Assessing the performance of the statistical method for estimating floods

This project compared estimates produced using the method in the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) with measurements taken at sites around the UK.

• From: Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme and Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs
• Published: 11 February 2021

• Category: Understanding risks from all sources of flooding
• Topics: Flood forecasting, Flood risk assessment, Meteorology, Modelling, Surface water, Understanding physical processes
• Project status: Completed
• Project code: FD1603
• Date of completion: 31 March 2000

Documents

Automation and appraisal of the FEH statistical procedures for flood frequency estimation - final report (143 KB) PDF

Automation and appraisal of the FEH statistical procedures for flood frequency estimation_technical report (4.56 MB) ZIP

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Details

The statistical method in the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) is the main method for working out estimates of flood in the UK. It includes a series of measures for estimating the flood peak in a specific time period at almost any gauged or ungauged site on the UK river network.

This project assessed the performance of the FEH method by:

• comparing the automated results with estimates made directly from observed floods at several hundred gauging station locations
• checking for inconsistencies in the network-wide FEH estimates

This report contains important findings and recommendations that will lead to improvements in the performance of the FEH statistical method. It identifies limitations and uncertainties that should be understood when using this method for flood risk management and design of flood defences. The flood estimates produced during this project will be of value for many different uses, particularly where estimates are needed for a region.

This project ran from 1999 to 2000 at a cost of £90,000.

Published 11 February 2021