Guidance

2024-based population projections: a GAD technical bulletin

The ONS 2024-based population projections indicate how the UK population is likely to change in both size and structure.

• From: Government Actuary's Department
• Published: 21 August 2026

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2024-based population projections: a GAD technical bulletin

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The ONS 2024-based population projections show the UK population peaking at 72.5m in 2054, with growth driven by migration. The population continues to age: the number of over-85s are expected to double by 2049. Assumptions for fertility and migration are lower, whilst life expectancy assumptions remain broadly unchanged from the 2022-based projections. GAD uses the population projections for pension valuations, public service scheme work, National Insurance Fund reviews and fiscal projections.

Published 21 August 2026