Research and analysis

A screening survey of non VAT-registered businesses in Northern Ireland: Executive summary

Published 15 July 2025

Quantitative research with non VAT-registered businesses based in Northern Ireland that trade goods with businesses in Great Britain.

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Research Report 763.

This research was commissioned under the Conservative administration (2010 to 2024), and was conducted by Ipsos (formerly Ipsos MORI) between July and September 2020.

Prepared by Ipsos (Joanna Crossfield, Sally Abernethy, Nick Coleman, Jayesh Navin Shah) for HMRC.

Disclaimer: The views in this report are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect those of HMRC.

1. Executive summary 

The primary aim of this research was to estimate the incidence of non VAT-registered businesses in Northern Ireland that either buy physical goods from Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) or sell physical goods there. Goods movers, those moving goods between their own sites in Northern Ireland and Great Britain, were also included, but are not a core focus. The research also aimed, as far as possible, to understand the key characteristics of these groups, hereby referred to as NI-GB goods traders.  

The findings are based on a quantitative telephone survey, conducted by Ipsos MORI on behalf of HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). In total, we screened 1,477 non VAT-registered businesses based in Northern Ireland for their trading status, identifying 146 NI-GB goods traders (buyers, sellers or movers of physical goods). The main fieldwork took place between 29 July and 29 August 2020, with follow-up calls to clarify some of the results conducted from 1 to 16 September 2020. 

1.1 All NI-GB goods traders 

Overall, we estimate that one in ten non VAT-registered businesses based in Northern Ireland (10%) trade physical goods with Great Britain. Given a specific type of underestimation in our seller statistics, which we explain later in this summary, the 10% estimate is considered a bare minimum estimate for this population. 

On the basis of our screening process, which screened out ineligible VAT-registered businesses from a sample selected from 2 HMRC databases (detailed in section 2.2), we estimate that there is a total population of 70,500 non VAT-registered businesses in Northern Ireland. Therefore, taking into account the survey margin of error, we estimate the subgroup of NI-GB goods traders lies between 5,600 and 8,500 businesses ^{[footnote 1]}.

The profile of NI-GB goods traders differs from all non VAT-registered businesses in Northern Ireland in terms of size, sector and turnover. The most common industry sectors for NI-GB goods traders are retail and wholesale (26% of NI-GB goods traders, against 6% of all non VAT-registered businesses in Northern Ireland), arts and entertainment (18% against 5%) and other service activities (16% against 7%). They are less likely to come from construction (8% against 15%), agriculture (3% against 13%) and the professional, technical and scientific sectors (2% against 12%), which are otherwise the highest-incidence sectors among the population. 

The annual turnover of NI-GB goods traders is somewhat higher than of other non VAT-registered businesses in Northern Ireland. Around a third have a turnover of £60,000 or more (32%, against 10% of all non VAT-registered businesses in Northern Ireland). The median turnover among NI-GB goods traders is between £20,000 and £40,000. They are more likely than other non VAT-registered businesses in Northern Ireland to have employees (25% against 11%). Further, 8 in 10 NI-GB goods traders (82%) are sole traders (with or without employees) rather than partnerships, which is similar in proportion to all non VAT-registered businesses in Northern Ireland (84%). 

As well as trading with Great Britain, 4 in 10 NI-GB goods traders (39%) trade goods with other countries in the EU (outside of the Republic of Ireland) or the rest of the world, so they will need to understand and prepare for any changes affecting these markets too.

1.2 NI-GB goods buyers 

We estimate that 9% of non VAT-registered businesses in Northern Ireland are NI-GB goods buyers and 6% only buy (meaning they do not sell to Great Britain). This translates to an estimated population of 4,900 to 7,800 NI-GB goods buyers, and 2,800 to 5,600 who only buy. 

To further profile NI-GB goods buyers: 

• one in three NI-GB goods buyers (31%) purchase at least fortnightly from Great Britain and a further third do so monthly (35%) 

• over 8 in 10 (86%) say that Northern Ireland is the final destination of the goods they purchase from Great Britain 

• just 2% report not knowing the final destination 

• a fifth (21%) know the route these goods take to reach them  

• the remaining four-fifths do not know this, with more than half (56%) saying a fast parcel operator arranges it and just under a fifth (15%) saying a haulier or agent does so 

The statistics profiling those that only buy are based on a relatively small sample size (89 sampled businesses.) These 89 businesses buy goods from Great Britain but do not sell there. They still include some NI-GB movers.

Therefore, our analysis of this group focuses on broad patterns in the data rather than statistically significant differences. With this in mind, we find that NI-GB goods traders that only buy goods from Great Britain appear to be slightly more likely than the overall NI-GB goods trader group to be in the service activities sector and in health and social care. They are somewhat less likely to be in the retail and wholesale sector or in arts and entertainment. 

1.3 NI-GB goods sellers 

We estimate that 4% of non VAT-registered businesses in Northern Ireland are NI-GB goods sellers, translating to an estimated population of 1,400 to 4,200. However, we expect this to be an underestimate, as our survey may exclude some traders who sell directly to consumers in Great Britain (and do not buy from there). As such, our 4% finding can be considered as a bare minimum estimate for this group. 

Our results profiling sellers are subject to relatively large margins of error, given the very small sample size for this specific group (56 sampled businesses). Therefore, we again focus on broad patterns in the data and not on specific percentages for this group. We find that: 

• NI-GB goods sellers appear to be more concentrated in the retail and wholesale, and arts and entertainment sectors compared to NI-GB goods buyers 

• around half of NI-GB goods sellers appear to sell to Great Britain on a daily or weekly basis and roughly 6 in 10 do so at least fortnightly, making their sales trade with Great Britain more prolific than for buyers 

• in around 9 in 10 cases, Great Britain is the final destination for these sales 

• again, only around a quarter know the route these goods take to reach their destination in Great Britain 

• roughly two-thirds rely on a fast parcel operator to arrange this for them and around one in ten leave it to a haulier or agent

1. The size of our survey sample allows us to apply an overall margin of error of ±2 percentage points to these findings. The ranges applied to this and our other population estimates in this report account for this margin of error. The population estimates are also rounded to the nearest hundred. ↩