Combining factors for better predictions of extreme water levels in estuaries

This project developed better ways of estimating how often extreme water levels might happen by combining all the factors that cause them.

From:
Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme and Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
Published
11 February 2021
Category:
Understanding risks from all sources of flooding
Topics:
Coast, Flood forecasting, Modelling, Monitoring and detection, Sea level rise, Surface water, Understanding physical processes
Project status:
Completed
Project code:
FD0206
Date of completion:
31 March 2000

Documents

Joint probability of extreme estuarine water levels - summary (38KB) PDF Joint probability of extreme estuarine water levels - executive summary (228KB) PDF Joint probability of extreme estuarine water levels - technical report (1.5MB) PDF

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Details

This project improved the methods for determining how likely extreme water levels are to happen in estuaries. It improved the scientific information on which guidance for operating authorities, about designing estuary flood defences, is based. It combined the best of the existing approaches into a new method for assessing overall extreme water levels in estuaries and tidal rivers.

This project looks at tides, surges, flows, wind and waves simultaneously, all of which affect water levels in estuaries and rivers. It includes a review of

  • data sources
  • single variable extrapolation methods
  • data requirements
  • methods of assessing and representing dependence between variables
  • multi-variable extrapolation methods

The statistical methods created, tested and validated make it easier to estimate how often extreme conditions might happen when brought about by the combined effect of several factors. These methods are now routinely used in UK studies.

This project ran from 1997 to 2000 at a cost of £196,420.

Published 11 February 2021
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