The limits of the welfare-type anti-poverty policies promoted in the
eighties in order to counter the effects of structural adjustments
programs (SAP) have led to an awareness of the need to reflect on
interactions among anti-poverty programs and, more importantly, to
conceive and put in place anti-poverty policies adapted to the different
existing types of poverty, as well as to draw attention to the factors
associated to exits from poverty.
However, the small number of studies on poverty dynamics in developing
countries and methodological differences among them have made it
difficult to identify what the implications are for anti-poverty
policies. Are the factors associated to chronic poverty and
vulnerability the same from one country to the next? What are the
features that characterize exits from poverty?
Based on a large sample of Peruvian and Madagascan urban households
(1997-1999), the importance of poverty transitions was examined, as well
as the characteristics of the temporarily and the chronically poor, with
respect to those of non-poor households. Then, through a multinomial
logit model, the specific contribution of household characteristics
(demographics, human and physical capital), but also of shocks -related
to both demographics and job market- experienced by these households, on
chronic poverty and poverty entries and exits was highlighted. In this
analysis, the impact of « geographic » variables linked to neighborhoods
(provision of public goods, income levels, human capital and employment
structure, among others) on poverty transitions was also considered. The
two latter groups of variables are rarely considered in empirical
research on developing countries (shocks are set aside in analyses
because of the simultaneity biases that exist when no more than two
years of observation are available). Result comparability was ensured by
defining the variables and formulating the econometric model in a
rigorously identical manner in both countries.
The factors associated to permanent poverty amply cover the
characteristics generally identified in analyses on « static » poverty
correlates. Nevertheless, these results do not confirm the idea that
only shocks are relevant to temporary forms of poverty. The type and
quality of entry on the job market, as well as the features of the
residence neighborhood, turn out to be equally relevant in the analysis
of poverty dynamics. These results suggest that the spatial « inequality
» dimension should be added to analyses on income and poverty transition
Urban poverty dynamics in Peru and Madagascar 1997-1999: a panel data analysis, presented at Staying Poor: Chronic Poverty and Development Policy, Institute for Development Policy and Management, University of Manchester, 7-9 April 2003. Chronic Poverty Research Centre (CPRC), Manchester, UK, 46 pp.
Urban poverty dynamics in Peru and Madagascar 1997-1999: a panel data analysis.