GAD modelling supports pandemic preparedness work
GAD worked with UKHSA to test how actuarial modelling can help assess uncertainty and risk in pandemic preparedness.
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The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) worked with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) to explore how uncertainty in vaccine development could affect the economic consequences of pandemic response decisions.
As part of a proof-of-concept project, GAD used actuarial modelling techniques to explore uncertainty in vaccine development.
The work combined scientific expertise, economic evidence and actuarial analysis. It showed how risk can be quantified and communicated to decision-makers.
Economic outcomes
The analysis showed how development timescales and the number of vaccine candidates could influence economic outcomes. It also highlighted the importance of diversification and the risks of relying on too few vaccine candidates.
The project demonstrates how actuarial analysis can complement scientific and economic evidence. It helps decision-makers explore possible outcomes, test assumptions and better understand risk.
Valuable output
Michael West, Deputy Chief Economist at UKHSA, said:
“GAD worked closely with UKHSA to deliver a useful and clearly presented piece of analysis within a challenging timescale. The team helped sharpen the focus of the work, communicated clearly throughout the project and produced a valuable output for us.”
Read the full pandemic preparedness case study to learn more about the modelling approach and findings.