Research and analysis

Communication and dissemination of probabilistic flood forecasts

Explores the potential users and uses of probabilistic flood warnings, looking at the need for and ways of communicating probability and uncertainty in flood forecasts and warnings.

Documents

Communication and dissemination of probabilistic flood forecasts - final report

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Communication and dissemination of probabilistic flood warnings

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Communication and dissemination of probabilistic flood warnings - literature review

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Communication and dissemination of probabilistic flood warnings - literature review of international material

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Detail

When communicating probabilistic warnings, putting the forecast event in context with a recent event can improve people’s understanding of the warning. However, there is only limited research on how the public and professional partners understand probabilistic information related to imminent natural hazards, though some evidence suggests that decision makers make better decisions when presented with probabilistic information related to hazards.