The Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research has
developed a regional climate model that can be run on a PC and can be
applied easily to any area of the globe to generate detailed
climate-change predictions. The intention is to make this modelling
system, PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies), freely
available to groups of developing countries so that they can develop
climate-change scenarios at national centres of expertise. As part of
this activity, they can use local data to assess model performance in
their region, and hence confidence in predictions.
Regional climate models have a much higher resolution than global
climate models and, as a result, provide climate information with finer
detail, including generally more realistic, local extreme events. Thus
regional climate models have the potential to produce substantially
improved assessments of a country's vulnerability to climate change and
how it can adapt.
The quality of regional predictions is limited by the uncertainties in
the global models that drive them. PRECIS will be supplied to users
together with a training course which will explain not only the uses and
advantages of the model, but also its limitations. They will be
encouraged to use PRECIS as one of a number of tools for the development
of scenarios, including global models.
The PRECIS regional climate model is already being used to generate
scenarios for India, China and southern Africa.
Meteorological Office, Hadley Centre, Bracknell, UK, 16 pp.
The Hadley Centre regional climate modelling system. PRECIS — Update 2002. Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies