Research and analysis

1. Overview of rainfall scenarios: Drought prospects for spring 2026

Published 14 November 2025

Applies to England

In this section we look at the likely impact of the 3 rainfall scenarios in terms of the drought status for each of the Environment Agency geographic areas. 

1.1 Current water resources situation 

The Environment Agency has 4 stages of drought management:  

• prolonged dry weather 

• drought 

• severe drought  

• recovery 

The current drought status for each Environment Agency Area is shown in figure 1. The areas in drought and prolonged dry weather cover most of England except the north-west, the south-west and a small area of the south-east.  

Recovery from drought and returning to normal conditions can take time. This recovery is fragile and sometimes it is possible for the water resources situation to move back into drought status.

Figure 1. Environment Agency area drought status, 14 November 2025

For a full description of each area, see table 1.

1.2 Future projections 

The impact of the different rainfall scenarios on the drought status of areas in England by March 2026 is set out below. 

100% long-term average (LTA) rainfall scenario 

100% LTA rainfall or more has a 28% to 42% chance of happening.  

Under a 100% LTA rainfall scenario, we would expect the water resources situation to improve over the winter. We would also expect most areas to be in recovery from drought or conditions to be normal as shown in figure 2.  

The exception to this is the Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire area, which is expected to remain in prolonged dry weather. This area has the driest soils, and more than average rainfall is needed to sufficiently replenish rivers and groundwater resources.  

The areas in recovery may be more vulnerable to a dry spring and summer, but most other areas would be in a good position ahead of summer next year.

Figure 2. Projected drought statuses in March with 100% LTA rainfall

For a full description of each area, see table 1.

80% long-term average rainfall scenario 

80% or less LTA rainfall has an 18% to 29% chance of occurring.  

Drought conditions are likely to increase over the winter months under an 80% LTA rainfall scenario. Most of central England and areas from Dorset to Yorkshire would likely be in drought by March. Some of these areas are currently in drought and others would move to drought from their current prolonged dry weather status as shown in Figure 3. We would expect to see a repeat of what has happened this summer with this scenario.  

The south-west, south and south-east of England, and east of East Anglia would be in prolonged dry weather but very vulnerable to drought if the spring starts dry. Some of these areas are currently in normal conditions and others are already in prolonged dry weather. In the north-west of England, the water resources position would likely return to normal. However, it would again be vulnerable to drought quickly developing if the spring and early summer is dry.  

River flows are likely to be low through to March, with most river levels at below normal or notably low. In contrast, some rivers in the south-east of England could be at normal levels. For example, some rivers in the Chilterns are likely to be sustained from higher groundwater levels or are in catchments which have benefitted from the recent rainfall which supports flow.  

We would expect limited groundwater recharge in some areas. This will delay recovery and reduce the support it provides to river baseflows in spring and summer. Many aquifers would be or remain at notably low levels, and some might be exceptionally low for the time of year.

Figure 3: Projected drought status in March with 80% LTA rainfall

For a full description of each area, see table 1.

60% long-term average rainfall scenario 

60% LTA or less rainfall has a 2% to 6% chance of occurring.  

In this scenario, all of England would be in drought conditions by the start of spring. England would be under significant water resources risks in this scenario as shown in figure 4.  

River flows would largely be exceptionally low and most groundwater levels would be at notably or exceptionally low, causing serious concern ahead of summer.

Figure 4: Projected drought status in March with 60% LTA rainfall

For a full description of each area, see table 1.

1.3 Summary of rainfall scenarios 

Table 1 sets out the possible drought status of Environment Agency areas under each rainfall scenario in March 2026.

Table 1: Environment Agency current and projected drought status under the 100%, 80% and 60% LTA rainfall scenarios in March 2026 

Environment Agency Area	Current status (November 2025)	Projected status under 100% LTA scenario in March 2026	Projected status under 80% LTA scenario in March 2026	Projected status under 60% LTA scenario in March 2026
North East	Prolonged dry weather	Normal	Prolonged dry weather	Drought
Yorkshire	Drought	Normal	Drought	Drought
Cumbria and Lancashire	Recovery	Normal	Normal	Drought
Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire	Recovery	Normal	Normal	Drought
West Midlands	Drought	Recovery	Drought	Drought
East Midlands	Drought	Normal	Drought	Drought
Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire	Prolonged dry weather	Recovery	Drought	Drought
East Anglia East - Essex Norfolk and Suffolk	Prolonged dry weather	Recovery	Prolonged dry weather	Drought
East Anglia West - Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire	Prolonged dry weather	Prolonged dry weather	Drought	Drought
Thames (THM)	Prolonged dry weather	Recovery	Drought	Drought
Hertfordshire and North London (HNL)	Normal	Normal	Prolonged dry weather	Drought
Kent, South London and East Sussex (KSL)	Normal	Normal	Prolonged dry weather	Drought
Solent and South Downs (SSD)	Prolonged dry weather	Normal	Prolonged dry weather	Drought
Wessex (WSX)	Prolonged dry weather	Recovery	Drought	Drought
Devon, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly (DCS)	Normal	Normal	Prolonged dry weather	Drought

1.4 Working together

The challenges we may face as a nation if the winter is dry requires a joined-up response through the coming months. All sectors and government will have responsibilities and there is urgency to ensure we are ready for continued drought.  

All sectors and government should work together to show a more active role and be visible in communicating the latest position through a national campaign. Water companies, the Environment Agency, Natural England, Canal & River Trust, angling clubs, wildlife groups, the National Trust and others can use this messaging in more local communications. It is vital that people and businesses know what is happening and how they can help to tackle the drought. 

Together we must learn what went well in 2025 and what needs to be improved. This learning must be fast to ensure we are ready for spring 2026. The Environment Agency will make this happen. 

While each sector has their own actions to complete through the winter, all sectors should support each other – as they have during 2025 through the National Drought Group. Sectors also need to continue to support people and businesses through timely communications to help them play their part in managing their water usage during drought. The public have largely contributed through 2025 by using water wisely. Together, all sectors should continue to help people and businesses help save water. 

Research into future droughts needs to start now, covering: 

• possible new early warning systems using citizen science  

• how we are using water and the changes in the future  

• investigating new options to avoid more severe droughts  

Research into future droughts needs to start now. We call on government and research councils to undertake long-term research into future droughts.