Development and demonstration of systems-based estuary simulators (ERP2)
This project used a systems approach to create a prototype model for predicting how the shape of estuaries might change in the long term.
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The project investigated an alternative, yet complementary, approach to help understand how estuaries change shape over time. This involved applying a systems-based approach to estuary environments.
The project created a formal definition of estuary systems by mapping the different elements involved and showing how they interact using behavioural statements and diagrams. This definition of an estuary system maps a set of influences between the processes involved and the elements relating to the estuary shape. This was used to develop a prototype estuary system simulator.
The simulator brings together linked sub-systems for inner and outer estuary zones and for the interaction between the estuary and the open coast. It includes additional variables to represent engineering interventions such as coastal groynes, seawalls, and dredging.
Systems-based thinking is a well-established concept in geomorphology. However, ways of converting systems diagrams into practical simulation tools have not previously been investigated. EstSim applied these systems-based concepts to estuaries in a way that makes it possible to predict how the shape of estuaries might change over the long term and in response to other factors such as environmental change or engineering interventions.
This research demonstrates the potential of such a systems-based approach.
This project started in 2004 and was completed in 2007 at a cost of £235,000.