Effects of climate change on coastal extreme sea levels

A project estimating changes in absolute and extreme sea levels between 1990 and 2075

From:
Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme and Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Published
11 February 2021
Category:
Understanding risks from all sources of flooding
Topics:
Climate change, Coast, Flood forecasting, Modelling, Sea level rise, Understanding physical processes
Project status:
Completed
Project code:
FD1204
Date of completion:
31 March 2001

Documents

Integrated effects of climate change on coastal extreme sea levels - final report (5.49MB) PDF

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Details

This project developed guidance on changes and trends in extreme sea levels based on existing information.

Changes in extreme sea levels observed at the coast result from several interrelated elements:

  • global mean sea level (MSL) change and observed regional trends
  • regional land movements
  • tidal changes due to increasing sea level
  • changes in extreme storm surge elevations

The project made estimates about these four elements for UK coasts and attempted to create future predictions based on model predictions. Changes in absolute and extreme sea levels between 1990 and 2075 are estimated from model projections.

Reliable quantitative analysis like this is of great value for coastal defence purposes. More work is required to resolve some of the uncertain elements in order to generate useful qualitative estimates for the UK and other vulnerable coasts.

This project ran from 2000 to 2001 at a cost of £64,310.

Published 11 February 2021