Climate change impact scenarios

Guidance on how to apply the information in the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios to flood and coastal defence, as well as recommendations for further research.

Documents

Climate change impact scenarios - project record (828 KB) PDF

Climate change impact scenarios - technical report 1 (767 KB) PDF

Climate change impact scenarios - technical report 2 (357 KB) PDF

Climate change impact scenarios - technical summary (243 KB) PDF

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Details

This report outlined how to use the information on climate change from UKCIP02 when working in flood and coastal defence in England and Wales. It reviewed the opinions and needs of users and placed them alongside the information available in the UKCIP02 scenarios of climate change.

Where necessary, it recommended further research to allow the flood and coastal defence community to use future climate change information consistently. Most users did not want to use their own discretion in applying climate change information. They preferred consistent straightforward guidelines, ideally in the form of contour maps of changes in rainfall, wave height and sea level.

Observations

There was a feeling that climate change calculations should focus more on the overall consequences of change. That it should be considered in the context of the many other uncertainties involved. The general uncertainty and lack of confidence in predictions of extremes concerned some users. The existence of four alternative future climate scenarios also presented a problem, without a developed policy for their use. Once established and accepted, most users argued for applying the guidance consistently and not changing it unless really necessary.

The project started in 2001 and was completed in 2003.

Published 15 February 2021