Probabilistic flood forecasting scoping study

A study investigating international approaches to probabilistic flood forecasting and considering the issues associated with the introduction of these techniques.

From:
Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme and Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Published
17 February 2021
Category:
Understanding risks from all sources of flooding
Topics:
Big data, Flood forecasting, Flood warning, Incident management, Meteorology, Modelling, Monitoring and detection, Non-stationarity, Surface water, Understanding physical processes
Project status:
Completed
Project code:
FD2901
Date of completion:
31 March 2007

Documents

Probabilistic flood forecasting scoping study - final report (54KB) PDF

Probabilistic flood forecasting scoping study - summary (69KB) PDF

Probabilistic flood forecasting scoping study - technical report (3.6MB) PDF

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Details

Background

Flood forecasts form an important component of the overall flood warning process. However, they’re subject to uncertainties arising from measurement errors and model calibration, as well as other factors, such as rainfall forecasts. Probabilistic flood forecasting techniques attempt to reflect these uncertainties. International research suggests that they should provide stakeholders, such as local authorities, the emergency services and Environment Agency staff, with better information for managing flood events as they develop.

Objectives

The introduction of probabilistic flood forecasting into Environment Agency operational practice will be a major system development over the next few years. This study was commissioned as part of the joint Defra / Environment Agency programme of research to investigate international approaches to probabilistic flood forecasting. It also aimed to consider some of the issues associated with the introduction of these techniques.

This report covers:

  • sources of uncertainty in the flood forecasting process
  • current approaches within the Environment Agency to assessing uncertainty in flood forecasts
  • international research on ensemble flood forecasting techniques
  • possible applications of decision support systems
  • risk-based forecasting techniques in other (non-water) sectors

Findings

The findings from this project consider:

  • research needs
  • system development requirements
  • process and policy implications

Key stakeholders will need to translate the findings into specific tasks with associated budgets and timescales and consider the highlighted policy and process implications. A programme of regular review and updating of the strategy will also be required.

This project ran from 2006 to 2007 at a cost of £75,932.

Published 17 February 2021
Contents