot spring and summer like that experienced in 2022.  

3.3 80% long-term average rainfall scenario 

In this scenario, just over half of the water companies expect to remain in or return to normal conditions by the end of March 2026. The remaining water companies will still be managing the drought in all or part of their water supply areas (see figure 6). Many more companies will be at risk of moving into drought level 1 and 2 in early spring if the dry weather continues. We would expect a similar picture to the start of next spring to that of spring of 2025.  

Figure 6: Water company projected drought plan response level by water company supply area at the end of March 2026, under the 80% LTA rainfall scenario

In this scenario, much of Anglian Water’s supply areas would remain in or move to drought level 1, with its Ruthamford supply area in central England in drought level 2. Other water company supply areas which are mostly in the midlands, south-west and south-east would remain in or move to drought level 1 by the end of March 2026.  

Drought risk remains for Yorkshire Water over winter, but the company forecasts it will start to experience recovery from December and expects to return to normal conditions by March. However, we believe Yorkshire Water’s resources would not fully recover and that the company is at a higher risk of returning into drought if the dry weather continues through the spring.  

Water companies that currently have TUBs in place will continue to monitor the situation and only remove the TUB when they recover to normal conditions.  

Yorkshire Water will continue to review its situation. Thames Water will continue to monitor the situation, but the company expects TUBs will be removed during the winter. South East Water will not remove TUBs in its Sussex area until Ardingly reservoir has returned to a normal level.  

3.4 60% long-term average rainfall scenario 

In this scenario with 60% LTA rainfall, most water companies forecast they will be in drought level 1, 2 or 3 in all or part of their supply areas by the end of March 2026 (see figure 7). This scenario demonstrates how many companies would be close to remaining in drought, which are forecasting a return to normal conditions in the 80% scenario. Under the 60% scenario, most companies would not be able to refill reservoirs and groundwater levels would be low across the country due to poor recharge over autumn and winter. 

It should be stressed this scenario has a very low likelihood of happening across the entire country.  

Figure 7: Water company projected drought plan response level by water company supply area level at the end of March 2026, under 60% LTA rainfall scenario

Most water companies will be in drought in all or parts of their supply areas. Parts of Yorkshire Water, Anglian Water and South East Water would be in drought level 3 in March and therefore water supplies would be at significant risk if there was to be a dry summer.  

Under this scenario, companies which have already implemented TUBs will keep them in place, and several other companies may need to implement TUBs in March or earlier. This scenario would increase the likelihood of at least one company maybe entering level 4 drought response by the end of the summer or early autumn (subject to a dry spring and a hot summer).  

3.5 Actions by water companies to reduce the impacts of a dry winter and drought in spring 2026 

We expect water companies to take early and precautionary action to improve their supply position over the winter and to protect the environment.  

If water companies take early and proactive measures, they will be supported by government and its regulators. We will also support increased communications with the public and businesses, so everyone understands the risks for next spring and summer. Water companies should engage early and openly with regulators to discuss the risks and any actions they are taking.  

Water company drought plans include the drought management actions they plan to take and at which drought response level the actions will take place. These are available to view on each water company’s website.  

It is important that water companies carry out further actions now, rather than relying on the expectation that the rain will return as normal. Delaying actions will increase risks to public water supplies. We expect those water companies with supply areas at risk under the 80% LTA scenario to prepare and implement their drought management actions in a timely manner. For example, water companies that have identified the potential need for drought permits or orders should not delay any further work required to be application ready.  

Water companies that are on the borderline of recovery in 80% and 60% LTA rainfall should not delay action. For example, Yorkshire Water says it will be in normal conditions under the 80% LTA rainfall scenario but will be at Level 3 under 60% LTA rainfall scenario.  

The water companies will be taking the following actions under each of the LTA rainfall scenarios in line with their drought plans. We have also provided a summary of the actions we expect water companies to take. 

Engaging with water company customers 

We expect to see enhanced winter communication campaigns to maintain awareness of the drought risk and to promote efficient water use. We would also like to see companies launching innovative schemes to help customers save water. For example, Bristol Water (part of South West Water) has just launched an offer of a free water butt to its customers. This was popular with its customers – within 24 hours all the water butts were allocated.  

Most water companies are planning communication campaigns this winter to promote water efficiency. The South West Water group of water companies (including Bristol Water, SES Water and Bournemouth Water) is running a winter demand reduction campaign ‘Every Drop Counts – Come Rain or Shine’. This initiative highlights the importance of saving water throughout the year including in winter. Some companies plan to link messages on water saving to customer bills and Affinity Water is planning a ‘Water save tariff trial’ with its demand reduction communications.  

These campaigns should run across all the rainfall scenarios. However, we would expect further enhanced communications through January to March, should the rainfall be tracking the 80% and 60% scenarios.  

Leakage management 

Over the summer many companies engaged customers with work on leakage, showing the companies are doing their part to save water. This effort needs to continue through the winter across all rainfall scenarios.  

Water companies should: 

• plan to further increase leakage detection and management over the level of activity they carry out during normal conditions 

• communicate the work they are doing with their customers 

• prepare for freeze-thaw events 

Already we see companies such as United Utilities running a ‘Report a Leak’ campaign and providing feedback to customers on cutting the time it takes to fix leaks.  

Water companies need to consider actions under the 80% and 60% LTA scenarios and how they would expand their work reducing leakage.  

Temporary use bans  

For those companies with TUBs (also known as hosepipe bans) currently in place, the Environment Agency expects them to remain until the water resources position has returned to normal. Under the 100% LTA scenario, it is anticipated that only South East Water would have to keep TUBs on through to March. There is a small risk that Anglian Water may need to consider introducing a TUB in one or more of its supply areas by the end of March.  

Under the 80% LTA scenario, there is greater likelihood of TUBs being in place by the end of March 2026. Veolia Water Projects, parts of South West Water, parts of Thames Water, parts of South East Water and Anglian Water may all require restrictions. Figure 8 shows the likelihood of TUBs by the end of March in this scenario.  

Figure 8: Likelihood of TUBs by end of March 2026 under the 80% LTA scenario

Under a 60% LTA rainfall scenario, the following companies have indicated they may require a TUB by the end of March 2026:  

• Anglian Water  

• Affinity Water 

• Bristol Water  

• Portsmouth Water  

• SES Water 

• South East Water  

• Thames Water 

• Veolia Water Projects  

• Yorkshire Water  

• parts of South West Water and part of Southern Water   

Figure 9: Likelihood of TUBs by end of March under the 60% LTA scenario

We expect water companies to: 

• continue to keep customers updated with the position of possible TUBs through the winter and provide as much help and support as possible – this includes activities such as providing free water butts 

• be ready to implement TUBs before the end of March, depending on rainfall  

• continue to ensure they have planned the communications about TUBs  

Water companies in the same geographical location should co-ordinate the introduction of TUBs to help people understand the restrictions. 

Increasing water supplies and assessing assets 

Water companies should take action to alter their operations through the winter to optimise their available water supplies by the end of March 2026. This includes water companies changing from operating on a ‘cost minimisation basis’, to a ‘water resources optimisation basis’.  

Water companies should: 

• assess and where possible change operating regimes to preserve resources and consider network configuration improvements to optimise resources  

• review planned outage programmes and resolve any longer-term outages and infrastructure risks  

• review and maintain assets to minimise risks and, where there are critical points in their network, ensure they have sufficient spares and supplies to reduce any disruption or loss of water 

Drought permits and orders 

We would expect water companies to submit their applications for drought permits or orders as soon as possible to support early reservoir refill and rest sources of water. They should act now to ensure they are application ready for any permits and orders they may require in the spring or summer next year.  

Water companies should: 

• submit early drought permit and order applications, even before they may need them so they can take swift action through the winter, as rainfall amounts are uncertain – we encourage companies that have identified the need for drought permits and orders to submit them early

• embed any learning from applications made this year  

• ensure their plans include enough time to prepare their permit or order application, to engage with stakeholders and to allow for hearings  

• engage with possible objectors before submitting applications for drought permits or orders to avoid delays 

Winter drought permits are preferable to summer drought permits as there is usually less impact on the environment.  

New and accelerated options  

We expect companies to identify possible new sources of water and consider accelerating, where possible, the implementation of schemes they are planning. We also expect them to consider what other innovative actions they could take to further protect supplies.  

Water companies should continue to engage with Defra and regulators on new options and schemes that could be brought forward to improve their resilience. This is important if there may be legal, permitting or environmental requirements. 

3.6 Further expectations of water companies 

In addition to these expectations, we expect water companies to consider taking the following actions over this autumn and winter to improve drought resilience.  

Regional groups 

Water companies should explore options for bulk transfers to provide support in drought sensitive areas within their regional groups. Companies should continue to review collaborative opportunities to support agriculture and other sectors to improve resilience for next summer.  

Improve modelling capability and reporting 

We have some uncertainties and concerns with the prospects modelling some water companies have provided due to limited or lacking, detail and evidence. We will continue to work with them to fully understand the risks to supply.  

Some companies have made significant improvements in their modelling capability, but some companies still do not meet our requirements for modelling rainfall scenarios. Where this is the case, we expect them to develop and widen modelling capability in the short term and by the end of March 2026 to align with current drought plan deadlines.  

We require companies to model rainfall scenarios from the current or previous catchment conditions, rather than by sampling historical inflow sequences. This will improve the quality of water company operational projections and provide a consistent baseline. We will support water companies over the coming months to address these technical capability shortfalls. 

Several companies did not provide an assessment of groundwater projections. This is most notable across the sandstone aquifers of central England (Severn Trent Water and South Staffordshire Water) and across the chalk aquifers of southern and eastern England (Essex and Suffolk Water, Southern Water). The lack of robust assessments of groundwater resources is particularly concerning given the elevated drought risks for next year, particularly across eastern England. 

3.7 New Appointments and Variations  

New appointments and variations (NAVs) are limited companies which provide water or sewerage services to customers in a specific geographical area. Most NAVs are supplied by bulk supplies bought from water companies to supply water to their customers. 

NAVs and water companies engage with each other to ensure their drought plans are aligned, and to facilitate the timely implementation of complementary drought measures and actions.  

NAVs expect to promote water saving behaviours during the winter months, on their customer bills, their website and through blogs. Other actions considered by some NAVs include sharing advice on how to protect pipes from freezing and strengthening customer messaging on reducing water usage. Several NAVs mention incorporating lessons learnt from this drought into their new drought plans, which are due for consultation in spring 2026.  

3.8 Actions by others 

The Water Efficiency Campaign is a national behaviour change initiative in England and Wales to encourage more efficient water use by households and businesses. Launching in spring 2026, it will be implemented by an independent delivery body that will lead the campaign and co-ordinate sector-wide engagement. Ofwat continues to work closely with Defra, the Welsh Government, Natural Resources Wales (NRW), the Environment Agency and water companies to finalise the campaign’s governance, strategy and structure. 

The Consumer Council for Water will continue to work with the National Drought Group to help shape a coordinated response to drought. 

Waterwise will continue to publish consistent water efficiency messaging across media, social channels and newsletters as the independent voice for water efficiency. Waterwise also plan to run a series of national campaigns and events including, for example: 

•  the ‘Leaky Loo Challenge’ (ongoing)  

• seasonal blogs  

• a Water Efficiency Forum stakeholder meeting (in March 2026) 

These campaigns aim to raise awareness, encourage water-saving behaviours by all, and connect water use to wildlife protection. Waterwise is also conducting research into public attitudes from TUBs to help with future water efficiency campaigns.