The objective was to estimate the potential impact and economic benefits of the introduction of a microbicide of 60% efficacy distributed to 20% of sexually active adults and adolescents reached through existing services in 73 lower-income countries. This ws done through mathematical and economic modelling using demographic, behavioural, epidemiological and economic data from the published literature.
. Results indicated that over three years an estimated 2.5 million HIV infections could be averted. This translates into US$2002 2.7 billion in health care costs avoided and US$2002 1 billion in productivity savings. Impact is substantial both in settings where HIV is endemic, and where the epidemic is emerging. It is dependent on microbicide efficacy against HIV and other STI and microbicide coverage.
Watts, C.; Kumaranayake, L.; Vickerman, P; Terris-Prestholt, F.; Heise, L. The impact of microbicides on HIV and STD transmission: model projections. AIDS (2001) 15 (Suppl 1) S43-S44.