Research and analysis

Analysis on the impact of absconding incident history as a predictor of future absconding

Summary of findings on the relationship between prisoners’ previous absconding incident history and absconding incidents committed during a 2 year period.

Document

Analysis on the impact of absconding incident history as a predictor of future absconding incidents

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Detail

An analysis which assesses the impact of previous absconding incidents (including all absconds, temporary release failures, escapes and attempted escapes) on predicting the likelihood of future absconding incidents for 23,701 prisoners during the 2 years up to 30 May 2014.

To make this assessment, adjustments were made to take account of offender, offence and prison level characteristics including gender, age, ethnicity, the qualifying offence, criminal history and type of prison.