This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

Abstract

We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries. We investigate the issue of nonlinearities (debt thresholds) in both the cross-country and within-country dimensions, employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time-series literature adapted for use in the panel. We find some support for a nonlinear relationship between debt and long-run growth across countries, but no evidence for common debt thresholds within countries over time.

Citation

Eberhardt, M.; Presbitero, A.F. This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth. International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, USA (2013) 55 pp. [IMF Working Paper No. 13/248]

This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

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