Predicting extreme water levels in estuaries for flood warning

This project explored the way in which high water levels are currently forecast in estuaries in the UK. It also reviews other types of forecast being used in the UK and Europe.

• From: Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme and Environment Agency
• Published: 12 February 2021

• Category: Understanding risks from all sources of flooding
• Topics: Climate change, Coast, Flood forecasting, Flood risk assessment, Flood warning, Meteorology, Sea level rise, Understanding physical processes
• Project status: Completed
• Project code: W5-010
• Date of completion: 30 September 2002

Documents

Stage 2: review of external forecasts and numerical modelling techniques - final report (2.4MB) PDF

Forecasting extreme water levels in estuaries for flood warning - summary (90KB) PDF

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Details

This project addressed the need for practical ways of predicting extreme water levels in estuaries in real time. The first stage of the project reviewed the way floods are currently forecast for estuaries in England and Wales. This includes detailed descriptions of methods and the types of data available.

The second part of the project reviewed external forecasts relating to storm tides, including those in operation in Europe as well as the UK.

This project started in 1998 and was completed in 2002.

Published 12 February 2021