Research and analysis

Additional airport capacity: cost and commercial viability analysis

Cost and commercial viability analysis of the Airports Commission's shortlisted options for additional airport capacity.

Documents

Literature review

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Cost and revenue identification: Gatwick Airport second runway

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Cost and revenue Identification: Heathrow Airport extended northern runway

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Cost and revenue identification: Heathrow Airport north west runway

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Financial modelling input costs

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Funding and financing

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Funding and financing report: Heathrow north west runway scheme scenario update

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Cost and commercial reports: charts and underlying data zip file

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Details

These reports support the cost and commercial viability analysis in the consultation on the Airport Commission’s shortlisted options for additional airport capacity.

PwC’s ‘Literature review’ of funding and financing arrangements considers:

  • risk factors relevant to airport development
  • procurement models in use in the UK beyond the airports sector

Three separate reports for each of the shortlisted options identify costs and revenues associated with the construction and operation of that proposal.

The ‘Financial modelling input costs’ report sets out a summary of the costs and assumptions used as inputs for PwC’s financial modelling.

A further report analyses the financing and funding of each option and an analysis of the potential spread of aeronautical charges required to finance each.

The ‘Cost and commercial reports: charts and underlying data’ zip file accompanies PricewaterhouseCoopers’s (PwC’s) 3 technical documents. Published on 22 January 2015, the zip file features all underlying data for for graphs and charts in these reports. Across PwC’s 3 documents there are 10 sections which contains chart data. For clarity, we have prepared 1 spreadsheet for each of these sections. Chart numbers in the spreadsheets correspond with chart numbers in the respective PwC reports.

Four of the charts in the ‘Funding and financing report’ were identified as showing data other than that referred to in the consultation reports. In these instances, charts in the ‘charts and underlying data’ zip file have been updated in January 2015 to show data based on correct scenarios. Please note that the charts have not been updated in the original report. This update does not affect any of the analysis, figures and commentary elsewhere in the report. The charts in questions are as follows:

  • ‘Chart 16: Gatwick Airport Limited - bond financing uses’ in section 2
  • ‘Chart 36: Heathrow Hub Limited - capital expenditure, operating costs, financing cash flows and taxation’ in section 4
  • ‘Chart 37: Heathrow Hub Limited - cash flows’ in section 4
  • ‘Chart 48: Heathrow Hub Limited - bond financing uses’ in section 4

As of 23 January 2015, there has been a revision to the underlying indexation assumptions for the core capex and asset replacement costs for the:

  • Heathrow north west runway scheme (LHR NWR)
  • Heathrow extended northern runway scheme (LHR ENR)

The cost and commercial viability reports state that these costs were calculated in April to June 2014 prices, but they were in fact calculated in 2013 prices.

To assess the impact of restating these assumptions our advisers have re-run 1 scenario. The ‘LHR NWR assessment of need carbon-capped scenario’ has been re-run with costs revised to the April to June 2014 indexation assumption. The output of this analysis, compared with the original data presented in the ‘Funding and financing’ report, features in a new ‘Scenario update’ spreadsheet. The spreadsheet’s ‘Summary’ shows that the result of revisions is an increase of about 1% in terms of impacts on aeronautical charges and financing required.

The commission is advising consultees of this impact. It will be similar in all the scenarios and sensitivities run for both the LHR NWR and LHR ENR schemes. The commission is not planning to amend the underlying cost and commercial viability reports.

Published 11 November 2014
Last updated 23 January 2015 + show all updates
  1. Added 'Funding and financing report: Heathrow north west runway scheme scenario update'
  2. Added 'Cost and commercial reports: charts and underlying data' zip file.
  3. First published.